Snowly does it

And by T168 another is tracking in behind to take over from that one. Highs over Hudson and Siberia are locking us in with nowhere for the LPs to go Edit - the only real consolation is the split in ensembles for around 144 hours. Everything downstream would look very different if te runs started following a more undercutting scenario as some of the ensembles do.

Optimism s one thing, but looking at he charts at say 120, not too far out and borderline reliable, high pressure is in all the wrong places for us to get cold - Hudson Bay, too Far East in Siberia and te Azores throws a ridge towards us. It's extremely difficult to navigate a cold spell against that set up, it relies on a bullseye undercut or, as has been said, we need amplification upstream. Not looking good out to Xmas week.

Faux zonal/cyclonic. Not mild initially, 13c Christmas Eve in a raging south westerly. Hope that's very wrong. There is nothing positive in the 12Z for cold, perhaps te ensembles will ride to the rescue.

No, but the pattern by T180 would deliver zonal. Lets split the difference. Cyclonic and southerly to southwesterly.

Oh dear..... 12z says no way back to cold for the foreseeable. Siberian high sinking and Azores combining to bring zonal awfulness. Looks bleak

The Russian High getting shunted is the equivalent of hitting reset. We may not enjoy the refreshed outcome. Have to say things are starting to look ominous for the next period (which is all that really matters). The two consistent things happening on the GFS runs at the moment are Azores ridging but not where we want it (mid Atlantic/Greenland) and a portion of the PV setting up home in Greenland after T240 or so. Unless and until these two factors start trending differently we will not see cold before the first week of January IMO.

Hmmmmm, well in the spirit of hunting for cold as per the thread header, I would suggest watching the model output for the T144 to T180 area over the next day or two. Specifically watch for the Azores ridging and/or height rises over Greenland. That's the way out of this. If they fail to materialise or get flattened we may well be stuck in faux zonal land towards later December. Eggs in the Greenland basket everyone!

For cold, generally positive movements out to T168, heights remain, the Atlantic lows are less intense and it generally looks much more amenable to a cold outcome. We really do need to wait for another 48 hours before a clear pattern once the low starts to decline or fragment is within the 90 hours area

It's not the jet that is the problem, it's the lack of energy going under the block. Whilst things will feel zonal for a few days (a week I would guess) it won't be zonal, it's stalemate masquerading as zonal. A bit like faux cold. This is faux zonal

Ok, I'm off until tomorrow night. Keep an eye on Greenland and the Azores from T156 out ;-)

I'm increasingly of the opinion that the 19/20 December is the key date for transition to favourable.

Well in terms of Xmas, the 18z is a BANK. However, as said earlier, tis is one of the outcomes the data supports but backtrack to t216 and there is the potential to et locked out on the mild side of the HP. Risky stuff.

Ok, 18z will deliver late run cold. But boy is itr knife edge. UK is battleground.......

Hmmmmmmm. It's not looking good. We need the Atlantic to push through, but it can't because of a certain Siberian HP. Bum luck, but them' s the breaks!

True but the trough will decay, so unless the upstream provides new energy for the jet, things will change and would, given the circumstances stated, probably change favourably for cold.

No, I see that too as a possible way forward. I think it's just a combo of that being T200+ away and irritation at the failsterly which is causing disillusionment.

Yes, absolutely. We need HP to our North and North West. The Siberian High is no good unless we get undercutting which draws it back, but that simply isn't progged. It's a possible evolution but not one that is favoured by output at this time. An Azores ridge to Greenland IS supported by some model output and trend. Some not all. What's the betting we get an Azores-Siberian link up morphing into a giant Euro High with a screaming jet firing lp after lp up the West coast? The trouble with snow casting at the moment is up to T72 is our cold snap and then out to at least T168 we have the aftermath of Atlantic incursion progged. So we have nothing in high rea to get our hopes,up. My prediction is that by Weds 0z suite we will start seeing some cold solutions on the models inside.T180. But will they come off?

Well the ECM is little help for cold. We are stuck out to day 9. Better hope for some flakes here tonight! Looking west as others have said is the answer. In a crazy vortex situation your enemy can be your friend and vice versa

The potential for the cold to be drawn over us at days 8/9 is still there. The trend at the moment for this time is for the Azores to be throwing a ridge up and the Atlantic system to move. With that trend we will see cold and mild outcomes over the next 3 or 4 days. Ensembles should give a flavour of the more likely outcome.

Definitely. Average weather for the winter in the UK is chilly, quite windy, sometimes wet with frosts on clear nights. We need a little extra for it to be white

A little high Frosty I'd say. Average for December is 6/7, for Jan 5/6 as maxima

Yes, Azores is ridging, it's one possible way for things to tip in our favour for cold, but it's tricky. Need the LP to move now Edit... Close by T156 to dropping through

A mild Friday for England with 11-13 possible. Ugh, we need that LP to do something else. ANYTHING else

Hopefully the entire anomaly is March! Out to T84 and the lp is deeper and further south but carries a fat wedge of mild air with it. Scotland hanging on to -5s It would need to slide under us with the cold pulled in on the Northern flank. I think it's way too late to see that happen now.

Fractionally more advantageous to T60, can't see any additional chance of frontal snow off the hilltops though Having said that, sitting on the Drumochter Pass would probably be fun come the end of the week