IanT

So the reputation of GFS has been fully rehabilitated today. It’s a great model and we should favour its output? just trying to keep up…

You’ve got 8 days @Scott Ingham…

Is this what was referred to earlier this afternoon as “…the South East event tomorrow”..?

I don’t think what the models show for the SE tomorrow can yet be described as an “event”.

Meteociel.fr - Tableaux GEFS v12 WWW.METEOCIEL.FR La météo en temps réel et prévisions météo pour la France, Observations météo, modèles numériques et logiciels météo (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, GEM, AROME, ARPEGE, JMA) Always sorted by value please…

The inevitable result of panic buying last week by MOD thread residents…

Evidently with great success…

It’s very simple. The model/resolution/run that shows the most wintry outcome for SE England is “correct”. The others are “struggling” and their output is “for the bin”

That was me…

Only 9 sleeps to @Scott Ingham day…

Up late, so still Thursday for me. We’ve seen hours of very heavy rain here since about 2pm. Apple’s weather app suggests 24mm, but I suspect more in places where downpours have happened. I’ve been out this evening. The incidences and volume of surface water everywhere is as high as I’ve ever seen. Many stretches of road flooded already, and safe to assume that the situation will deteriorate in rural areas as run-off occurs.

There are some posters here for whom even that won’t be enough…

Why do we need to stop posts/posters with viewpoints that differ from yours? Serious question.

The Ingham Singularity has been pushed back a day to Jan 16th?

Yep. The models seem to show us a 62/63-like period every year, typically at the Ingham Horizon (T+288). Not saying it won’t happen this time round - at some point it will - but we should all be mindful of the verification record for modelled events of this nature.

It hasn’t happened yet !!!

All this, and it’s only a week since January was declared a write-off…

When the chase is on, I like to look for the point in time where the models are showing the most wintry outcome. The point of maximum forecast interest if you like. Great news when it’s T+48, but it’s often T+240… I propose that this point is now referred to as the “Ingham Singularity”. Experience has taught that us that when the Ingham Singularity recedes it’s a bad news for coldies. When it advances the opposite is true. I hope to see the Jan ‘24 Ingham Singularity hold its position, or move towards us in the coming days

Good man! I hope you are spot on. But I also hope that the fowle and unruly mob here are prepared and ready to forgive you if not…

@Scott Ingham day = Jan 15th..? Hard to keep up with the volume of posts here!

Yes it would. Everywhere to the N and W of Bromley would get an absolute pasting.

As a fan of lived extreme weather (the opposite to our friends on the MAD thread!) I thought I’d take a calculated risk and take the dog out across the golf course to experience the wind. It was way too wild to take pictures/film; I didn’t feel I could take my eyes away from scanning the air for flying branches. Two large - really large - trees downed within sight/earshot in the space of five minutes told me I’d miscalculated so we turned round and ran for home. Safely back now. The gusts are something else for Surrey. I think this is going to cause a lot of damage/disruption somewhere.

Must be the climate crisis…

Thanks. I’m not going to look - your summary is enough for me…

Several bursts of low thundery grumbling here. I originally thought it was my wife. Torrential rain also.