ukmoose

I'd like to echo that. Many thanks for putting in so much time and keeping it going. Great stuff guys. Moose

A disappointing outlook. I have been concerned for some time that the high pressure to the south of us would develop as a very dominant and difficult to shift feature, hence I'm going to have to go for a very mild but not unusual 7 degrees please. Thanks, Moose

That's great. I agree with all three proposals. Jacko and SF. Thanks very much. Moose

Well thank you, Snooz. I'm not really that grumpy...I have my lighter moments! Moose

I very rarely disagree with your observations SF knowing that they are founded on a high degree of expertise, analysis, objectivity and common sense. By my own admission, I adopt a much more lazy and error strewn approach! I didn't mean to imply that a cold December would be the harbinger of a winter to end all winters! Merely that to my highly inaccurate eye, a cold spell or two lasting several days each is likely to indicate a pattern that has a fair chance of re-setting in later in the winter. No cold spells in December to my untrained eye suggests little chance of any sustained cold later in the winter. I would define sustained cold as at least one week of sub zero night time temperatures and day time maxima struggling above freezing with perhaps the odd ice day thrown in. I would argue that the chances of getting this now are very slight indeed (just based on the last x winters and factual rises in winter average temperatures) and with no cold spells in either December or January, I feel February is pretty likely to turn out on the mild side as well. February, once such a treacherous month, has, I think, lost its bite. I do not rule out snow and the odd short cold spell at all. Last February for instance, in that nightmare of a winter, produced a couple of freezing nights down to minus 6 and 7 and some pretty heavy snow for this region. It didn't last though, and that's my point really. It didn't get past the two day toppler phase that winters have become. As I said, I am very unscientific in my approach and probably deserve the criticism I get for it! (Younger members of this forum probably wonder what on earth I am on about ' a week long cold spell indeed! What kind of grumpy old sod is this?) Moose

Is the winter going to go pear shaped? It depends on what one hopes for or 'expects'. If, like most people of this forum, one hopes for sustained cold and snow, then, given recent winters and a not very promising start to December, then yes, it has a fair chance of going the way of the pear. Of course we can't write winter off after just one a poor week in December and most things (if not all things) are possible) but the longer December fails to deliver, the less chance we have of any sustained cold in January. (February, whilst in the past a very cold and potentially snowy month, is pretty much doomed if there's no cold in December and/or January these days in my very humble and not very popular opinion). I think someone recently made a point about December's weather (Roger maybe?) and indications for the winter. Whilst a cool November is perhaps an advantage, it is not a necessity by any means. [Probably the only time I am likely to agree with WIB]. However, I do think an average or colder December is a prerequisite for any chance of sustained cold for the rest of the winter. If anything, this is now even more important than it used to be given the warmer seas we are now surrounded by. If December turns out the way if the pear, I think you could put your savings on the rest of the winter following suit. If December is remotely average, there's always a chance. Chocolate sauce anyone? Moose

There really just hasn't been a 'marked cool down'. It's cooler than last year's record smashing warmth certainly but hardly a marked cool down compared to many previous years. We really can't say things are cooling down because this year has failed to reach last year's dizzy heights can we? Let's wait and see what the winter brings...To see a 'marked cool down' we also need to look at next year, the year after that and so on for the next 15 years or so which is approximately the period we have been 'warming up'. It is just not reasonable to call a cool down on one year, UNLESS we are comparing it to last year only. Moose

Absolutely, John; I clearly remember News at Ten (news reader possibly Bosanquet?) saying something like ' After the break, why it might be a White Christmas this year'... or something similar. Daft what you remember isn't it? They did get it right though. Moose

I like this thread SF, shame my song writing talets aren't really up to it. However, what about a couple of verses to the tune of 'In the bleak midwinter' In these bloomin winters frosty winds are gone they're warm and wet and windy snow and frost there's none drizzle upon drizzle cloud and murky skies leave us feeling let down by FI model lies Bah Humbug! Moose

I do remember it very well being nearly 14 at the time. I also remember they forecast it exactly one week ahead which is not bad is it? Couldn't do that now I suspect. It was ok - but 1968 was MUCH MUCH better when it snowed very heavily on Christmas Eve and the temperature was well belwo zero so it really was deep and crisp and even. Chances this year? Well, they were never very good, so 50 to 1? Moose

WIB 1. You're right, you can't do it 2. You're wrong; it has no point at all Moose

Just a question of poor timing then eh WIB? A few days swapped around and 11 plus it would be. Warm start to November though... Moose

Possibly, SF, but if it stays breezy for a few days and there's some cloud around too, I think higher minima are quite possible. I will be surprised to see lower single figures and would expect an average around 7 or 8 Monday to Wednesday with day time maxima around 13 or 14 in some CET spots that get some sunshine. The next 24 hours should prop the values up a bit too. Moose

I don't think there will be a downwards movement SM. Daytime temperatures look above average for the rest of the month and night time temperatures around average, not below. My 11.4 punt is clearly too high but it looks like a two horse race between 11.1 and 11.2 to me. We'll see. Moose

I've only just spotted this Mr D - the link is very interesting, Thanks for bringing it to our attention. Not sure the weather is going to play ball to give us a chance to see it though. Moose

I'm not sure about that. Hadley has the current CET at 11.1 and I can't see a cool down from here to the month's end. If anything, there will be a slight rise now, maybe to 11.2 and getting warmer still in to the first part of November. Moose

WIB, I'm suggesting that the October CET will average out above the long term mean. Not as high as last year's, what 13? but a degree or so. Let's see... Moose

I am suggesting, WIB, that autumns and winters are becoming warmer than they once were. Now how can I prove that to you? Let me think about that one... Moose

I agree. There is no denying the fact that sustained cold becomes more unlikely each year. A lot of people on this forum will contest it but it's indisputable if we are honest. Just look at the figures for goodness sake. It doesn't make comfortable reading but it must be read nonetheless. There are 'lies, damn lies and statistics' and there's weather data which leaps up and smacks you right between the eye - unless you happen to have your head shoved so far up an ostrich's bottom (sorry about the mixed metaphor) that you are completely safe from being struck by any wandering piece of meteorological data however sharp and accurate it might be. This autumn and winter will, almost certainly, turn out like the last 18 or so. Sustained cold? Only in your beer fridge. I know this forum is as much about hope and drooling over fantasy island model watching as it is about actual facts and what's really likely to happen and that's fine. If I'm honest, I like nothing more than to read a semi-convincing post that argues the next severe cold spell is just around the corner. I'm still wating.... Moose

Thanks, NIck for trying to explain this to me. I can appreciate that the second half of October is likely, historically, to be much cooler than the first half. However, I think this fails to factor in the "modern' climate which does not seem to the uneducated eye (ie me) to follow past trends. I can foresee that October (like last year for example) will wend its merry way not getting much cooler at all. If that's the case, October will turn out above average (again). I think it's 50 50 at the moment how the rest of the month pans out. My point, I think, is that we are more likely to get a warm end to October than a cool one meaning the CET will return higher than average (again). Octobers nowadays do not seem capable of delivering the minus 3 night time temperatures of a few years ago which led to the second half of the month off-setting the warm days of the first half. I do appreciate the rolling average criteria but I also tend to use past experience as a guide and that tells me that it will be another warm October. We shall see. Thanks again. Moose

Like the chart, Mark. Could you put me down for 11.4 please? Thanks. Moose

Really interesting post Mr D. The relatively cool monthly CET for that month after a blistering start must be down in part to the fact that the heatwave didn't last very long. By contrats, last September's record heat was sustained for the whole month and beyond. Although it has been very unsettled this summer, one notable change in the weather for me over the last 20 years or so is the propensity for weather patterns (particularly High Pressure systems in summer) to stay in place much longer than they used to. ie our weather pattern has become much less mobile at certain times of the year with High Pressure being more dominant and difficult to shift which may sound ridiculous given the recent summer we have just experienced, I know. The reverse would appear to be the case in winter with the previous blocking patterns failing to materialise or drifting away more quickly, hence no sustained cold weather. A simplistic explanantion, I know, and I don't have the evidence to back it up but I would hazard a guess that we are now more prone to longer lasting high pressure systems in spring, summer and autumn and less prone to them in winter than in years gone by. Summer 2007 being an exception after April. If I'm right, September and October will be pretty settled and warm. How's that for a non-scientific, data-less long- term forecast! B) Moose

Having been away for quite a while, I'm trying to catch up with what's been happening. August has been a surprise, I have to admit. However, it does look as though September is going to have a settled and quite warm start, bucking the trend of the past few months but reverting to type for the last several Septembers. The first two weeks look pretty settled (in the south at least) and will be pleasantly warm. If the southerlies appear, it will be warm at night too so a warmer than average start looks more than likely. The second half of September is the key. I can't see it cooling off dramatically even if it does become a little more unsettled so I am going to plump for a warmish month. 14.7 for September for me please. Thanks. Moose

Final attempt to get it right - must go and pack! 15.0C: fishdude 15.0C: Gavin P 15.6C: tinybill 15.7C: Stu London 15.7C: summer blizzard 15.9C: shuggee 16.0C: Rollo 16.1C: Mr Maunder 16.1C: slipknotsam 16.2C: beng 16.2C: highcliffe2 16.2C: TEITS 16.2C: Duncan McAlister 16.2C: ghrud 16.2C: Terminal Moraine 16.3C: Sunshine 16.3C: charlton north-downs 16.3C: vizzy2004 16.4C: Optimus Prime 16.4C: stormchaser1 16.4C: eddie 16.5C: The PIT 16.5C: smith25 16.5C: The underwriter 16.6C: Jack Wales 16.6C: Geordiesnow 16.7C: Snowyowl9 16.7C: damianslaw 16.7C: Joneseye 16.8C: Big Bear 16.8C: Dancc 16.8C: SteveB 16.8C: Glacier Point 16.8C: Magpie 16.8C: mark bayley 16.8C: osmposm 16.8C: phil n.warks 16.8C: windswept 16.8C: Paul Carfoot 16.8C: DR Hosking 16.8C: acbrixton 16.9C: Soaring Hawk 16.9C: cheeky monkey 16.9C: Stratos Ferric 16.9C: Anti-Mild 16.9C: stargazer 16.9C: WBSH 17.0C: SNOW-MAN2006 17.0C: snowmaiden 17.0C: ukmoose 17.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN 17.0C: Sundog 17.1C: Cymru 17.1C: Bottesford 17.1C: mk13 17.1C: Somerset Squall 17.2C: summer blizzard 17.2C: The Calm before the Storm 17.2C: Osbourne One Nil 17.2C: Mark H 17.2C: Great Plum 17.2C: JACKONE 17.2C: Vince 17.3C: Don 17.3C: kold weather 17.3C: norrance 17.3C: Tamara G 17.3C: Calrissian 17.4C: HighPressure 17.4C: snowray 17.5C: AtlanticFlamethrower 17.5C: Mr Data 17.5C: Village Plank 17.5C: Scorcher 17.6C: reef 17.9C: Tractor 18.0C: parmenides3 18.0C: fine wine 18.1C: Stephen Prudence 18.2C: West is Best 19.0C: Roger J Smith 20.0C: Craig Evans Moose