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Southender

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    East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by LeighShrimper

    Very cold in the SE still as well, looks like its going to be a bit colder then the GFS expected yesterday here in the SE, shows what a proper feed from Europe can do. Maxes today probably will be between 2-3C generally here in the SE and the home counties region.

    NE airflows tend to be rather gauling in my area when there is no disturbances in the flow as the showers nearly always are dying out when they reach my location and so they give a very light flurry whilst places 20 miles NE of me got a good covering from them. At least there shbould be troughs coming down which should give some good snowfall I'd have thought, though no chance my location gets upto 5cms...

    Yep. Currently 2.2c right here on the coast. With a light SSE breeze. I'd expect a top temp here of around 3.5-4c around 14:00hrs.

    The main thing I notice is it is clouding over a lot. A very watery looking sky and that smell of snow is in the air. Am I the only weirdo who can recognise that distinctive smell of ice an snow?

    East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by LeighShrimper

    My interest lies in the late thurs/fri/sat window, this is when I feel that Kent has its best chance to see some convective snow. With cold 850's, lower heights, a biting east/northeast wind and dew points below freezing, anywhere could see snow but as always areas such as the North Downs and Weald are my favoured spots for anything particularly significant.

    After looking at some of the data available I think 5cms is quite possible especially if we see any streamers set up, which IMO could give depths of up to 10-15cms in more favoured locations around the Thames Estuary.

    After that my feelings are that we will have to wait for little disturbances and bands of showers working their way down country to give us any significant snowfall and these can pop up inside 24-36 hours so there will be a lot of nowcasting and radar watching. Then of course we may or may not have a breakdown which could give us transient snowfall here, which may or may not be noteworthy.

    So all in all lots to look forward to over the coming 5-7 days here in the extreme SE I feel.

    James

    I am on he Kent/ Surrey borders near Woldingham.. pretty high here and I would expect to see the first lying snow in the SE .... already -1.5 Here we go then!

    A Thames Streamer. Yes please. After the quite unusual one of last Feb, where we missed out in the Southend area. Which is unheard of in Thames Streamer situations.

    Ramping Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by LeighShrimper

    Do you know what LS I cannot believe some of the posts in the Cold Discussion thread at the moment. Upon looking at the GFS This morning i was pleasantly surprised at how good it looks all the way through until next Tuesday starting tomorrow. The 500hpa charts look good from Wednesday, the Uppers are cold enough, there will probably be troughs coming in from the East which means frontal snow and not hit and miss showers and after that a very sharp cold front with frontal snow coming from the North for the weekend, it then stays cold with snow showers later in the weekend and early next week. But from the look of the posts over there you would think it is going to be 8c and Mild over the next 7 days.

    I reckon we could get a 1cm or 2 between now and wednesday, then another dusting Thursday before more significant snow for either Fri/Sat or Sunday. Totals are hard to pinpoint at the moment due to the strength of the easterly and how strong the Cold front is going to be over the weekend.

    Paul S

    My thoughts exactly.

    I'm hoping a Thames streamer will setup sometime from Weds onwards. But, this time it hits us hard (unlike the strange events of Feb - great article on that btw)

    Ramping Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The funny thing is when the Mods, Staff or Admin use the term "christmas pudding" it stays but it turns into Christmas Pudding when you quote our posts :bad::bad: :huh:

    Paul S

    Hi Paul,

    What's your thought's on the next 10 days or so for our area of the world?

    Maybe a short lived streamer?

    Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The 12z utterly rakes the NE of England, wouldn't be all that shcoking to see some big accumulations up there. The run has backed off from the SE's chances BUT I'm willing to bet its rather underdoing any showers, if you get a blast like that I'm willing to bet the SE and EA would be hammered, as would the NE and obviously eastern Scotland.

    Would also be very cold, temps would really struggle to reach 0-1C by Friday on that run.

    Lets hope so Kold.

    I was hoping for a Thames Streamer to setup. A few models showed the perfect conditions for it. But lately they have downgraded somewhat in terms of that eh?

    Still, hopeful of some white stuff down here in SE Essex. Although I'm expecting sleet/wet snow at best going by latest charts...

    The Whining Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hmmm from a pure IMBY point of view, I'm not particularly impressed with the model outputs since yesterday. The beasterly and snow potential has all but diminished for Mon/Tues. OK, looks set to get very cold Thurs onwards but in terms of snow potential (again IMBY) it doesn't look anywhere near as threatening as it did. Probably sleet/wet snow at best (IMBY)

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    That just says "Schnee im Bergland" (snow in the mountains). Things really aren't looking that snowy at all I'm afraid from the 00z runs, except maybe on the coasts. Before next Thursday the pressure is either too high or the uppers aren't cold enough to produce either good convection or anything other than wintry showers (again near the coasts due to a weak flow). Thursday itself (144) looks a lot better:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

    However, by Friday the flow is much weaker again, even though the uppers are cold, especially over Europe: :cold:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png

    Yes, sorry got a little carried away there!

    Snow in the mountains of London!? Where would you find those!

    Still, fingers crossed we all get a nice covering next week. Bring on the Shortwave!

    Model Output Discussion - Tuesday 20:25 -->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Following on from my previous post I have found a good example of what im on about.

    Look at these charts for Dec 25th 1978. Note the track of the LP systems and the blocking to the N.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119781225.gif

    However following on from this on the 27th the LP systems are begining to track further S, even though we have a S,ly!

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119781227.gif

    On the 31st we finally see the UK on the cold side of the jet and blizzards hit the UK.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119781231.gif

    Now in saying all of this I do agree with Nick because the quicker the better because if we're looking for the cold airmass to arrive at +192 then more can go wrong. However in saying this if you want a blizzard then you need LP systems to be tracking near to the UK and then its just a case of luck i.e being on the N side of the LP. Although what often happens is the LP is pulling in much colder E,lys so rain turns to snow.

    For me personally I would prefer my snow to come via convection and these LP systems can go to Spain/France. :)

    Agreed. I don't know about you but here in SE Essex we always end up on the wrong side of any lows zipping in. Giving us rain or wet snow/sleet at best. Give me a Thames Streamer anyday. Although Feb's one was very poor for here, which was most strange.

    Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Don't you just love this from the Independant on Sunday:

    Best Overall Comment on the Weather: At the peak of Monday's online moanfest about the difficulties of getting to work, David Taylor of Southend wrote this on the BBC message board: "As I started working from home a year ago, I did find it nearly impossible to get out of bed and trudge across the landing to my office. The BBC wasn't very helpful... there were no reports of holdups near the airing cupboard and the bathroom interchange was almost impassable. Gritting was nearly useless – but with the cold floors, it was to be expected. Cancellations were widespread. No bacon and eggs. I had to make do with a replacement toast service. I hope I get home tonight."

    Haha, sums up our lack of snow perfectly!

    Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    GFS 18z parallel run is very similar to the op. run re. the track of the low on Mon/Tues. N.French coast - Belgium.

    Here are the 500s and ppn type for that period.

    http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/57/h500slp.png

    http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/5...ctypeuktopo.png

    http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/63/h500slp.png

    http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/6...ctypeuktopo.png

    http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/69/h500slp.png

    http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/6...ctypeuktopo.png

    Even with that track I cant see much snow south of the Midlands until the low clears away east and drags colder air

    back south with some back edge snow for a short time, moving SE.

    As Friday, -5 850s dont get south of the Midlands until the low clears east of the Greenwich Meridian.

    http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/66/h850t850eu.png

    Regards,

    Tom.

    Thats the million dollar question isn't it Tom!

    Who knows it could dive further South than that, then it would be game on! But it could also go North again, aaarrrggghh!

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