Southender
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Posts posted by Southender
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:ph34r: :o :o
how can you call something that hasnt happened yet a non-event? NO ONE knows whats going to happen...yet...the next run might or might not be different..wont know until tomorrow...I think one or two people may be surprised
Ok maybe calling it a non-event is a bit premature.
I just hope this winter will be better, in terms of snow amounts, to all the others (for our small area of SE Essex anyway) Seems like we miss all the fun, time and time again, whilst places mere miles from here, continue to get pasted. For instance, places like Basildon (12 miles) had around 10cm and Upminster (20 miles) had about 18cm of lying snow yesterday. Whilst we had about 3cm!
I'm sure Paul S knows where I'm coming from...
Anyway, lets hope for a major shift and we finally get a pasting here in SE Essex!
Fingers crossed, plenty of winter time left yet.
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Yes
Tinybill that output was based on earlier Model runs and the UKMO Has sided with the GFS On its later run so expect all those warnings to possibly come down in the next 24-36 hours and/or be shifted North-Westwards. Channel Lows are ridiculously hard to Model if not impossible right up to T12, I am still seeing it like I did this Morning and going with Paul B on YES We will see some Snow but expect it Friday into Saturday and Not a lot of it to make any real serious impact.
Paul S
Oh dear.
Another let down for SE Essex. :lol:
Still, theres plenty of time left in winter yet...
On to the next event (or not) :lol:
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If it is heavy enough it should not be a problem, remember the Thundersnow 2004 event, went from Soaking wet to 5cm in 30 minutes
I do indeed remember that. But that was up there with the heaviest downpour of snow we have ever seen, plus we had hail fall on top first If I remember rightly, which obviously helped the snow lay.
I think it will snow at some point on Fri/Sat, but I remain sceptical about it being able to lay on top of the heavy rain that is forecast before.
Hopefully there will be a shift of the low and we end up on the right side of it for it to be all snow. Although there's about a 1% chance of that happening at the minute :ph34r:
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I remain sceptical about Wed Night into Thursday but Friday.............Dare I say is nearly nailed on for Snow, why dont you think there will be any Snow Friday when all Models are in agreement and has good Ensemble Support David ??
What are you seeing different about Friday that all the organisations are not
Cheers
Paul S
Hope your right mate, after the weekend/Mondays disappointment for this area.
Even if it does snow down our way, it will be falling on top of a lot of wet ground after Thursday's rain wont it? Not good for lying stuff?...
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Can someone give a definitive answer on when the low is due to hit and be at its most potent please?
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I know experience tells me we should be getting clobbered from Newly Developing Showers but they are fizzling as they hit land to the ast of me and then Re-Invogarating about 5 miles further East and running along the Thames, I am totally baffled by this and I am so confident the kids WILL Be in school around here that all their School Uniforms are ready for em in the morning.
Like I say need to see what is causing this because I am trying hard to understand all this from living in the area for 36 years.
Paul S
Tis indeed strange Paul.
Like yourself I have lived in the area for nearly 30 years and I have never known an event, with this setup, deliver so little...
What on earth is causing it.
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Very Strange Weather going on at the Eastern End of the Thames with regards to this Thames Streamer. The Convective Showers are brewing in our Snow Machine (North SEA) And then lose all their energy as they hit the land (Eg Me SE Essex) and then regenerate further along the Thames towards Dartford, Greenhithe, and Se London.
Only have a dusting here
Paul S
Indeed. Most disappointing eh Paul.
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Snow showers really ramping up in the eastern Thames, could well see a pretty long spell of snowfall along the thames Estuary heading into London as well it appears eventually.
Personally I'm watching the showers in Southern Kent right now.
Fingers crossed.
Not much to write home about here as yet...
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The only issue for SE Essex though is because the Thames snow streamer tends to beef up showers further west down the Thames, though thats not to say you shouldn't get a good wallop.
As I keep saying this is still only the start of the main event, instablity and forcing are still both increasing from the east over the next 6hrs.
Paul S, watch for thundersnow soon!!
Cheers.
Will also be looking for Thundersnow!
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I'd go as far as to say S.Essex may well see the heaviest falls its seen since Feb 1991 given the snow showers will only pick up strength in the next 6-9hrs or so as forcing increases and even 15cms may well be conservative IMO there...classic I have to miss such a great event hehe!
Hope your right mate.
Been a bit disappointed with the showing thus far. A very light covering of mostly snow grains at the moment.
Fingers crossed for more beefy activity overnight.
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The latest from the gfs early stages the mild sector in relation to that small low coming up from France is now pushed slightly further east with colder air being advected back into the se quite quickly. Still have to see what the other models do , this may lead to a slight change in the forecast.
Less chance of snow to rain tomorrow evening then?...
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Yes southen and Thurrock.
Basically 10cm tonight from the TSS and a further 5-10cm tomorrow afternoon prompted the warning.
Thanks.
Bring on the streamer.
Chances of getting into London on the trains in the morning = 0%!!!
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Right Guys Update
Convection has REALLY Started now, So much so that I have a Huge Anvil to my South East (Probably Neilsouth's Snow as he is South Est of Me) and Snow is Now Starting here again from a New Shower which has kicked off just to my North East.
THE REAL FUN IS ABOUT TO BEGIN!!!!!
Paul S
Paul, what is your take on the METO Extreme Weather Update?
Does that include us? on the map I'm sure I can see a little speck of red over the Southend borough?!...
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Yes
Not had any Snow for a good 35 minutes now and Blue Skies, maybe that was the Colf Front going through ??
As for the Warnings, well I Am completely Baffled, It seems the only areas they have left out are the One that got the Worst Slamming in 1987 and 1991 eg
South East Essex and North Kent so I would think these areas would go RED, hope the duty guy has not made a Monumental Cock Up, or he/she could be Toast as some of the most prone areas in this kind of Set-Up have no warnings
I get the feeling we are going to get pasted Paul.
Are you bothering using C2C in the morning?
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WE HAVE FLAKES
People in Leigh look out your window
YAY
I see them Paul.
Good sign for later...
Roll on the Thames Streamer!
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Lol
I get the C2C Into Town as well, Well not Monday have already decided it will be too tricky to get the kids to school
But suspiciously might be able to trek to some Hills around here, Two Tree Hill is pretty good as long as you dont go too fast and cross the road near Leigh Hill. Paul S
Haha. Do you think C2C is going to come to a grinding halt Monday morning then? (wrong type of snow etc!)
Whats that stretch of hills near Chalkwell Stn called? They were always good back in the day, except for crashing into the fence at the bottom near the train line!
Infact scrap that, lets head to Southend and take on the cliffs opposite Westcliff Casino!!!
God, I hope we aint let down again mate!
We are due something special, we always miss out down here.
Fingers crossed the mild sector doesn't materialise...
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Lol
No-one is mentioning SE Essex, Might have to rip up the Weather books I have becuase I was always led to believe that anything East of North (Eg ENE) Wind would produce the goods for SE Essex, which is partly the reason I moved here, great views over the Estuary towards France for the Summer T-Storms and Snow from that rare and elusive Cold to our east, Steve has not mentioned us
at all tonight so will have to see.Just a point of Interest though
2003 - ENE Gave 8" (20cm) of Level Snow
1996 - ENE Gave 12" (30cm) of Level Snow
1991 - ENE Gave 15" (37.5cm) of level snow with 10ft Drifts whipped up by the biting Easterly Gale
1987 - ENE Gave 25" (63cm) of level Snow with 15-20ft Drifts
There are countless other ENE Events for this Region in my Weather Book with Snow Streamers that have delivered the goods so I am quietly confident, but no-one else seems to be for me
Paul S
I'm with you Paul.
Waxing the sledge ready for a trip down Belton Hills tomorrow night/Monday, as I'm not going to bother with C2C into Fenny, rush hour monday!!
All hail the Thames Streamer. We have the front row seat here mate!
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I'll take a Thames Streamer thanks very much. I haven't seen one since the 90's... An amazing sight if it comes off believe me. I will be the first to report such an event, as Im located at the mouth of The Thames. Bring it on!
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Temperature down -1.9C already with the frost persitting all day in the shade. Looking forward to this evenings/night event.
Evening KS, nice to see a fellow Shrimper on board!!..
So what do you make of tonight/tommorow for us lot in the SE?..
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Can anyone tell me what sort of depths can be expected in the Southend-On-Sea area of SE Essex please?
But suspiciously might be able to trek to some Hills around here, Two Tree Hill is pretty good as long as you dont go too fast and cross the road near Leigh Hill. 
Snow Watch: London, Se England & E Anglia
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Wont be anything but for us snow starved SE Essexers eh Paul!
Maybe Fri/Sat though?