Duane S.

By which I presume you mean zonal? In which case (and assuming your post wasn't solely derived from personal frustration at the chart output), perhaps you could share with us you believe this to be the case?

Very misleading comment. You know full well the charts are not showing the potential they did. The milder scenario being firmed up on today was by no means a certainty a few days ago, don't make out otherwise.

Of course it could but it is not as though a technical SSW is some sort of finite tipping point. The sort of charts starting to show up in FI are as a result of a Northern Hemispheric shakeup predominately caused by stratospheric warmimngs and wave activity, these may or may not lead to an SSW down the line. Only in hindsight are we likely to know if an SSW has been detrimental to our cold chances and whilst there have been occasions when it has been attributed to that, there have been a heck of a lot more occasions when it has produced the goods. Great charts coming out this morning following on from yesterday. The overall trend is starting to become clearer, I think... EPO ridge with Wave1 forcing the vortex to our NW, Wave2 response and an Atlantic ridge will want to form but will be unable to because of the low heights of Greenland, this is likely to lead to a short term MLB around us before ridging to Scandi and the setup of a much more robust block to our NE, then look to the NW as vortex energy starts to undercut the high and the block retrogresses back west. That's the theory and if it plays out expect everything from unsettled with frequent periods of cold rain to a dry settled period to a full blown snowy Easterly as we head into 2015. Great times to be a model watcher!

One thing I do not see a flat pattern going forward and this is where things could get very interesting. Strong support for an East Pacific ridge, wave1 shunting the vortex away from the pole towards our NW, scandi height rises, wave2 response. We then become very quickly in undercut territory.

Yes but on the flip side a lot of people on here take the uncertainty of the models to mean that the Atlantic weather probably WILL happen. Assuming the chances are we will go 'back' to zonal because the models show it is also fundamentally wrong. The models will almost always show zonal outcomes, they won't always show cold ones. We can't deduce anything from that other than if a run shows cold outcomes it is because it COULD happen. Last year we didn't get a lot of eye candy chart output and there was a very good reason for that...

Initial top level warming just kicking in, as per forecasts... This is likely to last in excess of 2 weeks, with some very warm anomalous surges and likely to propagate down to lower levels. Net result the vortex will be all over the place and the charts will be too. Interesting times ahead...

Wow! Says it all in very graphic terms!! If ever there was little argument for FI begins at D4, this is surely it. 'bombing' lows as per the one forcast for then are always a completely nightmare to nail. Often it comes down to nowcasting as the exact track can be up for grabs just hours before, let alone 5 days. I wonder what are the possibilities of the pattern being pulled west 300 miles or so? Aided by increased upstream amplification has to be at least an outside chance...Now that could be a game changer!

Looking good this morning for, as SK put it yesterday, 'a disturbance in the force'! Strong wave1 activity pretty much nailed on and as was forecast back a week ago. Uptick in wave2 here as well, hints of trop led as well? Temps about to skyrocket at 10hpa, unlikely to be without consequence for a vortex looking to get its act together... Upper strat in a state of disarray again, u winds now a gentle westerly breeze at all levels and a reversal over the pole at the top which will be one to watch

Good dig of low heights into Europe on the GFS(p) by +174, could get an Easterly from that

Time for the JMA to step up to the plate an be a hero I say! I know it is being largely dismissed but there has been some degree of consistency with it (or is it just that it's the last model to let go of the notion of a decent height build in Greenland!?). It is well respected by the METO so we can't ignore it for that fact alone. So is IT out of kilter or are virtually all the other models with their sudden return of low heights in the GL vicinity out of kilter? It's not as though the background signals actually scream zonal. Late December/early January is not a done deal yet, the models could be showing a very different scenario in a couple of days time. I'm not saying we are going to see a massive Greenie high forming before 2014 is out but I do think the models are currently underdoing a 2 wave Eastern Pacific / Mid Atlantic poleward ridge setup in FI Whatever, fascinating stuff compared to your average chart watching for this time of year!

Do you mean parallel?

Appreciate the updates Chiono, I heard Alvoriaz is expecting to have to restrict passes due to it being that much higher up and everybody literally running to the hills from the lower reaches of the Portes Du Soleil to get their fix on the Xmas break week! I would imagine it could get pretty busy up there Xmas time! Latest forecast (based on the 06z GFS) had over 50cm forecast for Les Gets for the 27th / 28th, would be very nice!

Agreed, it may not have go our way but the chances are it will greatly open up the window of opportunity at least. In fact I've just had a perusal of the latest top strat temp charts, and this has got to be the strongest warming seen to date... >44 degrees!! The good news (if it were to verify of course), after a sustaned 2 week warming in the upper echelons of the strat, this would likely decimate it!

Way way too hasty to say that. Strat warming, albeit at the top initially, is due to start in the next few days and remain in one form or another for the forseeable future. I haven't seen anything that implies a true SSW but the only thing that has varied in the forecasts is the intensisty of the warming(s) run-to-run (up and down), other than that, from the moment it was forecast, it has dropped nicely down towards T+0.

Looking at the Ens, factor in what is likely to occur in the States and you can see how zonal Atlantic driven weather may actually now be the favourite outcome as we head into the New Year. FAR from set in stone though. Plenty of water to get under plenty of bridges before we start getting too confident on that score! Personally I think we are heading, with blips, towards a decent cold spell in the new year

Very unusual to see such a deep low track south and keep its relative intensity. Normally to be treated with high suspicion, especially from the GFS but looking at the likely direction of the jet, more than viable. Details far from confirmed though. Personally, I hope it does come to fruition in all it's glory, I'm not into the oh it looks dangerous I hope it doesn't verify camp, it's this sort of exciting weather that most of us are here for!

In all reality the opposite would be more accurate. When there is no hope of cold (aka this time last year) gefs members will only show zonal(with some transient topplers mixed in) When there is genuine hope of cold (aka now) gefs will show it AND default zonal. My point being if we are seeing gefs showing eye candy charts it is for a reason (may not happen of course), if it goes more zonal it often (but not always of course) needs to be taken with a pinch of salt

Xmas Eve last year was bad down here. With literally the last major gust of the night I lost a ridge tile and very nearly a velux window in the process as the tile careered down the roof.

Seems virtually all models firming up on a pretty severe storm around the Boxing Day period. The details of which however vary wildly. From a deep depression skirting the far North to one sat out in in North Sea and dropping south. I think it is safe to say this is a genuine case of 'bombing' as that low interacts with the jet. Met must be glued to this one, a nightmare to forecast at this stage and worth remembering not only will the different placement/intensity solutions of that low have huge implications as to what falls out of the sky where and how windy it will get when/where/duration, it will also have an impact on what happens next. Upstream, no clear signal yet, all to play for still.

Poor comment. The story of the past few days is model output variability and that continues. There are 10 days left in December last time I checked.

All getting a bit tetchy in here this evening! Not really sure why, I think all in all we have taken a big step in the right direction from 24 hours ago. As to the long-since-becoming-tiresome question of whether or not the ECM has 'backtracked', or not, probably comes down to wording and people's interpretation of that wording. The general theme from the ECM is in indeed pretty much as it was, it's the outcome on the 12z that is quite different than the previous few OPs and IMO closer to the eventual mark. Bottom line, if we get the same degree of shift towards cold in the next 24 hours as today (quite plausible too taking into account the background signals) this forum is going to be buzzing by tomorrow night.

I'm off there in 2 weeks. It's quite low down but up to now I've never had a bad time there, snow-wise or otherwise! They are giving refunds for the coming week but there is no doubt things are looking more promising for the following week. Hopefully it continues that way!

As has already been said once you know those who speak sense, those who think they do but in reality don't and the 2 or 3 (trolls) who enjoy posting when we have 'downgraded' charts, then there is a predictable pattern to it all...

ECM climbdown,end of. May be a bit of face saving going on by one or two having called it wrong early in the run. Not to say it will verify but what we have after the conclussion of today's 12z suite is good step in the right direction

Let's play, spot the vortex... Strong prolonged warming at the top level, net result, this... Of course, this is all well and good but if we don't see it propogating down to the Mid Strat, yes it will help fight against any vortex reformation but ultimately could be , relatively, in vain Fingers crossed we see an uptick in Wave 2 in the coming days on the Berlin plots.