len

Does anyone else find the new site much slower and gummier than the old one? Was this change for change's sake? Len

A few years ago I used to post questions as to why the jet was always bifucated over the N. atlantic. (so that we never got to be North of it). I never did get an answer. Now we have our third Summer of a unitary and Southerly-running Jet. Suddenly we seem to be able to reside North of the complete jet (in Summer at least!) And the models show this miserable scenario continuing. Does anyone know why? Why has the formerly quasi-permanent Atlantic-bifurcation disappeared? Why is the Jet so far South? Len

I note the comments about Win98SE being beyond support. But this means support from Microsoft who have the agenda of forcing me to buy a new OS. So obviously they have an interest in pulling the rug ASAP. Whereas I have found all the support I have needed on Internet Forums. I was sold Win98SE with a new system some 8.5 years ago; because the vendors (Dell) said the "new" (ME) system was crap! Win98SE hasn't been superceded because MS fixed all its faults in a new OS. No, MS has simply replaced one perforated, buggy system with another, then another. And it is the new gimmicks, bells and whistles that are used to actually force our upgradings. Software writers seem addicted to exploiting these new "features" so people are forced to "upgrade" to prevent exclusion from using 3rd party programs that inevitably demand newer systems. eg Adaware SE now requires XP. I just wonder why everyone wants to actively help Microsoft acheive this aggresive obsolescence? Len

I note that your Michael Fish forecast requires I go out and buy XP or Vista. I hope this "upgrade" doesn't similarly demand a new operating system. Do the new "bells & whistles" features do anything we really need? If so, fine. If they require a new operating system then I just don't feel like supporting MS's aggressive obsolesence policy. I'm quite happy still with my Win98SE. It has all the features I need. len

Could someone tell me what "nbsp" stands for? And also "MMW", which is being used elsewhere relating to Strat. issues? Looks like a double whammy from this warming. Not helping Winter; Ruining Spring! Len

I can't get on with the image above. This site is much clearer http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif

I'm posting this here in response to the discussion regarding this paper http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-046...69-22-6-597.pdf .....in the Model Output Thread. I personally think that Winter SW warming events are "linked" with cold winters and that recent "bad" winters were ruined by the strong omnipresent PV. However this paper begins by talking about a mid-Jan 63 warming as contibuting to that phenomenal winter that I remember so well. However the Autumn of 62 had been mostly very cold and the extreme cold synoptics were in place by Xmas day. By mid-Jan we were 3 weeks into an uninterrupted regime of extreme cold. If the Warming takes 2 weeks to alter the synoptics, then we had already had 5 uniterupted weeks of record-breaking cold, by the time the "cause" arrived! Perhaps that winter was caused by other factors. Or perhaps the SSW is not the direct cause? Could it be a parrallel effect caused by a deeper, unknown, cause that promotes cold NH winters? Could it be a "marker" rather than a simple cause? Or a self reinforcing "product-&-further-cause" of cold. Notwithstanding my queries about it "causing" the 62/63 winter I still think it's the best explanation we have for "good" and "bad" winters. Please keep up the info. GP et al. Len

Temps are higher today than in yesterday's rain. And with the sun I think we could lose more depth of snow today than yesterday! Never mind XC weather forecasts a bone-numbing minus-one tonight!!! Len

Ditto to all that TEITS from here on the Oxon/Northants border. And about classic cold....I basically said the same as you this morning in the models thread (Snow, but always marginal, and no intense cold) and got very little sympathy. Len

Many stations in South Midlands (MK, Fairford, Oxford, cherwell) all reporting a reversion to rain (at 0 degrees & 0 DP). What's going on?

Radar looks to me like the ppn is already pivoting and receding Southeastwards on its western edge. ATM it looks like to me like the ppn is only punching Northwards on the Eastern side of England with any conviction. We might already be at the peak for the Midlands??? Certainly an anticlimax (if snow ever is) so far, compared to the hype/warnings/forecasts. Could they have taken down those warning because they extended into tomorrow and that's not going to happen??? Len

Snow here. Moderate, small flakes. 650ft asl

Lyneham reporting rain & snow http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ (at 1degree and DP 1degree) Is it another error?

Coventry Airport now reporting "Light rain Snow" http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ Is this an error? (Like the Brize Noreton reports??) Len

Another hour past and Brize Norton is still(uniquely) reporting Snow & Rain. Anyone got any explanation? Len

Thanks for that Nick & ST Len

I'm also beginning to be sceptical of the "Rain and Snow" report at Brize Norton. Nowhere else around it, or in the whole country is reporting any snow as far as I can see??? Len

I am quoting my own post here to see if anyone that says the LP has shifted South is going to respond. Can someone who said this demonstrate it please? Thanks Len

I just queried this on the Midlands Snow Watch thread TEITS. Trouble is I'm not master of uplaoding the various files. Suffice to say the 6:00am analysis here http://www.metbrief.com/EGRR.html shows the LP a little South and West of the Midday position (zero hours run) See pic (Won't upload! see Midlands snow watch post). But that is in accord with the forecasted trajectory and the six hour difference surely? I would love to believe it has shifted South. Can you demonstrate this? Len

Are you sure it has edged South??? Compare the latest 6am (Colour pic) with their 00hours midday chart (Attachment)The trajectory would seem right? Have you allowed for the 6 hours difference? Sorry! It's taken ages to upload these files Len Doc9.doc

Can you verify this? I get "rain snow" for Brize Norton but "Overcast" for Little Rissington here..........http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ Len

This "back-end-stuff" is usually feeble. With the last LP we saw this; as the precipitation began to retreat SouthEastwards it fizzled .

Where please? Could you add a location to your profile? Len

Sunset yesterday. Oxon/Norhants border 650ft asl (snowed-in, except for 4-wheel drives) Circa 12 inches plus.

If you took some of the air around you, that you are measuring, and chilled it; eventually it would become saturated and start to form fog (cloud). Dry air would need more chilling to become saturated (a lower dew point). Saturated air is already at its dewpoint. The lower the dewpoint the dryer the air. Len