Yeti

February 20, 2009

I would say we are looking at 3.8 to 4c now as I still don't buy the cold from the GFS, apart from a transient "northerly" that doesn't really even deserve that name!

What we have seen this winter is that the CET can only be as good as the synoptics, even if that seems rather obvious. The beginning of January was freezing, but at the end of the day an inversion is not sustainable for that long and it's only when you have persistent high latitude blocking (and hence a very stable pattern) that you can get a truly cold CET. To get sub-3 you need proper blocking to take effect for a long time. Even the beginning of this month is a good example - NOT a decent high latitude block, with the PV never really that far away... rather like 91, we were "lucky" to have a cold pool wrapped up in the circulation, because air from that direction is not always that cold, and if you look at the charts, it shows how localised that pool actually was. Compare the beginning of Feb to charts of "old". You will notice that the pool was only ever going to last 2 or 3 days before it ran out of steam (with milder air never far away) whereas in a classic cold spell such as 56, these cover the whole of Europe and are much deeper.

This really highlights 2 issues:

1. High-latitude blocking has been very difficult to achieve (as we well know, even this winter);

2. When blocking has occurred (such as in Feb 05) the cold pools haven't been that deep;

When cold pools are smaller and shallower, the chances of it hitting our small island diminish.

February 20, 2009

Que sí hay un poco de nieve B)

Bonitas fotos....

February 20, 2009

The last two summers werent particularly cold ones, indeed, the 1980s had 6 summers that were cooler. I feel our perceptions on what a British summer on average is actually like have been heavily influenced by the last 20 years. In that period, only 4 summers (1993, 1998, 2007, 2008) were actually below average temperature-wise and even then, only just.
People generally tend to base their summer opinions on whether we get any hot temperatures and levels of rainfall of the frontal variety. Memories also tend to be short aswell, they forget before 2008 we had 5 well above average Junes in a row, not to mention two 17+C summers in 2003 and 2006, both with memorable heatwaves.

I cant imagine this forum if we got a truely cold summer (more than 1C below average). There would be prozac and wrist slitting that even winter 1988/89 didnt manage!

The last two years were OK for temperature though - I think the problem was the enormous amount of rain and lack of sunshine. Yes, they weren't that below average temperature-wise but wrt rainfall and sunshine they were both woeful.

I like days of 18-25c and sunshine/partly cloudy in the main, with the odd heatwave thrown in. In that kind of weather you can do anything (almost). The problem with Britain is that the sea keeps temperatures extremely warm at night during heatwaves compared to a lot of countries (in Spain for example temps get down to 12-15c, often, after a 30c day). The upside of that is being out at night when dawn comes at 3.30 and it's still 21c!!! Always a great atmosphere.

February 20, 2009

Not springlike here.

You know it's not spring when sunny days are cold, and cloudy days are mild.

February 19, 2009

Wow! That's still pretty impressive - the 6th coldest period out of all of those years, and the coldest since 81/82.

February 19, 2009

Is sudden or 'flipped' change conclusive evidence of lasting (interminable) change? Or is it something cyclical?
Also is twenty + years eons of time in climate history? Not being funny, but even the 80's is hardly that long ago. I can remember Fools and Horses and early Eastenders series.

I'm still very hubrised about Feb. But it won't stop an 'old' gal being happy. Night all

I know what you mean, but then I suppose it's also possible to say that we, at some point, reached a tipping point, whereupon such synoptics became nigh-on impossible to achieve. Speculation perhaps, but it would explain what was quite a sudden change.

February 19, 2009

However Stratos you might be interested in this:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=53786

It shows that our winters have actually not warmed quite as much as most places in Europe, with the exception of Spain which hasn't warmed at all.

This is only looking up to 2000 however.

February 19, 2009

Exactly Yeti, exactly. I sympathise with Tamara to one slight extent, and that is that 3C seems to have been been made very absolute. When I first made my post on the matter several years ago, the real point was VERY cold months no longer occur.
People can sit on this thread and argue all they like about possibility, but they have turned their back on an ever more compelling set of facts: It is 38 years since 4C was last breached downside in March; the previous longest run without such an outturn was 17 years; the 18 years since 2C was breached in February equals the longest gap in the record; the 22 years since 2.5C was last breached in January is already three years longer than the previous longest interval; only December still stands clear of a record run without marked cold - the current run of 27 years since 2C was breached is still four yesrs shy of the series that ended in 1715. I very much suspect that come 2013 that final marker too will have fallen. Finally, it is now 54 winter months since the last occurrence of a 2C or lower: there is no other period of its like in the CET series.
How long do you have to wait for a bus before you start to suspect that, just perhaps, the bus no longer runs?

It's actually quite alarming. What's more, I think it's been quite a sudden change.

This is because in 1987 we saw the severest cold spell of the 20th century (although Feb 56 came VERY close indeed). They were the absolute perfect synoptics and literally could not be improved - the PV coming S underneath the southern flank of the Arctic HP. The following winters were awful - Feb 91 was a good month, outstanding by modern standards but the fact is that the synoptics were NOT ideal and we were "lucky" to have such a deep cold pool underneath the high, because it could easily have gone the other way and the HP was not brilliantly orientated.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00119910208.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00119870110.gif

It was as though something just flipped, because such charts with significant 552DAM at 70º N have virtually disappeared. The couple of occasions that they have, there has been a lack of deep upper cold pooling.

Therefore it's difficult to argue for a very gradual change - the 80s were fantastic, but the 90s were poor in comparison.

Looking at the stats, it shows a sudden disappearance of severe cold months after Feb 86/Jan 87 (with the exception of 91 which I described earlier). Following this, something more gradual as Europe has warmed, reducing the effects that decent synoptics have had, such as Feb 05...

This winter hasn't even come close to those bitter -15 isotherms, let alone -20 - and when sub -10 has happened, it has been for a maximum of 1-3 days.

February 18, 2009

I'm sure that the Hale winter would have been put up as a old wives seaweed tale before this winter. Shades of Farkinsim 'nuff said' material.
However it is now quite surprising how it attracts significance to try and demonstrate that this winter should have been more below average than it is.

Before this winter many were saying that this winter would deliver because it's a Hale winter.

Now when it didn't really deliver, it's suddenly an old wive's tale! (not aimed at you btw )

I personally think it's very significant that this Hale winter did not get a single sub 3 month, never mind sub 1c.

February 18, 2009

With the debate ongoing as to the exact Hale winter in the 1980s, 1984/85 was 2.7c, 1985/86 was 2.9c CET
How are we 100% certain that this is the Hale winter and not next winter?
Especially considering that many of the cycles above were 24 years.

I thought the Hale cycle changed from 24 to 23 years in the C20?

February 18, 2009

My ideal summer is a nice warm and sunny May to start with, and dry up the ground. Then for June-August to be mainly average temps (18-23c) but sunny and generally clear (superb walking conditions) coupled with 2 heatwaves and thunderstorms at some point.

Problem is I give up on thunderstorms here. I have seen about 10, max., in 13 years of living here, and only 2 have been violent!

This is compensated though by the better winters.

February 18, 2009

Lovely pics Dave.
I have to agree with your comments about the Whiby fish and chips - they are the best there is

without doubt

Thanks Brian. They really are superb in Whitby I must say! :winky:

February 18, 2009

Drove out to the East Coast today - misty all the way but on the coast it was fog-free (if a bit dull). Staithes was frozen in time, as ever. Found some great fossils at Runswick Bay and finished off with fish and chips in the capital of fish and chips - Whitby! (Recommend the Magpie café.)

If you can't be bothered to click on each individual one, they can be seen here where I posted them on a Spanish forum as full size.

Staithes:

Runswick Bay:

Whitby:

:winky:

February 18, 2009

1823 1.5

1847 1.7

1871 2.4

1895 1.2

1917 1.7

1940 1.5

1963 -0.3

1986 2.9

Assuming February is 3.5, which looks likely;

2009 3.3

ALL Hale winters have produced a sub 1c month;

They also were ALL sub 3c

08/09 breaks this trend for the first time ever - no getting away from this fact I'm afraid. A cold winter on average, but mild by Hale standards.

February 18, 2009

Mildest Hale winter ever - no real DEEP cold and snowy spell (just a lot of luck when things could have gone either way) - below average, but not massively so, and lacking at all times good height rises to the N.

A hell of a long way from the 80s IMO, but a step in the right direction.

February 18, 2009

Except thats not what my post said at all. Rather that it will be disappointing that February could well put in a rather unimpressive figure when after the first half it had the potential to be a really cold month.
Its definitely a positive and noteworthy to have a below average winter (indeed, especially so with all 3 months looking to be below the mean) however when it comes to snow amounts, remember not everyone has had a snowy winter. For quite a few places this winter has been abysmal for snow (here included, just 2 days lying - the average is 7).

Remember also, that this is now the mildest Hale winter EVER!

February 17, 2009

So just because we can speak English we should use that language to conduct our daily lives? Many germans speak English do they go to the Weatherman and ask for it in English because they can speak it nope? Not everybody speaks English the vast majority have the abilitiy to but doesn't mean that they do.

Yes, but they aren't native speakers of English in Germany! ALL Welsh ppl are native English speakers.

You're very welcome to use Welsh and it's a great thing to have, BUT I would raise questions over wasting money putting instructions etc. into Welsh when they are already in a language that everyone can understand.

February 17, 2009

Welsh is on the increase, so English isn't "eroding" it. Frankly I cannot understand why everything needs to be in Welsh these days, seeing as though you all speak English anyway. It's not as if you can't understand, is it? Also, Wales is tiny. It has nowhere near the diversity of climate that Scotland has, and not only that, it's extremely close to Exeter anyway. I think it's fantastic that Welsh is on the increase btw, but I don't see why we have to see it plastered all over everything, from UCAS to the DVLA! The latter gives you all the instructions in English, and then asks if you'd like them in Welsh. A complete waste of money IMO.

February 17, 2009

That's what I thought, until I saw these, all at low levels:

- Alicante: 17,9; 17,8

- Santander: 14,2; 14,1

- Teruel: 11,9; 11,8

- Barcelona: 15,4; 15,5

- Córdoba: 17,5; 17,6

- Girona: 14,3; 14,3

- Logroño: 13,4; 13,5

Amazing really how little warming there has been

February 17, 2009

I feel bound to say , SF, another excellent post

Bear in mind your 3c prediction/suspsicion -

Compare that to every now and then sub 2c months, sometimes sub 1C months an occasionally sub 0c months!

This says is at all for me. These days ppl talk of breaching 3c as as though this is the end of the even larger teapot.They forget that sometimes 0c, and occasionally -1c, were breached.

February 16, 2009

Again your talking as if this used to be a regular occurrence when it definitely wasn't. It is only because we had a cluster of cold spells between 1979 and 1987 that you think this was regular but prior to this...it has not been that we see -15C uppers in Winter all the time.
P.S If your expecting -20 uppers, I don't think this has ever been seen in the UK. I think 1987 had like -18C uppers.
Regards, hgb

-20 clipped Kent in 1987 and 1956 at least.

Look, I know and everyone knows it didn't happen every winter. But it DID happen! At least every 5 years and during the 80s nearly every year, sometimes more than once a year.

Also people talk of the early 70s as though they were not very cold. But even 72 shows that severe easterly spells happened. We haven't seen ONE, in 20 years!

February 16, 2009

Well I for one completely agree with you Steve - and remember like you say, the CETs don't really prove that much anyway.

The fact is that when we talk of the "even larger teapot" we are looking for those -10 to -20 uppers (-15 hasn't been seen for a LONG time) sustained over a long period of time in an UNSETTLED, NON-INVERSION type spell. That's what leads to severe cold spells, not the inversion at the beginning of January, no matter what wonders it did for the CET.

IF we eventually see at least 3 days of -10 uppers, preferably with -15 at times, and a strong block around Svalbard, then I will reconsider the above.

But this winter, we have only got half way there - the southerly jet WITHOUT the blocking to the N (even the beginning of Feb wasn't really a classic "easterly draw" block with a S'ly veering E'ly and by fortune a cold pool wrapped up in it).

Let's hope, though, that the other half will be completed in the near future.

Just to add, another challenge of the even larger teapot is to get the juicy synoptics in January, and not at the beginning of March and end of Feb.

February 16, 2009

Just posted this in the climate thread but I think it's relevant here.

We often complain about our winters warming (indeed, the whole climate) in the UK, and perhaps even more often about the "cold going south".

Well look at this data for Spain compared to other countries, and how much of an increase there has/hasn't been across the two data sets (61-90 and 71-00).

Brussels 2.5, 3,1 (January); 9.7, 10.2 (annual)

Burgos 2.6, 2.7 (January); 9.9, 10.1 (annual)

Ávila 3.2, 2.8 (January); 10.4, 10.4 (annual)

León 3.1, 3.1 (January); 10.8, 10.9 (annual)

Aachen 2.4, 3.0 (January); 9.7, 10.1 (annual)

Freiburg 1.8, 2.4 (January); 10.8, 11.1 (annual)

Karlsruhe 1.2, 1.9 (January); 10.3, 10.7 (annual)

Notice Ávila (1130m) has actually fallen in January! Burgos (856m) has increased by 0.1-0.2, and León barely noticeably.

Here is some other data, to compare with our cities:

(January 61-90, 71-00, Annual 61-90, 71-00)

London 4.6, 5.2, 10.7, 11.0

Oxford 4.1, 4.6, 10.1, 10.4

Manchester 3.8, 4.2, 9.5, 9.8

Washington 0.9, 1.7, 13.7, 14.2

Vienna-Hohe Warte (T January)

- 1931-1960: -1,4 ºC

- 1961-1990: -0,6 ºC

- 1971-2000: 0,1 ºC

Madrid- Navacerrada (T January y t annual) (NOT Madrid itself, at 1800m!)

-1931-1960: -1,1 6,7

-1961-1990: -0,6 6,1

-1971-2000: -0,6 6,4

Madrid-Barajas (t January y t annual) (Airport)

-1961-1990: 5,5 13,9

-1971-2000: 5,4 14,1

Salamanca-Matacán (t enero y t anual) (800m)

-1961-1990: 3,7 11,6

-1971-2000: 3,6 11,7

Albacete- Los Llanos (t enero y t anual)

-1961-1990: 5,0 13,5

-1971-2000: 4,8 13,6

Vigo-Peinador (t enero y t anual)

-1961-1990: 8,2 13,4

-1971-2000: 8,3 13,6

Prague:

T enero 61-90: -0,2 ºC

T enero 71-00: 0,7 ºC

T anual 61-90: 9,9 ºC

T anual 71-00: 10,4 ºC

A brutal increase there.

You might also notice that the UK is perhaps NOT the greatest affected by the warming.

Of course, some areas warm and others cool, and you still have an overall warming, but I just thought it was very interesting to see that whilst the whole of Europe seems to be getting warmer, much of Spain (at least the interior) seems to be holding around the same values. Is this indeed concrete evidence of the cold diving into Iberia like we often see?

February 16, 2009