ukmoose

No it wouldn't. One month or two months or a whole bunch of months makes no difference to the overall scheme of things does it?

I might do the same then!

Thanks for that - I just can't remember it at all. In fact the month of January 09 is a bit of a blur. I am amazed it came in at only 3C - the coldest winter month since when - 97? I certainly don't recall any snowfall for this part of the world. If the first week or so was cold, the rest of the month must have been pretty unremarkable with just a steady rise in the CET but nothing exceptional. Hard to believe - or was it one of those months where the CET was affected by lower temperatures in the northern part of the CET much more so than the southern part?

15 3.4-C: paul tall 44 3.1-C: Supercell 8 0.1-C: trickydicky 37 0.2C: Optimus Prime 10 1.0C: Polar Gael 42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam 3 1.2C: Snowstorm1 109 1.3C: fozi999 107 1.4C: Norrance 53 1.5C: Gavin P 57 1.6C: snowlover2009 119 1.6C: Mr Maunder 11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm 67 1.8C: Roger J Smith 112 1.8C: Polar Side 9 1.9C: alza 71 1.9C: Snowyowl9 72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST 47 2.0C: AderynCoch 49 2.0C: casparjack 45 2.1C: Iceni 56 2.1C: V for Very Cold 117 2.1C: Great Plum 63 2.2C: vrtualsphere 101 2.2C: Cal 65 2.3C: damianslaw 38 2.4C: sufc 103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006 92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection 106 2.5C: artic fox 114 2.5C: Don 126 2.5C: Snowman0697 39 2.6C: kold weather 51 2.6C: pjb120 60 2.7C: snowmaiden 80 2.7C: adamjones416 102 2.7C: Tonyh 125 2.7C: Thundery wintry showers 58 2.8C: Magamoonflake 124 2.8C: reef 6 2.9C: mike Meehan 48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower 95 2.9C: mk13 78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN 90 3.0C: davehsug 99 3.0C: ned 31 3.1C: Paul T 35 3.1C: izi 73 3.1C: The watcher 88 3.2C: TomSE20 118 3.2C: ukmoose 7 3.3C: Koppite 113 3.3C: Jack Wales 121 3.3C: DR Hosking 46 3.4C: Anti-Mild 59 3.4C: SteveB 69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW 14 3.5C: BARRY 55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister 77 3.5C: The PIT 2 3.6C: mark bayley 115 3.6C: lostobsessed 1 3.7C: summer blizzard 19 3.8C: Mr Data 22 3.8C: Pete Tattum 41 3.8C: shuggee 50 3.8C: high ground birmingham 52 3.9C: Paul Sherman 23 4.0C: fozfoster 123 4.0C: rikki 25 4.1C: osmposm 24 4.4C: Milhouse 13 4.5C: mullender83 12 4.9C: Paranoid 5 5.6C: James M 27 8.0C: Craig Evans Only 5 guesses above the January average so far. Several revisions downwards in the list above. Can we really get a sub 3 month after all these years? I guess it's on the cards the way things stand...

At the moment it is looking as though areas just inland from the coast are going to catch a few showers, some possibly heavy. It looks like the kind of set up that restricts snow to these regions - further inland (beyond 20 to 30 miles) probably dry and clear. Then see what happens in to next week. I agree that the good thing is that the cold is setting in at last from today and may allow things to become interesting sometime next week. But hey, cold and frosty is not bad is it?

15 3.4-C: paul tall 44 3.1-C: Supercell 8 0.1-C: trickydicky 37 0.2C: Optimus Prime 10 1.0C: Polar Gael 42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam 3 1.2C: Snowstorm1 109 1.3C: fozi999 107 1.4C: Norrance 53 1.5C: Gavin P 57 1.6C: snowlover2009 119 1.6C: Mr Maunder 11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm 67 1.8C: Roger J Smith 112 1.8C: Polar Side 9 1.9C: alza 71 1.9C: Snowyowl9 72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST 47 2.0C: AderynCoch 49 2.0C: casparjack 45 2.1C: Iceni 56 2.1C: V for Very Cold 117 2.1C: Great Plum 63 2.2C: vrtualsphere 101 2.2C: Cal 65 2.3C: damianslaw 38 2.4C: sufc 103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006 92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection 106 2.5C: artic fox 114 2.5C: Don 39 2.6C: kold weather 51 2.6C: pjb120 60 2.7C: snowmaiden 80 2.7C: adamjones416 102 2.7C: Tonyh 58 2.8C: Magamoonflake 6 2.9C: mike Meehan 48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower 95 2.9C: mk13 78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN 90 3.0C: davehsug 99 3.0C: ned 31 3.1C: Paul T 35 3.1C: izi 73 3.1C: The watcher 28 3.2C: Snowman0697 88 3.2C: TomSE20 118 3.2C: ukmoose 7 3.3C: Koppite 113 3.3C: Jack Wales 16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers 46 3.4C: Anti-Mild 59 3.4C: SteveB 69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW 14 3.5C: BARRY 55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister 77 3.5C: The PIT 2 3.6C: mark bayley 115 3.6C: lostobsessed 1 3.7C: summer blizzard 19 3.8C: Mr Data 22 3.8C: Pete Tattum 41 3.8C: shuggee 50 3.8C: high ground birmingham 52 3.9C: Paul Sherman 23 4.0C: fozfoster 25 4.1C: osmposm 24 4.4C: Milhouse 13 4.5C: mullender83 12 4.9C: Paranoid 5 5.6C: James M 27 8.0C: Craig Evans

15 3.4-C: paul tall 44 3.1-C: Supercell 8 0.1-C: trickydicky 37 0.2C: Optimus Prime 10 1.0C: Polar Gael 42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam 3 1.2C: Snowstorm1 109 1.3C: fozi999 107 1.4C: Norrance 53 1.5C: Gavin P 57 1.6C: snowlover2009 11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm 67 1.8C: Roger J Smith 112 1.8C: Polar Side 9 1.9C: alza 71 1.9C: Snowyowl9 72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST 47 2.0C: AderynCoch 49 2.0C: casparjack 45 2.1C: Iceni 56 2.1C: V for Very Cold 117 2.1C: Great Plum 63 2.2C: vrtualsphere 101 2.2C: Cal 65 2.3C: damianslaw 38 2.4C: sufc 103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006 92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection 106 2.5C: artic fox 114 2.5C: Don 39 2.6C: kold weather 51 2.6C: pjb120 60 2.7C: snowmaiden 80 2.7C: adamjones416 102 2.7C: Tonyh 58 2.8C: Magamoonflake 6 2.9C: mike Meehan 48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower 95 2.9C: mk13 78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN 90 3.0C: davehsug 99 3.0C: ned 31 3.1C: Paul T 35 3.1C: izi 73 3.1C: The watcher 28 3.2C: Snowman0697 88 3.2C: TomSE20 118 3.2C: ukmoose 7 3.3C: Koppite 113 3.3C: Jack Wales 16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers 46 3.4C: Anti-Mild 59 3.4C: SteveB 69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW 14 3.5C: BARRY 55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister 77 3.5C: The PIT 2 3.6C: mark bayley 115 3.6C: lostobsessed 1 3.7C: summer blizzard 19 3.8C: Mr Data 22 3.8C: Pete Tattum 41 3.8C: shuggee 50 3.8C: high ground birmingham 52 3.9C: Paul Sherman 23 4.0C: fozfoster 25 4.1C: osmposm 24 4.4C: Milhouse 13 4.5C: mullender83 12 4.9C: Paranoid 5 5.6C: James M 27 8.0C: Craig Evans Here is the up to date and revised CET list. 72 entries so far. I think the record is over 100? Maybe wrong.

January 2009 was 3C (which is colder than I remember I must admit. Can't think of any particularly cold weather for January at all though clearly I am wrong.) Before that, we have to go back to 1997 to find a January CET below 3C (2.5C). Then we have to go back another 10 years to January 1987 to find a Jan CET below 3C (0.8C). So only two Januaries recording a CET of below 3 since 1987. Five Januaries (2002, 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008) in the noughties have recorded a CET of more than 5C.

15 3.4-C: paul tall 44 3.1-C: Supercell 8 0.1-C: trickydicky 37 0.2C: Optimus Prime 10 1.0C: Polar Gael 42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam 3 1.2C: Snowstorm1 53 1.5C: Gavin P 57 1.6C: snowlover2009 11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm 67 1.8C: Roger J Smith 9 1.9C: alza 71 1.9C: Snowyowl9 72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST 47 2.0C: AderynCoch 49 2.0C: casparjack 45 2.1C: Iceni 56 2.1C: V for Very Cold 63 2.2C: vrtualsphere 65 2.3C: damianslaw 38 2.4C: sufc 92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection 39 2.6C: kold weather 51 2.6C: pjb120 60 2.7C: snowmaiden 80 2.7C: adamjones416 58 2.8C: Magamoonflake 6 2.9C: mike Meehan 48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower 78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN 90 3.0C: davehsug 31 3.1C: Paul T 35 3.1C: izi 73 3.1C: The watcher 28 3.2C: Snowman0697 88 3.2C: TomSE20 7 3.3C: Koppite 16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers 46 3.4C: Anti-Mild 59 3.4C: SteveB 69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW 14 3.5C: BARRY 55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister 77 3.5C: The PIT 2 3.6C: mark bayley 1 3.7C: summer blizzard 19 3.8C: Mr Data 22 3.8C: Pete Tattum 41 3.8C: shuggee 50 3.8C: high ground birmingham 52 3.9C: Paul Sherman 23 4.0C: fozfoster 25 4.1C: osmposm 91 4.2C: ukmoose 24 4.4C: Milhouse 13 4.5C: mullender83 12 4.9C: Paranoid 5 5.6C: James M 27 8.0C: Craig Evans There you go. Discounting Craig's guess, nothing higher than 5.6C.

15 3.4-C: paul tall 44 3.1-C: Supercell 8 0.1-C: trickydicky 37 0.2C: Optimus Prime 10 1.0C: Polar Gael 42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam 3 1.2C: Snowstorm1 53 1.5C: Gavin P 57 1.6C: snowlover2009 11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm 67 1.8C: Roger J Smith 9 1.9C: alza 71 1.9C: Snowyowl9 72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST 47 2.0C: AderynCoch 49 2.0C: casparjack 45 2.1C: Iceni 56 2.1C: V for Very Cold 63 2.2C: vrtualsphere 65 2.3C: damianslaw 38 2.4C: sufc 39 2.6C: kold weather 51 2.6C: pjb120 60 2.7C: snowmaiden 80 2.7C: adamjones416 58 2.8C: Magamoonflake 6 2.9C: mike Meehan 48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower 78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN 90 3.0C: davehsug 31 3.1C: Paul T 35 3.1C: izi 73 3.1C: The watcher 28 3.2C: Snowman0697 88 3.2C: TomSE20 7 3.3C: Koppite 16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers 46 3.4C: Anti-Mild 59 3.4C: SteveB 69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW 14 3.5C: BARRY 55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister 77 3.5C: The PIT 2 3.6C: mark bayley 1 3.7C: summer blizzard 19 3.8C: Mr Data 22 3.8C: Pete Tattum 41 3.8C: shuggee 50 3.8C: high ground birmingham 52 3.9C: Paul Sherman 23 4.0C: fozfoster 25 4.1C: osmposm 91 4.2C: ukmoose 24 4.4C: Milhouse 13 4.5C: mullender83 12 4.9C: Paranoid 5 5.6C: James M 27 8.0C: Craig Evans Includes the latest guesses.

Historical I know as it refers to yesterday and the day before, but what does anyone think about the GFS programming of 'the' low which turned out to be much farther west and north than the other models suggested but dare I say it, was nearer the mark in the end? Just a thought...

Last update for tonight 15 3.4-C: paul tall 44 3.1-C: Supercell 8 0.1-C: trickydicky 37 0.2C: Optimus Prime 10 1.0C: Polar Gael 42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam 3 1.2C: Snowstorm1 53 1.5C: Gavin P 57 1.6C: snowlover2009 11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm 67 1.8C: Roger J Smith 9 1.9C: alza 71 1.9C: Snowyowl9 72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST 47 2.0C: AderynCoch 49 2.0C: casparjack 45 2.1C: Iceni 56 2.1C: V for Very Cold 63 2.2C: vrtualsphere 65 2.3C: damianslaw 38 2.4C: sufc 39 2.6C: kold weather 51 2.6C: pjb120 60 2.7C: snowmaiden 80 2.7C: adamjones416 58 2.8C: Magamoonflake 6 2.9C: mike Meehan 48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower 78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN 31 3.1C: Paul T 35 3.1C: izi 73 3.1C: The watcher 28 3.2C: Snowman0697 7 3.3C: Koppite 16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers 46 3.4C: Anti-Mild 59 3.4C: SteveB 69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW 14 3.5C: BARRY 55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister 77 3.5C: The PIT 2 3.6C: mark bayley 1 3.7C: summer blizzard 19 3.8C: Mr Data 22 3.8C: Pete Tattum 41 3.8C: shuggee 50 3.8C: high ground birmingham 52 3.9C: Paul Sherman 23 4.0C: fozfoster 25 4.1C: osmposm 24 4.4C: Milhouse 13 4.5C: mullender83 12 4.9C: Paranoid 5 5.6C: James M 27 8.0C: Craig Evans

The list so far. Three people going for below zero (clearly too much cognac in the Christmas pud). 11 going for below 2 C and 12 more below 3C hmmm Must have been strong sherry in the trifle. I just wonder of we are all getting a bit carried away with la la land projections in the models...? 15 3.4-C: paul tall 44 3.1-C: Supercell 8 0.1-C: trickydicky 37 0.2C: Optimus Prime 10 1.0C: Polar Gael 42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam 3 1.2C: Snowstorm1 53 1.5C: Gavin P 57 1.6C: snowlover2009 11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm 67 1.8C: Roger J Smith 9 1.9C: alza 71 1.9C: Snowyowl9 72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST 47 2.0C: AderynCoch 49 2.0C: casparjack 45 2.1C: Iceni 56 2.1C: V for Very Cold 63 2.2C: vrtualsphere 65 2.3C: damianslaw 38 2.4C: sufc 39 2.6C: kold weather 51 2.6C: pjb120 60 2.7C: snowmaiden 58 2.8C: Magamoonflake 6 2.9C: mike Meehan 48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower 31 3.1C: Paul T 35 3.1C: izi 73 3.1C: The watcher 28 3.2C: Snowman0697 7 3.3C: Koppite 16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers 46 3.4C: Anti-Mild 59 3.4C: SteveB 69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW 14 3.5C: BARRY 55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister 2 3.6C: mark bayley 29 3.6C: adamjones416 1 3.7C: summer blizzard 19 3.8C: Mr Data 22 3.8C: Pete Tattum 41 3.8C: shuggee 50 3.8C: high ground birmingham 52 3.9C: Paul Sherman 23 4.0C: fozfoster 25 4.1C: osmposm 24 4.4C: Milhouse 13 4.5C: mullender83 12 4.9C: Paranoid 5 5.6C: James M 27 8.0C: Craig Evans

A couple of things - the low has not been easy to predict as you know with the GFS predicting it further north and the other models further south. It has not done 'as predicted' because none of the models could quite get it right even as late as last night when no-one knew where the front would finish. A very difficult set up to call. There have been quite a lot of suggestions for snow from Wednesday onwards actually over recent days - although too far ahead to take seriously admittedly. Actually heavy snow was predicted by the BBC last night and again this morning for this part of the region even if it was then forecast for rain tomorrow. We have had snow here - still a little around in fact in sheltered spots. Asd usual, the north has done better for sustained cold but that's what we would normally expect.

The first 50 posts for January CET guesses. Will update the rest later. 15 3.4-C: paul tall 44 3.1-C: Supercell 8 0.1-C: trickydicky 37 0.2C: Optimus Prime 10 1.0C: Polar Gael 42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam 3 1.2C: Snowstorm1 11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm 9 1.9C: alza 47 2.0C: AderynCoch 49 2.0C: casparjack 45 2.1C: Iceni 38 2.4C: sufc 39 2.6C: kold weather 6 2.9C: mike Meehan 48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower 31 3.1C: Paul T 35 3.1C: izi 28 3.2C: Snowman0697 4 3.3C: snowlover2009 7 3.3C: Koppite 16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers 46 3.4C: Anti-Mild 14 3.5C: BARRY 34 3.5C: Gavin P 2 3.6C: mark bayley 29 3.6C: adamjones416 1 3.7C: summer blizzard 19 3.8C: Mr Data 22 3.8C: Pete Tattum 41 3.8C: shuggee 50 3.8C: high ground birmingham 23 4.0C: fozfoster 25 4.1C: osmposm 26 4.2C: SteveB 24 4.4C: Milhouse 13 4.5C: mullender83 12 4.9C: Paranoid 5 5.6C: James M 27 8.0C: Craig Evans

Some of these predictions look a little on the low side to me. I will post the entries later on.

The low that was so troublesome to predict has had the last laugh and has succeeded in doing what most of us hoped it wouldn't. Nothing but rain for the whole of this region as it edged further north than most expected and has stalled a little it seems preventing the colder air from digging south east. Could well rain for the next 24 hours though not necessarily very heavy at any stage. At least it's cold rain and not the warm mush we usually get. The charts for the weekend, let alone Monday, whilst looking good, are a long, long way off and should not be taken for granted. This current low has just proved how difficult it is for us to get sustained spells of cold even when things look extremely favourable. A disappointing last 24 hours for cold lovers I would say, though not totally unexpected. Anything could happen over the next few days but the spells of heavy snow that were a possibility a day or so ago have receded, at least for the time being. Patience required as there is still a chance for something better in a few days time.

That's a very impressive temperature range for a relatively small area. Not often we get that. Probably shows how difficult it is proving for the milder weather to head northwards. Still white over here but not as 'crisp'. Not keen on getting the 8C from Brighton!

Yes Kold, I agree it's not likely to be overly mild. It's just not going to be as lovely as it has been. The wonderful Christmas card scene will gently melt away. (Maybe next week...) Does look like holding on in the north though as you say.

Absolutely! Did the same thing myself night before last. Two steps out the door and wallop. Wife and daughter still laughing about it. Who cares about the sore elbow!

Oh dear - their loss, not yours!

It is apparent (sadly) that the milder air is not too far away from this area now but it is quite hard to believe looking out of the window. Thick frost covering everything still with fog reforming in the last couple of hours (milder weather approaching?) but still of the freezing variety. Looks a picture with snow on the ground too. If only we could bottle this for Christmas Day!

It's so beautiful here this morning. Lying snow, hoar frost on the trees, sunshine just picking out the details through the lingering frozen mist - a real Christmas card scene. Really lifts the spirits. Can't imagine why anyone would want it to warm up myself.

The jet stream moving south is a big plus for us and helps to allow cold air from the poles to move southwards. Unfortunately (if you like severe cold) it is also the Gulf stream that keeps us so warm for our northerly latitude. A warm current originating in the Gulf of Mexico and forced our way all across the Atlantic to our shores. That never moves and is our 'warm blanket and always modifies and cold temperatures we do get.

I'm no expert, but I don't like the look of the fax chart for Christmas Day. HP looming large over Spain and a LP system waiting in the wings. Someone please tell me I"ve not read the chart correctly because that doesn't look pretty to me.