[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Well there’s definitely a streamer brewing in the Estuary. Light snow falling here in Southend.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Floatylight said:

Surprised given the minus temps all day the thick snow on the paths  has melted so fast.

Snow all day and no settling?

Not even ice on the ground?

Those wind chill temps are very low so I can't quite work it out.

The ground is still warm and wet from the mild spell leading up to this.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I know the snow chance are still possible for tomorrow but it feels like this spell is running out of steam and on its way out.

Snowfall would place this in my Top 10 for my lifetime but closer to 10 than 5 probably settling around about 8th. 

Depth of Cold would put it around 7th over the last 48 years.

The problem with this spell as others have noted has been the build up, you simply cant expect the temperatures 2 days before to be 12c, the day before 7c and with no frosts to cool the saturated ground down there really was going to be problems with laying snow. Snowfall intensity has been pretty awful and nowhere near the 3 big spells of 1987, 1991 and 2010. 

All 3 of those spells were the traditional Sunshine and Shower type Easterlies with convection growing upto 15,000ft and Thundersnow reported in all of them, this spell like the last Beast in 2018 have relied on showers coming along through a stratus deck with no sunshine between the showers.

So again although not anywhere near the best it certainly has been good enough for sledging, snowman building and Ice Days which is what you would expect from a Scandinavian sourced airflow in early February.

Hope the cold holds on and any Atlantic wetness is deflected away, would love to see a week of cold Scandi High dry weather to get that cold into the ground and who knows the next snow to come after that could be of a much better quality.

Yeah i'd go along with those thoughts. I said yesterday it feels like a watered down version of March 2018, but with some similarities.

But places like Ipswich etc have probably had one of the most memorable spells ever and others the most forgettable.

Considering we are such a small island, the variations when it comes to snow is just unbelievable really.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Fax charts suggest a Thames Streamer 06:00hrs Weds, then shifting south to a more Mid-Kent/Sussex streamer 12:00hrs Weds.

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

@Paul Sherman Can feel the pain. The amount of times this has been us!

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, moogyboobles said:

Did something just happen to the radar?
I look away for five minutes and suddenly it's all clear in Essex!

It's broken, don't worry!

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Finally some proper snow showers blowing through Southend!

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, seaside 60 said:

Stupid question but how come the temp has gone up over freezing, I thought there were no mild sectors now.
Also I am not impressed with the temps they dont seem cold enough lol.

The snow is still melting here from ground up esp near buidlings it seems that the ground is so so wet and no real cold to get dwn and freeze the ground.

By the way is it a record yet because it hasn't stopped snowing here since sun am, although it could snow like this for the whole month and we wouldn't get much laying.

Easterly wind coming off the N.Sea will always raise the temps a bit. Will see a bit of a thaw today maybe even the dreaded drips this afternoon. We have some cold nights to come so shouldn’t be too much damage to the snow pack

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Just been out to do a measure up looks like 2 Inches extra and still snowing nicely here. 

Max Level is 9cm with mostly 8cm where it has drifted we have some 12cm piles. Deep and crisp and even. Off out at 10am for new sledging fun

Where you heading Paul?

Leigh Cliffs?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Well. Any milder weather will be brief according to the latest METO update.


UK long range weather forecast

Saturday 13 Feb - Monday 22 Feb

It will remain cold or very cold with brisk winds during the start of this period but potentially turning milder over southwestern then western areas for a time, but with a risk of gales at times here. Outbreaks of rain and snow, potentially heavy for some southwestern areas are possible across western and southern areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the east and north. However with a continued risk of snow showers possible in central and northern areas. Further into this period, snow and attendant wintry hazards are likely to continue which could affect mainly northern areas and eastern areas but not confined to. Overall, conditions look to remain cold but some milder interludes are possible with accompanied unsettled conditions moving in from the west or the southwest.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 9 Feb 2021

Monday 22 Feb - Monday 8 Mar

After a potential spell of milder and wetter conditions for most likely western parts, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas through this period, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 9 Feb 2021

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah I think this is right, as you say if you can get a good 4-6hrs of moderate snow that will still add up to reasonably decent totals, and I can see some places that are in a good spot getting between 5-10cms with lower amounts the further west you go, maybe a couple of cms for Surrey and E.Hampshire possibly

It’s got a few hours of polystyrene balls written all over it I feel!

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Whilst I am expecting a streamer to set up I'm not seeing anything remotely like Feb 09 in the works. This looks to me to be a low end to moderate event. What do I mean by that? Well I think it could well give S.Essex and N.Kent some good snows, that will likely extend towards SE London and maybe E.Surrey and Sussex.

I think there maybe a lack of energy for them to give too much beyond that point though I suspect there maybe some snow even to places further west, though amount of snow decreasing gradually.

I suppose what I'm saying is dont go to bed and expect to wake up to 6-9 inches tomorrow. Additional 6-9cms in favoured spots seems do able though.

Need to get rid of the stratus over my head first!

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Really hope so. Going to be glued to the radar next 3 hours I think.

The front has pretty much decayed now and the North Kent energy is shrinking away south now.

Hoping we can get some proper showers going now between here and tomorrow morning. 

Polystyrene balls...
 

Mega shower coming your way!

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

12 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Clear Skies overhead briefly and wow some temp drop.

All the energy get strangled out of that front sinking south and precip decaying now.

All eyes to the Estuary for the next 6 hours, will it or wont it

Yeah. Just been outside and watched the clouds for 5 mins. Defo a WSW track to them now. Quite a drop in wind speed as well. Perhaps a lull as she clears her throat 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

7 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Have the heavier snow grains hit Southend yet? In shoebury we have blizzard conditions.

Just arrived!

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yh I know what you mean, but would ring true with the sudden turn off just offshore on the showers, usually works this way, maybe there will be a drier slot and then things get rocking and rolling again. Maybe as I took my readings at 9pm there was an ENE Wind and its predominantly NNE. But the signs are good and the clouds are now racing more WSW than SW.

One to watch for sure, also North of Chelmsford that seems to be some sort of shrinking energy so is the stuff over us going to relax south over the next few hours to set the stage for some proper showers in the early hours.

Snow forecasting and things cropping up and chopping and changing is never easy

Yeah as you say this stuff sinking South is probably killing convection opportunities proper right now. Sooner it buggers off the better. Then perhaps we can have some real showers

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Is the fact it’s ENE a good thing for us here compared to an NNE?

Yeah ENE is the classic Thames Streamer direction. But it’s not that simple unfortunately lol

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

6 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

9pm Obs

Temp is - 2.5c

Dewp is - 5.1c

Wind is ENE

Hmmmm. Let’s see if old mother Thames can deliver the goods. Not getting that vibe to be honest, doesn’t feel right. But let’s see what the radar says next hour or two.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

You reckon any proper streamers will set up tonight mate? Seems this isn’t a streamer more just a little front that’s popped up bringing light snow.

Not feeling it if I’m honest mate. Just bits and pieces I think. May get the odd moderate burst but think it’s mainly light stuff. Not seeing a proper Thames streamer setting up. Better than nothing though.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Now that’s a snow shower!...not this snizzle rubbish we are getting.

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

5 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Still hammering it down here 

Dandruff this end!

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

If SE Essex doesn’t get 5cm out of this streamer on the radar, I will eat my hat.

I think you will need to eat your hat mate! Looks like decaying over us and shifting south to be honest.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Much more substantial shower passing through my end of the Estuary now. Good signs...

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

Must be the ground temps then.. he's got wet patches where the snow was.

Wind can actually assist with sublimation also. Plenty of that about!