IanT

Lancaster, generally.

3.3c low early this morning here in Surrey. Sunny, should be a beautiful day but I think I’ll wait a while before setting off on my bike ride…

Wow! How was that measured..?

Some extraordinary values.

What is modelled is at the high end of historical experience, especially perhaps given the large area under threat. But there is more scope for downgrades than upgrades. It’s time to watch the runs, not yet time to “rush preparations to completion”…

Interesting that the yellow warning for Friday is at the lowest point of the unlikely to very likely scale, but “high impact”. I think we see this very very rarely. The Met Office describe “high impact” resulting from wind using the following language: ”Widespread danger to life from flying debris. Widespread structural damage e.g. roofs blown off, mobile homes overturned, power lines brought down. Transport routes and travel services affected for a prolonged period. Long travel delays. Closure of main bridges, road and rail networks in many areas, and significant disruption to air and ferry transport. Widespread and prolonged disruption to power, and/or other utilities and services. Danger to life from large waves/beach material being thrown onto coastal route, sea fronts and coastal communities.”

10m above your height.

The characterisation that the models are “struggling” is inappropriate. Better to recognise that many different evolutions are possible from the current set of starting conditions, and that model output reflects this.

Luckily Neil Ferguson isn’t involved in NWP.

Errrr.....

It’s only the second week of January. Surely a little early for “winter is over”, especially with some powerful features in play elsewhere on our side of the northern hemisphere..!?

For my Surrey location, my very accurate gut feeling says “not a chance…”

Thunder and heavy convective rain here between Woking and Guildford.

Newlands Corner..?

Am I correct that any convective activity is likely to be centred E of the rainfall..?

I call that a streamer.

As always the emotionally charged posts are from people reacting to the gap between their hopes and reality. Not to any gap between forecasts and reality.

>2 weeks away... Seriously - what is the chance this verifies? 10% maybe..?

It’s really interesting to see the number of posts here referencing the MetO app. Clearly there are many people for whom this is the trusted source. If the MetO app doesn’t show snow for them, they are not going to be persuaded otherwise. Strange and disappointing!

Whenever we get close to the starting line, people always start to talk about downgrades. These posters are just making the mental adjustment from what they hoped for (something better than the best forecast of the last week for their postcode!) to what is actually forecast. Thus it is only a downgrade within their personal frame of reference, hence all the counter-posts saying that they don’t see a downgrade etc etc etc. First bottle of Making Tracks just finished. Thinking about a second. Maybe a Lynch-Moussas and some cheese straws...

You can’t work it out at all to the level of precision you are seeking. The system/boundaries might easily be +/- 30 miles from where they are modelled right now. Counties - yes, counties plus N/E/S/W - yes, postcode areas - possibly, postcode districts & below = no chance. In truth it’s a radar/now-cast situation from this point.

It's hard to believe the low will remain as tight and organised as it is presently modelled. But it isn't impossible, so a named storm is a real possibility. Could be a three-way tussle for naming rights though. It might be interesting to look back at the starting conditions for Emma. I am 100% confident we'll get a "snow bomb" headline from the Daily Mail though...

Solved. Meteociel.fr - Tableaux GEFS v12 WWW.METEOCIEL.FR La météo en temps réel et prévisions météo pour la France, Observations météo, modèles numériques et logiciels météo (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, GEM, AROME...

Could you point me to the source of these please? I have been unable to find it through google etc.

History is in the past topo!