Yeti
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I am not sure it does Kold, the ECM chart has "L" at the arctic centre at 1025mb.
The bar going through Slavbard is 1030mb on the ECM.
Look at the difference in geopotential heights though -
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn1681.gif
The GFS shows a large area over the Arctic of 552+DAM heights and a clearly split PV, with one half over NA and the other over Siberia.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh1681.gif
The ECM, on the other hand, has much lower heights (sub-536DAM) over the Arctic with the main block over the UK extending Nwards. They're not as well linked as in the GFS, in pressure or thicknesses, meaning they split apart and the block sinks SW.
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I certainly understand that which is why even im remaining cautious. However in saying that I always believe that there is a possibility that some of these awesome charts will come off. If I had the attitude that all cold spells will go pearshaped based on past disappointments then I would choose a different hobby and stick with the countryfile forecast.
The big difference for me compared to previous disappointments is the UKMO. This model has really been a pain in the backside in the past but thankfully the UKMO is very similiar to the GFS. If it was the UKMO/ECM Vs GFS then I would side with the UKMO/ECM but at the moment im thinking the ECM is wrong. Hopefully tonight we shall get some consistency between all 3 models at +144.
Yes - I've been travelling back home so I didn't see the last two days' models, but just looking at them now things are a lot more interesting than I thought they would be!
As you say the UKMO very much sides with the GFS atm (i.e. the HP extending further N and creating a stronger block allowing the PV to undercut on the Eern flank:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png
Instead on the ECM the block is lower latitude and sinks SWwards as a result.
Looking at the hemispheric charts -
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh1921.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn1801.gif
Clearly the PV fails to split fully on the ECM. If you look at the GEM, the PV splits well initially, but those shortwaves S of GL end up slicing the block in two and sending the cold into SE Europe.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2161.gif
This is what I'd be more worried about because often such shortwaves can be picked up at the last minute as we know all too well. Obviously the GFS won't pick up on these too well until the time period reaches the higher resolution and the more reliable time frame (even within T96 some nasty little changes can occur!).
The outlook is looking good either way though, as things should begin to settle down a lot by the weekend, and the -5s are progged to arrive down here by T120. It's certainly a marked improvement on the awful weather we saw in November!
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Not what I would call an outlier. It's just about the coldest member for about 24 hours at one point in the run, but never an outlier. Other members are too close to it for it to be classed as such.
Anyway, the ensembles are liable to change dramatically when it suits them, as I found out on many occasion last winter.
Sorry, it was the Aberdeenshire plot I saw first before I changed the name in the URL:
http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20091130/12/t850Aberdeenshire.png
Anyway true, last year they were all over the place.
It's interesting going from this:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh1681.gif
to this:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh1921.gif
in just 24 hours, as there are some pretty awesome height rises in the Arctic. There haven't been 552+DAM heights over Svalbard in winter for quite a while, I believe.
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Well here we are again before December has even begun, and already the ramping is well underway! The ECM has certainly reduced people's inhibitions in that respect.
However, aside from the eye candy it's weeks away from today... just remember it was only last night and everyone was moaning
As the ensembles show us, the GFS op was on the cold side and at times an outlier:
http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20091130/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png
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Synoptically it's stunning. Very little meaningful cold air on the Continent for the forseeable future which makes me think it's too early for this setup good and all as it looks. The orientation of the setup seems not quite right to get the really cold air to dig down into Mainland Europe. It's all acedemic that far out but Id prefer it late December or January.
I know what you mean, but to be fair if that chart came off the LP would undercut the block and drag in CAA from the NE. There is still plenty of cold pooling about at this time of year at more northern latitudes - it's just a question of pulling it further into Eurasia, which tends to happen later on. Hence synoptics generally need to be "better" at this time of year to create a shot of equal cold to one in February.
Having said that, it seems a real long shot atm in terms of getting anything decent. The 12z is quite nice pattern-wise, but it hasn't really been supported by the Euros, especially regarding the mid-Atlantic block. The Atlantic looks much stronger on the Euros, and the GFS' evolution (i.e. block retrogressing NE) would not be possible without a weaker Atlantic. Still the odd-one-out, rather than the trendsetter, for me atm.
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Hello everyone
Today I drove down from south of Bonn, Germany (home) to beyond Koblenz - the Rhine Gorge. The scenery is pretty stunning around there, and most famous of all is the Lorelei rock - where a beautiful maiden is supposed to lure sailors to their deaths on the rocks with her singing!
No sings of the maiden today, but the weather was as good as it always has been here (32c) and the villages along the way are well worth a visit! The main industry is wine making, so it seemed only right to bring back a nice Riesling from the vintner's little shop in Boppard ;-)
Added to all of that is a string of mythical-looking castles along the way.
Here is a selection:
Vines growing along the slopes which lead to such a castle (the Rhine is below):
The Lorelei rock behind me!
Bacharach, a village further down the gorge. The red house is dated 1368!
Notice the vineyards at the back of the houses:
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I'm just gutted I didn't call it "gorgeous." *Groan*
Either way, you oughta see it for yourself. Hell, even I do, I've only driven through it!
I do, occasionally, gorge on Cheddar.
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Looks a bit flat Yetski...
Decent pics - I'm looking to do a cheese related adventure to Cheddar and the Cheddar Gorge this summer (for the pics rather than cheese!) because it's so beautiful there! Oh, and some of those pics just reminded me of the views off the A37 just north of Dorchester...I miss that part of the world...
B)
I thought a comment about Cheddar was on its way!
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My brother and I went out to Wensleydale today, partly for the cheese, which is already nearly all gone, and partly for the amazing walking and scenery! The walk up Great Shunner Fell, 716m and the 3rd highest in Yorkshire, is spectacular, with forest tracks, open moorland with Black Grouse, and large, grassy fields and meadows. Here is a selection of some of the pictures - the weather was superb, with a strong sun and plenty of heat while walking even at the very top, and despite the haze, views extended from the North York Moors, over to the Three Peaks, round to the Lake District, the Howgills and Cross Fell.
The drive over is made much more interesting when the road from Oughtershaw, Wharfedale to Hawes, Wensleydale is taken - it winds all the way up to 620m near to Whernside. The beginning of the walk, from Hardraw nr. Hawes:
Walking towards Cotterdale, an ancient and very isolated hamlet:
The beginning of a forest track that winds up the fellside and provides some welcome shade B)
Opening out onto moorland, and he begins to moan!
Ingleborough, 723m, and Whernside, 737m:
The summit:
Descending:
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Amazing! I especially like the fact that it's a forecast that is much more meteorology based, and nowhere near as patronising as the BBC ones!
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Some great storm activity in the past couple of days. Friday saw one of the best thunderstorms here in a LONG time - and yesterday I took some pics of some storms in the area.
Storm clouds to the N of Harrogate:
I then quickly got myself over to Little Arnscliffe in the country, where more storms were brewing:
Sorry if the pics aren't great quality; there were taken on my mobile.
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Well the St. George's Mushrooms are well and truly out now. Last week I found 2kg and today in the Dales, and completely by surprise, an immense amount!!! I have far too many, so if anyone lives nearby and wants a few then let me know :o
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it says there, Harrogate had a temp of 1-2c at 2pm with 5 inches of snow! that'd be very decent in January here, never mind May!
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Certainly not banking on it at all (this is the UK after all!) but what information do you base your findings on?
I know it's promising, isn't it!
I have 4 and a half months' summer holiday this year so I am definitely hoping for a good summer! Lots of bbqs, garden parties, cold wheat beer and those nice, warm nights where you can be comfortable in a T shirt the whole time...
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No ha llegado la primavera aun?
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Firefly - snow on my trip to Helvellyn on Saturday:
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Fantastic! I've been looking forward to it! It doesn't seem like it's got off to a good start though... spring has been pretty mild.
I'll be off to the Lakes a lot this May/June on hill walks so I'll happily add the English patches in if there still are any by then? I was on Helvellyn the other day and there were a fair few decent-sized patches about.
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Love the last two in particular :lol:
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Great pics Shuggee; I always love it up there :lol:
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Thanks Yeit really enjoyed viewing them and a good write up, I know you will enjoy looking back on them in time.
Some stunning photos :lol: :lol:
Thanks Ghost! And to everyone else who has commented on here, much appreciated as always
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You have not been to Dorset, nor Ben Nevis! Surely you can't make that statement?
Just winding you up
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Trust me, there are parts at the summit of Ben Nevis that look like you're going to fall off the face of the Earth!
Parts of Dorset have that effect on me as well
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Very nice.
Striding Edge is a doddle in fine weather. The width is mostly similar to a large living room. For even more exposure and even greater sheer drops try Crib Goch on Snowdon.
Or Sharp Edge on Blencathra!!!
I believe Ben Nevis also has a nasty ridge, although I've never been.
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Yes I can imagine how scary it could be, especially in wind. However on Saturday the weather was perfect and even at 950m there wasn't a breath of wind - something very rare! The problem arises not really from the climbing/scrambling, which isn't that tricky, but rather the knowledge of what one tiny error means!
Model Output Discussion
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Notice the sudden deepening of such a feature S of GL on the 18z:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png
That may throw a spanner in the works...