ukmoose

A few gremlins about - just posted in the wrong thread, 10.4 for me please.

10.4 please.

Blimey I think most early punters have opened the Christmas sherry already! 16 1.5-C: TEITS 17 0.1-C: trickydicky 11 0C: wellington boot 4 0.9C: Pete Tattum 12 1.7C: SNOWPLOUGH 5 1.9C: adamjones416 7 1.9C:snowingman 18 2.0C: Polar Gael 15 2.2C: Cal 19 2.2C: memories of 63 10 2.6C: tcc 2 2.7C: nick2702 3 3.2C: TOMB RAIDER LEGEND 13 3.2C: BarnetBlizzard 8 3.4C: pjb120 14 3.6C: The PIT 6 3.9C: JUST BEFORE DAWN 9 4.9C: SteveB Only 1 guess so far above the 71 - 2000 average of 4.2

Yes indeed - I agree it was very unusual - although the same thing happened again in January 82! (After that though, the rest of the winter turned pretty mild I think into February). I agree absolutely that it is the minus 5 to minus 10 figures that seem to have completely disappeared in our 'average' winters and like you I find it difficult to pinpoint the reason why but it is probably a combination of the factors you mention.

You have stuck admirably to your guns John about the prospect for late December/early January for some time now. Still looking good at the moment and I do hope you are right. Great read anyway - thanks for all your long range input and for your continuous and sensible moderating voice of reason. A gentleman forecaster from the old school. Happy Christmas.

Very gloomy with a hanging mist and drizzle. 8.5 C Still very dark here.

Just too much cloud trapped inside the HP to allow frosts to form which did seem likely a few days ago. Fog too could have been a possibility. On that subject, despite the line in 'Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer' I'm not sure I can recall a foggy Christmas Eve at all! Anyone? Nice thread though Teits - thanks.

The man from Brixton is indeed correct I think and I do agree with your musings here SF. As to why we miss 3C now, I would refer to the post I made yesterday. The night time minima are just nowhere near as low as they used to be. Take December 1981 the month you mention - a month I remember well. If memory serves me correctly, the lowest temperature in my region at the time was -19C some places recorded lower than this even. On several days, the maximum temperature was minus 3 or 4 - lower than many nights we get now. Also, many nights were below -8. It is these sorts of very low minima that help to achieve the sub 3 cet values and we just don't get those any more (for whatever reason). Temperatures as low as this really lower the cet and negate the inevitable warmer days. I think sub 3 is probably out of range now unless something fairly dramatic hapens to start lowering those night time minima and it is very hard indeed to see where that dramatic change can come from. It would be nice to be wrong.

I have to agree with you reef. I think I have had the very same discussions with SM before and I know we disagree. Part of the problem is that the night time minima are just not that cold. Minus 1, 2 or 3 (pretty much what we've had at best during the first two weeks of December) is not bone-chillingly cold (minus 5,6,7 and 8 would have cropped up in the past with a similar pattern) and it is these very low night time temperatures that helped to more than offset the mild days that most months do get. When night time minima only dip a degree or so below freezing, there's just not much leeway and the milder temperatures win out overall meaning the CET is never going to be very low. In short - nights are are much warmer than they used to be even in a 'cold' spell. Moose

12 degrees here yesterday, might be a notch higher today as it's actually quite bright now with some blue sky and quite warm sunshine whereas yesterday was a little duller. Breeze just taking the edge off the temperature. Nice day- if not at all seasonal. Great for golf! Moose

Perhaps a little too low?

Brave in the sense of showing resolve and determination against the odds knowing Teits' (and others') preference for cold and not wanting to disappoint!! I could sense his resolve was wavering but he still made the call! Brave I'd say.

The CET is only going to go upwards after Tuesday I think. My call of milder by mid month when I posted my CET guess will be a couple of days late but it has certainly arrived. It's a guessing game of course, but I'd say the second half of December, from Wednesday or Thursday onwards, is likely to average anywhere between 6 and 8. Quite a contrast to what has been, if not exciting or dramatic, at least a seasonal first half of the month. Recent history points very much to another mild January to follow...Would be very happy to be wrong. Moose

Very brave of you to put that chart in Teits. Not looking great at this distance it has to be said. I hate to see HP in that location at any stage of the winter, let alone Christmas Day!

Good idea Teits. I remember Bill Giles being completely caught out by the cold, snowy spell just after Christmas 2000. He forecast very mild weather (and the synoptics clearly showed this) less than a week before the snow arrived. All to play for yet... Moose

Thanks for the updates Jackone. Encouraging signs so far. I have noticed though that the last handful of seasons (for the French Alps at least) have generally started well or very well even in December, then conditions have gradually declined into January with February faring quite poorly really with mild weather and little new snow (except the highest runs) and quite a lot of rain below 2000 m. There has then been a tendency for conditions to improve markedly in March and April. The problem with this pattern is, we go in... February!! I am ever hopeful of better conditions for 09 or will recent history repeat? Moose

Well done that man.

Great work yourself, as ever, Jackone. Not a 5 minute job putting that speadsheet together - and very rapid too! Thanks very much. SF - how good to see you posting again. You have been missed! Moose

A coldish start but with much milder incursions as the second half of the month approaches I suspect. Nothing cold enough to get below average but probably not so bad for modern winters so I'll go for 5.3 please. Thanks. Moose

Thanks for that Jackone - I'll check out the website. We did go to Morzine last year as well, The weather was beautiful all week with blue sky and sunshine everyday, if a little too warm for the lower slopes. Hardly any snow fell during the week - one light shower - much less than we have just had for the last two hours here in Buckingham in fact! It would be nice to get a good base down but it's still a little early I guess. Moose

Hi Jackone, Very good of you to do this amongst the myriad of other things you do. - Off to Morzine in Feb so any updates for that area of France will be much appreciated. If you could arrange perfect, waist deep powder before hand and a week of sunshine and low temperatures while we're there - so much the better! Thanks, Moose

I am often surprised by the CET SM, this last month no exception. It's certainly true there were a few cool, even cold days earlier in the month (notably the weekend of the 19th), but generally, night time temperatures were held well up in my part of the CET zone even when the day time temperatures were not that high. Doesn't matter much that 30 was not reached I don't think - 27 and 28 were recorded on several days and many more days around 24 and 25 with warm nights. I am talking really about the impression that the weather gives to the bodily senses and the 'feeling' of whether it is warm or cool. My feeling was that it was the former, not the latter in July overall which is why I thought the other CET trackers more reasonable. I know that is not scientific and clearly not accurate as far as the whole CET zone is concerned. It's good sometimes I think to 'stick one's finger in the air' and 'feel' the weather rather than just rely on stats. It's more fun! Moose

Thanks once again Jackone for putting these results together for everyone. Like a few others, I am very surprised at how low the CET figure is; it doesn't seem quite right somehow and to be adjusted downwards seems very odd indeed. Netweather's own tracker had a much more believable 16.8! Moose

So what are these 'quality controls' exactly? And why is it that Hadley always seems to revise the temperature downwards at month's end? Looking at the other CET trackers, Hadley and Manley always seem to read lower anyway - sometimes by quite a margin - and then end up being revised downwards still further. I find this rather puzzling at times. 16.1 seems low to me - despite the cool start. Moose

An 'averageish' 16.1 for me please. Thanks. Moose