Snowly does it

The 1% is only for the cold winning out this Thursday/Friday. We are now so close and the models in so much agreement that I cannot see any other outcome. However, once we reach the end of the weekend (which is the minimum amount of time it would take for it to change again) then things are more 50/50 as to the outcome. As you say, the block remains and looks like it will do for some time so there is a chance of things happening to our advantage for cold later on. It would be utterly astonishing if anything other than a short term milder victory happens on Thursday and Friday. However, it is only Dec 10, we have a long long time ahead for hopeful snow.

Ok, the 06z is not going to pay ball, ridge fails. The ingredients are all there, but it will be days before any certainty can come into play. Watch the ensembles for Dec 18 onwards, they will show the likelihood of striking gold

Mid Atlantic ridge is definitely the way out of this. And it's graupelling outside

Hmmmm, there goes the saver. Still, at T150 it's all on a knife edge for how things pan out. Siberian HP is more westerly

This week? 1% After the weekend? Probably 50/50 for a return to cold after Tuesday/Weds next weekl based on ensembles and background indicators (that's on opinion, not a scientific 50/50)

Out to T120 and no dice for cold. I think we are looking for assistance from an Azores ridge to GL in about 9 days time to move things on from stalemate. The 06z position by 120 is grim, dumbbell LP tilting sw-ne. On the other hand, jet is south and heights OK in the usual places. Azores is going to be our friend (as long as it doesn't migrate and it and the Siberian HP combine into a euro high or worse a tip of Iberia to Lapland HP

and then it all gets very very messy and revert to type with a magical toppling Greenland PV reload special.

well it gets there by day 11 after a week of Atlantic attack. Lots of cherry bites required it seems. 4 days of cold weather, a week of average westerlies occasionally milder than average then Siberian HP to the rescue for Christmas? We'll see

Yeah it is looking interesting at 168, I think the Atlantic attack will certainly push through the UK initially. Heights at 168 are condusive to a cold spell but it will need a friendly catalyst. The pattern that is developing doesnt scream mild zonal at the moment, but its one of those where it could go that way. meh, tricky

12z clearly much more progressive and in line with the MetO updates - turning milder and SWerly from Friday. Whilst there are small corrections early on that go the way they need to if cold were to prolong, the overall pattern is much less cold on this compared to previous runs - especially the 6z where cold air was not far away. Here the above 0 uppers are chunky and dominant. It will be hard for a cold spell to develop if that fat Atlantic low doesnt do something different.

i would urge a note of extreme caution here. The MetO 6-15 is now following the trend of up to the 12zs yesterday and is going for average to milder in the south and wet. Of course they could just as easily have been caught out as anyone but this still has the capacity to follow the milder path. The 06z is a grea demonstration of the obstinacy and power of a decent high latitude block, but you gotta get those trigger lows.... Would hate to have to call this but still favour LP, wet and average to milder conditions for the week after the cold spell

Final figure -0.7, second coldest on record and just missing the coldest. Annual figure 8.83

Yesterday (as it stands before adjusted figures) was the second coldest December day in the CET zone since 1900.

November figure is out Kold, it is 5.2

By my reckoning, a 1.1 December delivers a sub-9 year Perhaps more realistically 1.4 by the 16th (I think) would deliver a sub-9 rolling 12 month period for the first time since the mid eighties. Rolling CET to end November = 9.15

11.3 please

11.1 please

14.8

16.9 please

17.9 please

Thread renamed TC Phet

The downward correction to May also gives us (just) the second consecutive season below the 71-00 average - Spring 2010 comes in 0.1 degrees below the 71-00 average

Odd bits and pieces of stats that jump out initially from the finalised figures The night of the 13th was the first sub-zero May night in the CET zone since 1996, the coldest May night (equally with 2 in 1979) since 1967 and the 26th (I think) example of a sub-zero May night since 1878 - equal 15th coldest May night in that series (bear in mind this was on a scan through, I might have missed one or two) The 12th was the coldest May day since 1997, so coldest of the 21st Century so far. Conversely, whilst the individual 18.1 of the 23rd has been beaten fairly recently, the heatwave of 21-24 had 4 consecutive days in excess of 17 degrees - the first tme since 1989 that May has produced such a heatwave (ironically also on the 21-24 of that month and also with a 17,17,18,17 type return)

Big downwards adjustment this month Final unadjusted figure was 11.1 Adjusted final figure 10.7 - half a degree below the long term average. Coolest May since 1996, first below average May since 1996

15.4, sultry