len

We're on the Oxon/Northants border (about 10 milesEast of Edghill and 650' asl). I've just been spinning round fields in a Jeep taking Hay to livestock. 12 to 15 inches generally I'd say. (Top of wellies job) We had about 8" today. It's been an amazing week, clearing snow virtually every day. (Partial thaws each day) Len

Looks to me as if the precipitation band is narrowing and stalling as the fronts merge in current location. So the band is creeping North (Southern edge) and South (Northern edge). Heavy snow here for past hour, on top of an extra 3 to 4 inches over night. (Oxon/Northants border East of Banbury) 650feet asl. Must be a good 12inches overall even with all the thawing and slumping of previous snows. Len

There now seems to be good agreement on a trend towards the squashing down of the current block towards a more zonal setup. And I must confess to my tentative hopes, that this Winter might just possibly buck the trend, are diminishing. It's taken an agonising fortnight for minus-five uppers to arrive, and the 528dam isn't even expected to cover England until sometime Monday/Tuesday. So it has only just begun to be a theoretical-snow-possible situation. The faux cold is not only disappointing, it was very dreary due to inversion cloud. And it appears that now some Arctic air has finally arrived to the continent it won't be advected our way for very long. So, with the Stratosphere cooling (as per usual now), and a La Nina starting-up, I feel the window of opportunity for a real Winter is closing. This interesting spell has failed to live up to the promise of some of the model output. The High never quite got North enough and Arctic air was not engaged soon enough. The High has determinedly kept a Euro link and prevented real undercutting. The Southern Jet has never really got going or been convincing. I fear the curse of the even larger teapot remains Len

I thought that with model outputs causing some despondancy (to me included) I would post Joe B's lastest offerings. He seems incredibly bullish about cold deepening. Where does he get this? Does he have access to info we don't? We seem to be in a very unusual situation where the model output is being substantially disregarded by some forecasters, and experts like GP. I hope they're right. Mods, if this is not acceptable here please move it as you see fit, but it's his take on the output so I'm offering it here............ "MONDAY, DEC. 29, 7 A.M. EST OKAY, LET'S HAVE SOME FUN WITH THE WEATHER. The reason I love to use London as a bellweather of northwestern Europe is that in a warm amo, it's tough to be cold there. This is not a backyard forecasting site, just a heads-up on some things I see coming and other topics, but to have a cold January in London is impressive given the cycle we are in. So here we go. December as of now is .8 below normal in London, the coldest areas in Europe have been over Spain. The east has been warm. Widepsread, and in some cases, extreme cold will develop by Jan. 5 and probably last through the 20th across most of Europe and so I am going to say January in London will be more than 2 degrees below normal and in fact could be as much as 3-4 F below, which would make it the coldest since the '80s. Thanks for reading. Ciao for now. **** SUNDAY, DEC. 28, 8 A.M. YOU WANT IT... YOU'RE GOING TO GET IT. The cold that has been a mainstay of the southern European pattern the past couple of weeks is not the cold I am talking about that IS COMING. The major block over Scandinavia will back west the next couple of weeks, and true arctic air masses will spread south into central Europe then back west with time. The two- to three-week period that comes in the wake of the warmth that is occurring now because of the block over the north will more than justify the idea that one heck of cold period is coming up in January. In the end, my mistake will be that apparently I did not make clear the idea that this was a forecast from a couple of weeks out to let you know, as apparently it was, in many minds, supposed to start instantly from the date of post over a week ago. But I will watch the continent's weather and see how it turns out. In the end, we got off to the fast start centered on November and early December, and we will find that that when we total things up, give or take a week, the first half of winter had the wildest weather not the second half, which should grow tranquil with the hope of an early spring for most of the continent. However, what is coming in front of us for the continent as a whole, should be the nastiest in recent memory. " Len

The current situation, with our progged mid-latitude High over UK, reminds me of something I’ve noticed as a crucial part of the “even larger teapot”. This High looks doomed to sit under (South of) the PFJ. Despite favourable Teleconnections/Solar cycle/Synoptics there is, as yet, no sign that Atlantic Lows will dive under it. Although I have read many optimistic posts calling for energy to dive SE and Always seeing Heights in Svalbard it hasn’t happened yet. And I cannot recall the jet undercutting in any recent winter. Normally the best we get is a bifurcated jet somewhere in the Atlantic quadrant of the globe,….but always, always, always the energy is over the top, not underneath. But, in my living memory and experience it was relatively frequent for large Atlantic winter storms to enter France/The Channel/The Med in winter. NEVER now! I would love some insights or comments from experts such as JH/GP/SM on such as (1)Why the PFJ can no longer undercut? Is it because we only have warm Highs of Sub-Tropical origin? (2)Why can the PFJ be to our South all Summer as it was (frustratingly) all the summer of 2008? (3) Each winter I watch the JetStream maps http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.jet.html I am always amazed at the way the Northern arm, in the Atlantic quadrant, will tie knots in itself rather than take a visually short and easy route to join the Southerly arm of the Jet. Why? (4)Leading on from this. The Jet is often unitary around the rest of the globe. Therefore it has a lower-latitude, mean-position. In the Atlantic Winter this bifurcation creates two Jets. The stronger Northern one is always way above us….ergo mild Winters. Why is the bifurcation an Atlantic phenomenon? Thanks Guys Len

Like many others I had hoped the favourable teleconnections and the extremly low solar activity might make this winter different. Steve's excellent post has got me back to thinking about the stratosphere and Ozone depletion again........ From Wikipaedia............ "Observations on ozone layer depletion The most pronounced decrease in ozone has been in the lower stratosphere. ...........Reductions of up to 70% in the ozone column observed in the austral (southern hemispheric) spring over Antarctica and first reported in 1985 (Farman et al 1985) are continuing.[8] Through the 1990s, total column ozone in September and October have continued to be 40-50% lower than pre-ozone-hole values. In the Arctic the amount lost is more variable year-to-year than in the Antarctic. The greatest declines, up to 30%, are in the winter and spring, when the stratosphere is colder..............] Ozone depletion also explains much of the observed reduction in stratospheric and upper tropospheric temperatures.[10][11] The source of the warmth of the stratosphere is the absorption of UV radiation by ozone, hence reduced ozone leads to cooling. Some stratospheric cooling is also predicted from increases in greenhouse gases such as CO2; however the ozone-induced cooling appears to be dominant http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion" emphases are mine Len

But how much time? That is the question Stelmer. The climate record doesn't show cycles, so much as chaotic random changes, some slow some rapid. These warm winters will probably end one year. It could be next month, but it could also be a 100 or a 1000 years. "After cold will come warm; after warm will come cold" is a truism that gives us little to no information. Len

I think what Steve illustrated so well was that even as all the other teleconnections altered the result was the same (mild)....except for the persistently cool stratosphere since the nineties. The Stratosphere seems to be the sole overweaning factor. And if indeed this is cooler Stratosphere (which causes a more intense PV and a +AO) is caused by Ozone-depletion (See the paper I cited and others) then it might very well be unchangeable until Ozone recovers. http://www.europhysicsnews.org/index.php?o...2/epn04302.html Len PS The irony is (as these threads tend to get distracted by AGW debates) that CO2 was not the human agent of Europe's modern winters but CFCs

I got it to download by going to this page...and hitting "pdf" under where it says Table of contents http://www.europhysicsnews.org/index.php?o...2/epn04302.html Len

"The Stratosphere as a puppeteer of European Winter" a pdf download here...... http://www.europhysicsnews.org/index.php?o...03/epn04302.pdf I meant to ask.........I'd really appreciate some expert evaluation of this

A brilliant post Steve. The underlying reason for the persistently cooler Stratosphere may well be here:- "The Stratosphere as a puppeteer of European Winter" a pdf download here...... http://www.europhysicsnews.org/index.php?o...03/epn04302.pdf Apparently Ozone depletion, exaggerated over the poles, is the likely cause. This won't come right anytime soon. ------------------------------- Your pictures just tell me what I know I've experienced since I was a boy in the 50's. (And I followed the weather since I was about 10) There were always mild winters; but there were as many cold ones, when snow stayed for at least a week, even in South Wilts where I was. I remember as well nearly every Saturday hearing the football match cancellations 'oop North due to snow. I can't find them right now but I've seen graphs that show a step change in 1987. To all intents and purposes the cold winters stopped. The mild ones just kept on and became virtually uninterrupted mild, which I never remembered before. And just recently I watched, with a feeling of awful inevitability when the first Atlantic-reassertion charts appeared. The atmosphere seems to be writhing its way back to its current winter default scenario. Hopes dashed. Thanks Steve

I know that for us Southerners the Northerly brings nothing if it doesn't contain perturbations/Polar Lows etc. The classic Easterly was way better. But it just doesn't seem to be able to happen any more. By "classic Easterly" I am talking about a High that is on the North of the jet bringing truc Arctic Continental air from a frigid Russia. When we get an Easterly now it is because the jet is just so far North a warm Euro High sneaks in underneath. It wafts raw, coolish air from a Russia that is relatively mild. (Their Winters have warmed far more than ours). This is the situation right now as well. There is no cold out East. There is no choice now. Only a Northerly will have any chance of putting us on the Northern side of the wretched Jet. Len

I seem to remember winter forecasts months ago..... stating that the recent La Nina going neutral, favoured a cold early Winter followed by a milder late Winter. Perhaps this is correct and what the Met is now saying. Len

No-one has remarked on the massive lack of usual snow cover in W. Russia (So Northerlies are better than Easterlies?) http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart...18&ui_set=2 (ANOMALIES) http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif (COVER) And the Ice growth has gone into reverse…… http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg Especially the Barents http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.6.html Len

Interesting Tongue of Ice in the Atlantic SE of Newfoundland. As far South as The Bay of Biscay! http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif Len

A very telling post Graywolf "In 1989, 80 percent of the ice in the Arctic was at least 10 years old, he said. Today, only about 3 percent of the ice is that old." is the most devastating statistic. I think far too many people are misled by area anomalies, especially where ice is concerned. And people talk about non-existent seasonal recoveries. e.g. Once the Barents shows zero ice in Summer it appears to reach its "norm,". But it can't show less than zero (its summer norm). The real picture is the SST has continued to soar. The same is true of those 100% winter icebound areas. They appear to reach their "norm" (100%) in winter because they can't ever be more than 100%, but the volume/thickness/mass of ice is drastically reduced. Perhaps these area charts deceive as much as inform, especially to those taking a cursory look to see what they want to find. Len Len

Concerning potent cold; on the contrary, one of the most noticeable winter changes is that, even when the "the right" synoptics occur, they do not deliver cold as heretofor. e.g Ice-days under cold advection (not inversions) have virtually ceased to be. They were widespread and usual with cold synoptics in the decades before the nineties. I think the answer to your second point Damian, is that the winters have become as they are due to the overwhelming power of the Polar vortex (coupled with the Azores High) in the North Atlantic winter months. It is more consistently powerful these days. So it smashes down alternative random synoptic occurances which are still free to occur in the months when it relaxes. The power of this Atlantic couplet virtually eliminates winter variability. Len

Do you think this the last snow of winter for most of us? Depends whether you mean falling snow or lying snow? I'm old enough to know how winters have deteriorated. Winter-snow is finished, until a radical shift in habitual hemisheric synoptics occurs. This means virtually all our snow now, is spring-snow. This is what we are left with. Spring is actually now our "snow"-season!! It's always been there (those March and April snowfalls that you woke up to, that we gone by lunchtime in the dazzling sun) but now that's all the snow there is. So, most of us will see snow (wet, slushy and melting). But "winter-snow", that stays for days at least, that is powdery or sqeaks as you walk, we have maybe a 3 week window, and it don't look likely! Len