ukmoose

Now that might just be the answer we are looking for SM Moose

And these guys are trying to predict the weather TM...? Thanks anyway Moose

I'm no mathematician, John, but 7.75 rounded to one decimal place will be 7.8 I believe. Moose

Well it's time for a guess at the Feb CET. Patterns tend to repeat themselves and there's little doubt now that the first week of February is going to be above average temperature wise. There may be a few cooler nights than we had for the begining of January and day time temperatures will probably average out around 8 or 9 degrees. First week therefore between 5 and 6 degrees. Little sign of things changing very quickly with so much HP around, perhaps the possibility of some frosts to lower the CET a little, in the second week. That means 2 weeks of official winter left but we all know how strong the sun can get in February (and March) these days. I expect the daytime temperatures will begin to climb with air arriving largely from the southern quarter. This will offset the cooler nights of the second week and leave us with a CET of around 6 degrees. So that's my reasoned guess please - 6 degrees C on the button! Moose

I feel my prediction for the upcoming 'cold spell' was fairly accurate but I admit to being taken by surprise by one thing - the snow that was deposited in my region in the early hours of Wednesday morning which provided a covering of an inch or so (2.5cm in new money), perhaps even a little more than that. This is an unusual feature these days - any snow that is - so it's even more surprising given the warm winter we've had. I didn't expect it here. Even saw a few snow men - the kids must have wondered what it all was. The last couple of days have been cold with sunny spells - nice. Sadly, but as expected, the daytime temperatures were just too high and the snow melted. That is a common feature of 'cold spells' now - an inch or so if we're lucky, gone by the end of the day. Still, it was nice to see and the last few days have been good. Frosty this morning and again tonight. That could just be winter 06/07... Moose

An excessively mild winter indeed so far suggests the pattern will continue. However, having been forced in to making a very early punt for January and not doing terribly well, I'm just going to hold off for a few more days. Why? Because there is still a lot of uncertainty about where the high pressure cell is going to locate. Chances are the month will be dominated by more high pressure than low - it's just a question of where the HP will spend most of its time. If it stays to our south west it will feed in dry and quite mild air for the first half of Feb, maybe longer. If it shifts further north and/or settles over the top of us it may well be chilly with lower night time temperatures for a week or two. I think one of these two situations is most likely and as there are a few days of Jauary left, it might just be worth a late entry. I don't see a very cold or snowy February but it's a close call for mild or chilly. I'll wait a while.... Moose

The wrong thread I know - but I can hardly start one for January just yet! However, as I will be off line for some time and unable to post I would like, if possible, to put my marker down for January as I may not be back in time for the midnight deadline and would hate to miss out! My feeling now is that December is going to be close to breaking records (for warmth, not cold) and January, though cooler than December, is going to be pretty mild. I would like to be cheeky and ask whoever opens the January thread to include my prediction of 5.8 degrees. Thank you in anticipation! Will be back, but maybe not in time for Christmas so to everyone on the forum, A very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Here's to a cooler 2007 and happy forecasting. Kind regards to all, Moose

Evening all, Well, having been fairly successful with the last two months - (12.9 and 8.00) I think I have made a serious a serious miscalculation for December's CET. There does not appear to be much on the horizon for even average temperatures, let alone lower than average and my punt of 5.4 at the moment looks like being way below the mark. As it stands, I think we are looking at a record for December - whatever that stands at. Still, I have made my bed and will have to lie in it - I think it is going to be extremely uncomfortable though and very painful (metaphorically speaking) for many on this forum. I will stick my neck out and say forget a cold period of any consequence in January if the present trend continues. After that, it's good night Vienna. The next three to four weeks will detemine the course of winter 07....and it don't look good mamma. Moose

Hi Snowman and fellow ski bums, Well, not looking great at the moment is it? High temperatures and no snow to speak of as far as I can make out. Lat season wasn't the best either actually (the year before was better when we went). It's all a bit worrying. We're off to La Plagne in February - just hoping that things begin to turn around in December to get a good base down. Temperatures need to drop pdq. Will keep watching the website and ski forecasts and hope for a turn around soon. Moose

Thanks Stratos! Correction - I've swapped Norwich for Fort William in March. 10/12/06 Aberdeen 3 14/01/07 Glasgow 5 23/01/07 Edinburgh 4 26/01/07 Carlisle 3 04/02/07 Dundee 2 11/03/07 Fort William 3 Moose

High! Moose

A little early...but I'm going for 5.4 for December. Mostly mild and breezy with a couple of short frosty spells in the second and third weeks. Very mild between Christmas and into the New Year but quite possible colder in the north at times with snow over the hills at least. No snow in the south at all. Moose

Indeed - I seem to remember several occasions that winter of very heavy rain falling for several hours which then turned to snow and continued for several more hours with dropping temperatures. Driving up to Scotland for New Year, we only just got through at Shap before the road was closed by heavy snow. It was a winter with some noticeably heavy falls of snow on several different occasions. It's very unusual now (can't remember the last time) for heavy rain to turn to snow which then settles with very cold air digging in behind. Classic conditions for a heavy fall of snow as the cold air undercuts the very moist air allowing the precipitation to fall as snow and settle easily even on previously very wet ground. Great winter indeed. Well researched once again Mr D. Moose

Sorry SM you've lost me with this post. What are you saying actually?It's warmer now than whenever...so...if it's not a really really mild winter, it's not so bad after all...? Moose

Well, yes. I was around in that winter. It's hard to separate out though from other winters in the early sixties as I was only 6 or 7 at the time and every winter then seemed to be snowy and cold (which it obviously wasn't). I can certainly remember huge snow drifts from around that time ( having to dig the snow away from doorways just to get out in the morning and the same for getting my dad's Ford popular out of the garage), and absloutely freezing cold dark moonlit nights. (Fewer street lamps, less traffic, deep snowfields and full moons- only the latter now remains). House insulation was not great in those days and icicles the size of drainpipes used to hand from the eaves and window sills. We used to throw snowballs at them to try and knock them down. Sledging down the old clay tip hills and right across the thick ice on the deep clay holes - not advisable I know buit we didn't know any better then and the ice was thick; chipping the ice off the inside of the windows when we woke up was also great fun. My memories are probably a little mixed but some must be of 62/3 as I can remember so much snow and frozen vistas. Happy days.... (Not around in '47 I'm afraid but my old uncle used to swear it was the coldest winter he ever knew and he was born in 1908)! Moose

Depends which CET values one looks at. There's a bit of a problem here as some sources say the winter months were below average and some don't. Take the humble Beeb for instance. Accoording to their data: January was + 0.6 the 1961 to 1990 average; February +0.2 and March + 0.6 Most people seem to be under the impression that we had a 'cold' winter last year. By recent standards that's true, but by measuring agiinst long term trends, it isn't. We have a problem if we can't agree whether last winter was above or below the long term mean. Are temperatures rising throughput the year (all seasons)? Yes. Has this been a trend for a number of years? Yes. Is it statistically significant? Yes. Can we pretend otherwise? Yes. Moose

Sorry, only just read this - very funny SF. I love it. Can't wait for the rampometer to start. Who will be first I wonder and when... Brilliant! Still laughing! Moose

What an interesting read Mr D - well done. I remember talking to relatives about that winter and can confirm all that you have reported. It was truly staggering in scale for the British Isles and must have been spectacular. It will not be repeated so keep hold of those charts! Moose

The year has been interesting in some ways but not surprising and I believe it is an indication of what is to come. The summer period was long (lasting from May to October) and largely very warm indeed. This pattern will continue - warm or very warm summers starting early and lasting well in to the autumn season with the summer heat reluctant to move and difficult to dislodge. Generally very dry with occasional thunderstorms breaking the drought. The winter season was interesting in that there were several attempts made to introduce cold air to our shores. It almost made it but never quite did and largely failed to deliver and we ended up with nothing much. The significance is that that is as cold as it will get in these shores in the foeseeable future. Last winter was 'cold' by modern standards. Don't expect a repeat. The only difficult thing to tell at the moment is whether our winters will be wet or dry. There is every indication now that this winter will turn out to be drier than first thought. Maybe not as dry as last winter but dry nonetheless and mild. No months will be below the long term average. I know this will not be a popular post but there it is. Sorry. Moose

I never cease to be amazed by the facts that you unearth Mr D. It's hard to believe winters could have been so mild in the 19th Century. Great stuff - just hope it stays in the past! Moose

I do find this historical data incredibly fascinating. It surprises me that there were such wild fluctuations in temperature between one winter month and the next. Is there any chance that some of the records might have questionable accuracy? Just a thought. Moose

Absolutely Moose

The suspense is killing me. Is it 12.9 or not?? Moose

The world's richest nations need to invest in developing ones to provide practical alternatives to cutting down trees. It would be cheaper (now and in the long term) to pay for 'set aside' forests on a huge scale in the rainforests that are threatened. It's also vital to cut carbon and methane emissions globally - invest in the technology that is out there, improve it by a factor of 10 and make it available to the growing industrial nations aswell. But it needs to be done quiickly before countries such as India and China can do the same sort of damage that Europe, USA, Russia et al have done. Needs five things though - complete trust, honesty, cooperation and commitment and investment. From governments. Hmmm Moose