Snowly does it

06z shows the LP slippin under us and a precarious Easterly flow with marignal uppers during the latter part of next week. Azores high throwing up what might be a useful ridge?

By T120 the GFS 06z block is in better shape and a cold surface SErly with the LPs further south. At this stage looks like a backtrack to some degree from the 00z, let's see where this goes....

And with some bone-chilling nights around at the moment, will we, even if just for a little while mid month, flirt with the coldest ever month level of -3.1?!?!

thanks!

Kold, where are you getting the updates from? The site doesn;t seem to be showing anything for 2010 when I look

Some quite surprising Maxima around today - some 5s on display in the CET area so could be a 1.5 or so today for the CET zone. Should be back under zero fairly soon though!

The adjusted figures also show that the 7 days 18-24 December inclusive were all below zero, the first full week of sub-zero CET days since the 12 in a row of Feb 1991. December 2009 is the first month to be 2.0c below the 71-00 and 1.5 below the 61-90 (actually 1.6) this century and is the biggest negative anomoly this century and against the prevailing 30 year average since May 96 (2.1 below the 61-90 average) and for a winter month since Dec 95 (2.4 below the 61-90 average)

Provisional will be 10.13 Once any adjutment for December is done I expect it to be 10.1 or 10.11

9.19, coldest year since the 80s.

Just get a nice surface HP over the UK and pulling a continental feed in and Feb 86 will look positively tropical! First 27 days of Jan 1814 were sub zero - let's aim for the stars and beat that record OK, fantasy cold aside, the outlook is very cold with snow showers possible throughout the next 8-10 days (anything falling from tonight on will be of snow I would say, apart from right on coasts where the sea ameliorates maybe) - where and when more organised snowfall occurs (it will) is down to more of a now and nearcast as the detail is painted in on the exact movement and flow. The GH needs watching as does the trend for it's longevity - in terms of it collapsing, little danger for cold lovers in that as for the foreseeable there is a hugh area of LP propping up any SE movement and this will tend to increase the chances of a rebuild over Scandi and a renewed/continued push from the East. Just like the December spell, this won't shift easily - and by the time it does (if it does in Jan) we will be at the ppoint of winter the cold stuff can really kick in. Yum yum

I am going to take a stab at my initial estimate being too high - please reduce my guess to 1.9.

Manley unchanged at 3.1 (3.05 rounded up) to the 30th - looks like it will finish rounded down to 3.0 Hadley is at 3.35 so will be 3.4 or 3.3 depending on 100ths rounding either side of 3.35 Last night was 1.4 so CET for the day will be in the high 2s probably and enough to see the finishing number unadjusted a rounded down 3.3 Adjustment may follow but probably not enough (0.4 required) to get us under 3 I think an adjusted 3.1 for Hadley and 3.0 for Manley is probably about the mark - 3.1 for Hadley would make December 2010 the first month to be 2 degrees below the 71-00 average since it came into being and the first month since May 1996 to be 2 degrees below the prevailing 30 year average (in that case 61-90) - December 96 was only 1.7 below the 61-90 average. 3.1 would also make Dec 09 the first month to be 1.5 degrees below the 61-90 average this century.

I am just saying what the 06z shows. It will not likely get that far North. Hoepfully not.

Around 4-6 Jan as ther LP tries to move North would provide a dumping of snow across the Midlands, SW and later the East if it occured as shown on the 06Z

Manley 3.1 to 29th still Hadley now 3.38 rounded up to 3.4 Last night's minima 1.6, so today may not see enough of a downward movement to get to 3.3 I fancy the finishing number unadjusted for December will be 3.3 and therefore we may see an adjustment to 3.0 or 3.1 (given Manley's current position) Sub 3 is now the outsider unless a dramatic revision is on the cards. Manley looks likely to finish 3.0

06z - major snow event (away from the South Coast) followed by a prolonged freeze retaining snow cover. Other ensembles = colder as the LP does not get as far north, less snowy as the LP does not get as far north. Be careful what you wish for.

We were 2.3 degrees above 2008 at end November - hence 3.5 (same as 2008) would give us 10.15 3.0 would be 10.10 or 10.11 depending on roundings sub 10 requires 1.6 for December or thereabouts (so no chance unfiortuantely) 10.12 seems about the mark

OK Manley at 3.1 to the 28th Hadley at 3.5 (3.47 rounded up) Last night down as -1.9 on Hadley so we should be at 3.4 tomorrow sub 3 and Hadley will require a downward correction, probably in the order of the Dec and Jan 08/09 -0.3 corrections - which means we have about 3 and a half cumulative degrees to play with for the last 3 days of the month (would get us in at 3.24 or thereabouts) - if minima are low we will get this but tonight for example looks above zero..... Manley should finish 2.9 or 3.0 (maybe 2.8 but that is the lowest it would go I think)

06z one of those rather memorable runs with 384 hours of bitter cold ending with what would probably be the blizzard of the century and setting up perhaps a notably cold 2 weeks of January. NErly switches to Greenland block and Arctic northerly which slips down over the UK with some still and bitterly cold weather and builds back into Scandi which gives a week of classic battleground mild versus cold with a deep LP system bringing snowmageddon as it crashes into frigid air. Deal or no deal?

No chance of sub-10 - it looks like it will end up around 10.1 to 10.15

Looks like it is 3.15 rounded up too on Manley - as such there is a reasonable chance of Manley posting a sub 3 month regardless of Hadley's final position - but running 0.4 above Manley the chance of a correction on Hadley must be fairly high and as such sub 3 is still (just about) in the ball park for Hadley too.

2.7 please

Yesterday was 4.5 provisionally so Hadley has gone to 3.6 (3.58 rounded up). Last night was -2.0 so todays fairly cool maxima will see us back down to 3.5 tomorrow. From there just three days remain in the month so at best with low minima and suppressed maxima we may find ourselves at an unadjusted 3.2 or 3.3. The next Manley update might give us an idea of how far apart the two figures are (still at 3.2 to 24th December) I would guess we will see an adjusted final result of 3.1 or 3.2 - possibly the first month of the century to be 2 degrees below the 71-00 average and almost certainly the biggest negative anomoly versus the 71-00 this century (needs to be less than 3.5 for this)

Hadley at 3.5 (3.54 rounded down) to the 26th, Boxing Day was 3.9 so well below average despite the milder conditions. However last night is a provisional 3.3 and today will come in around 6 or 7 for maxima in all likelihood so tomorrow will see us at 3.6, but should fall from there. If tomorrow sees us update to a flat 3.6, we would need the last 4 days to average -1.6 or so to come in under 3 unadjusted. However given the discrepancy between Hadley and Manley, there may be a downward correction. If 0.3 were the correction like last Jan (for example) then an average of 0.8 over the last 4 days of Dec would be enough to see us home under 3. That being said, odds look against it now - I favour an unadjusted 3.4 and an adjusted 3.2

Hadley now at 3.7 to the 23rd and last night down as -2.1 so a further fall today with supressed maxima in the western CET stations. Probably down to 3.6. If it gets cold tonight then a further fall Xmas day likely before 2 days of no or slight upward movement and then, perhaps, a slide down to New Year to finish low 3s. In terms of corrections, Rothamstead, one of the CET sites, had the lowest minima in the East of -8.7 on the night of the 22nd, Pershore also got down to -5 or so in the early hours that day. One example of somewhere I would expect to see a fairly drastic correction. It would be interesting to see where Manley sits right now, given where it was on the 20th, probably around the 3.2 or 3.3 mark.