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IanT

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Everything posted by IanT

  1. IanT
    Correct.
  2. IanT
    And back.
  3. IanT
    My scrolling thumb thanks you too.
  4. IanT
    My (iPad) scrolling thumb says thank you for the workout….
  5. IanT
    Agreed - when might we expect to see it? The form horse here is for the system to head south of early modelling with France experiencing more of an “event” than southern UK.
  6. IanT
    I think it’s a little early to be cancelling plans for Thursday. There is clearly still a range of outcomes in terms of the track and intensity of the system, and forecast confidence will rise in the usual way as time progresses. The yellow warning is there now to raise awareness, so yes it’s time to contemplate/advise that some flexibility might be needed. But not yet to make definitive decisions as to what you will and won’t be doing on Thursday.
  7. IanT
    Torrential rain, thunder and lightning here S of Woking in Surrey.
  8. IanT
    My sense - and it is no more than that - is that the MetO are getting too trigger happy with weather warnings. The forecast(s) I’m looking at look seasonal, nothing more. If warnings are so frequent and for weather that is neither particularly threatening or unseasonal - then they will lose their impact. The same is true of “storm” naming. Not every system is a storm. We’ve seen the impact of sensationalism in mainstream journalism and politics; it will be a shame if the same happens in meteorology.
  9. IanT
    This yellow warning has just been updated - essentially to cover a larger area westward. However the MetO forecast for my location (S of Woking, well within the area shown) has hardly any rainfall at all. I’ve not seen that before, usually the forecasts and warnings seem well sync’ed. We’ll see which is right!
  10. IanT
    Is there a known linkage or pattern sequence - in fact anything beyond mean reversion - between an Atlantic driven October and a more settled cold November..?
  11. IanT
    An excellent education on display here
  12. IanT
    It’s always difficult to get the scientists to accept that. For them the technicalities are everything!
  13. IanT
    It’s not taking place in SE England…
  14. IanT
  15. IanT
    This. If we see 2degC (as shown by some NWP models) here early on Monday morning, it'll be a shock to the system for many..!
  16. IanT
    Can you post a link to the source of this please..?
  17. IanT
    Not sure I understand your key. What is “SVR - Black outline” and why does it have a white outline? What does your forecast say for the area bounded by Oxford-London-Brighton-Southampton? Is that SVR because it is within the black outline covering Southern UK? Or Low because it is a light grey shaded area? Perhaps it’s just me. Sorry if so…
  18. IanT
    I’m interested too. I like interesting…
  19. IanT
    Will the winds forecast for Saturday be a notable event? Is there a thread somewhere to discuss? MetO have a yellow warning out; I assume those are set in absolute not relative terms. 45-50mph gusts for my area would be distinctly unseasonal.
  20. IanT
    Wow. Over what time period?
  21. IanT
    Freshening up here, with some very heavy showers and stronger gusts.
  22. IanT
    Very very tricky… It goes without saying that higher is better, but it’s easy to see how this could result in quite a widespread fall also. MetO is right to put the warnings out. Dew points will be the key and they can generate and sustain their own change in precipitation. And the heaviest snow falls we see in this country tend to happen when temps are above freezing….
  23. IanT
    Indeed. That’s where I tend to spend my time.
  24. IanT
    I’m not thinking about mid-March just yet..! Reasonably blue here from Feb 6th to 12th:
  25. IanT
    “PM shots”…? Seems to be the phrase du jour, although a new one for me. Mentioned three times in the last page or so. What is a “PM shot” please?
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