len

Hi RESOLVED! I disabled Adblock (on the RainToday page). Hey Presto! Thanks

Hello, About 2 weeks ago my Raintoday link ceased to show the echoes. I just have a blank map! If I do a fresh search for RainToday it still comes up with a blank map??? On my wifes laptop it still works! We Both use Firefox. I see someone else on the web had this problem....but no solution. Any Help please?

Hello, Sorry if I'm posting this request in the wrong thread? Posters often put up the monthly NH composites for MJO phases here. My link for these now goes to "American Weather" As anyone got a new link for these monthly phase composites please? Thanks

Can someone tell me why, if snow is forecast even for southern coastal areas (with the next band of precipitation from the SW) why it has been raining for ages here in Lymington? I mean, if this generating band is rain, how will the next onslaught from the SW be snow?

well I'm in Lymington & it's raining!

Are we supposed to know what "the SWC thread" is......or is this just for a limited cogniscenti?

British Gas & some others will insulate (Cavity & roof) for free....sometimes depending on circumstances. My Landlord agreed and this was well done. Next best thing was a DEHUMIDIFIER. It's 200watts to run.... but chucks the latent heat back into the room in the dried air! So it costs virtually nothing to run. HOWEVER; you can then ventilate much less as there is little need to dispose of all the water vapour from cooking washing breathing etc. This seemed to make big savings and you can be comfortable in lower temperatures once the air is dry. Got rid of mould problems too. I got mine from dry-it-out.com and they seemed very good. Len

? What "other" thread please John? Or a link perhaps please? Thanks

Currently positive snow-cover anomalies are mid/low-latitude. (Sourherly Jet?) Large Asiatic anomaly. http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2011&ui_day=320&ui_set=2 http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif

Could someone post a link to "The Presentation" referred to please?

I think it's a great idea. I personally stopped visiting the TWO site because of the effort of skimming through pages of banter, one-liners, chit-chat and squabble to find some grains of informative nourishment. And I have to admit I skim a lot of posts in the NW Model thread, particularly about peoples' hunches, feelings, gut-feelings, if-onlys, and cheerleading posts for various models or synoptics. But might this "expert" thread duplicate, or conflict with, the Technical Thread (which is a Godsend in itself)?

Re: Sunspots, Stratosphere & Southerly Jet I saw this article about a possible link between these, perhaps explaining the sudden resurrection of a Southerly Jet of recent years. http://en.mercopress.com/2010/04/15/lower-sunspot-activity-anticipates-chillier-winters-for-northern-europe Quote (Referring to Sunspots & UV solar output) “Lockwood says that the pattern is related to the effect of ultraviolet light on Earth's stratosphere, located about 20–50 kilometers above the surface. Ultraviolet light from the Sun is absorbed by ozone in the stratosphere, protecting the planet's surface but heating the stratosphere in the process. The effect is largest in the tropics, where sunlight is strongest, and the temperature gradients set up a global pattern of upper-atmosphere winds, including the Northern and Southern Hemisphere jet streams. “Relatively simple models have demonstrated that heating the equatorial stratosphere can push the jet streams apart just a little bit,†says Lockwood. Similarly, cooling the stratosphere — as occurs during periods of low solar activity — allows the jet streams to shift towards the Equator. This, he says, seems to have a profound effect on European weather by causing the northern jet stream to block warm maritime air from reaching the continent from the Atlantic Ocean. This, in turn, opens the door to cold, northeasterly winds from Russia and the Arctic.†I would appreciate any comment from GP, BFTP & Chionomaniac...... Eg GP, Are we seeing Stratospheric cooling over the Tropics. I seem to remember you saying this? Len

In my years of watching weather on the Web I have not seen the current North Atlantic/Gulf-of-Mexico SSTA pattern, particularly in mid-winter. I wonder if the experts among us would care to venture what effects this pattern may have down the line? Are these unusual patterns simply driven by the current synoptics or are they the drivers? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=images_loop&imagename=........00_054_G6_season@north@america_I_SEASON_tm@lg@sd_000.png&nbimages=1&clf=1 http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

GP was extremly confident a couple of days ago that a breakdown could not come from the South. I respect his work immensly and wonder what he makes of today's runs that show a mild breakdown coming from this quarter?

Better image here.... http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif Has UK right way up

I think this image is better for North Hemisphere snow cover http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif The daily anomalies are here http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2010&ui_day=300&ui_set=2 The Ice seems to be falling behind http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

See snow cover anomalies here (till yesterday) http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2010&ui_day=284&ui_set=2 Asia, especially Chinese Himalayas, seems up. Canada & North-Europeaen Russia down

This thread seems to be losing its special in-depth/technical nature. A lot of recent posts belong in the model thread I believe.

I was looking for the Convective OUTLOOK thread. Does anyone know where I could find it?

Arctic Ice Extent picture today (2-4-10) is interesting http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm Positive Arctic Ice extent anomalies have grown recently to the highest for some years

I didn't mean to deflect the debate or subject in any way. But my primary field of obsessive study is health issues; with weather a runner-up. I've just been shocked at how some ideas get accepted by the Politico-Medical establishment with very little criticism, whilst others are rejected despite a great weight of scientific backing. The "Lipid-Hypothesis" of Ancil Keyes (That sat-fats cause Heart-Disease) was an example of the former. Although it later proved to be a terrible piece of research (He omitted data from many countries because they didn't fit his graph) Time magazine ran with it and the media followed. But it has been impossible to prove. Studies that appeared to prove it, lumped Trans-fats in with Sat-fats (Although the Trans were mostly Veg-oil derived!). It was the Trans-fats that were the problem. I suggested typing "Do saturated fats cause heart disease" into Google. This question is phrased to favour a "Yes". But it will bring up surprises. Hard Science to. "Moderation" is like Motherhood & Apple-Pie. It is fine, but it can be a simple substitute for playing safe when knowledge is lacking. Burning is obviously bad....but what is "moderate" sun -exposure. What are we evolved to cope with, need or benefit from??? How about "Commonsense" to? "Live as near to the natural environment that you are evolved for" would seem to be the answer. That means being outdoors a lot more than a "moderate" amount! Until some Dermatologists got a bee in their bonnet in the 60s every doctor "knew" sunlight was healthy, and they advised people to seek it out. It treated TB, Psoriasis, Acne, Eczema and general well-being & Good Health. There is a lot of sloppy, skewed, vested-interest-funded science around, but don't trust "officialdom" or Government to run with the best. They select according to convenience, Policy-leanings and Lobbying. And they seem to have an unerring knack for running with some bad ideas. Consider for instance “The Mediterranean diet”. It is one of those ideas the media, and conventional medical establishment, grabbed at with little scrutiny. (Contrast Government refusals to consider the staggering mountain of science against their Fluoridation Policy ) (1)The Japanese are the longest-living developed people. They did not use olive oil. And the longest-living Japanese are the Okinawans….they cook with lard! (2)The French have the greatest longevity of “Western” peoples. But…. (a)Only a small fraction of France is “Mediterranean”. If “Mediterranean” was the ideal diet, then the Italians, Greeks, Spanish and many North African peoples would live longer. (:winky:The French region with greatest longevity is NOT the Mediterranean area! It is the South-West. (Gascogne/Perigord, and especially Le Gers). Their traditional fats are Goose and Duck fat, because the area has a peculiarly “avian” agriculture and is the home of fois gras. Generous amounts of bacon fat are also eaten. And some say their Madiran-grape wine is the reason. In general, Mediteranean peoples live longer than Northern-Europeans. But too often people and governments jump on plausible explanatory-foods, which do not stand up to rigorous analysis. Why say it is……Red Wine? or Garlic? or Olive oil? Why not say…….Parsley? Haricots verts? or fois gras for that matter? which are just as characteristic of the French diet. Or the habit of eating UNPASTEURISED cheese (High in CLA and Cystine ) with every meal? Cystine is a vital precursor for Glutathione which is associated with longevity and CLA is associated with lean body mass. Or the French habit of eating slowly that keeps Leptin resistance and insulin resistance low? Or is it that European-Mediterranean peoples profit from the extra sunlight and consequent vitamin D (in a way Muslim North Africans do not)? Or French longevity could be a combination of their diet, their WAYof eating, and their broader focus on the QUALITY of life which has meant generous holidays, a slow pace, and a strong societal ethic which has minimalised exclusion and marginalisation which are always associated with bad health and shortened lifespan. Who knows? It is unknown. And Governments should not meddle with their outdated half-baked advice. They seem to have an infallible touch for getting things wrong. I speak as a Brit who has lived in France and has many French family connections through marriage. So, when it comes to "science news" and health, I'd say don't trust any advice that advocates a break from the "commonsense" of doing what we were evolved to do. It is a monument to our gullibility (and to the power of the media) that they persuaded us that sunshine was bad for us. They could as well persuade us that fresh air is lethal.

There is tons of research piling out ATM about widespread Vitamin D deficiency. Most "Westerners" have begun to live like Troglodites in the last century or so, working indoors and covering up when outside. Science is now discovering the obvious. The Colds-&-Flu-Season is the dark season (worldwide)when people become Vit D deficient. I started taking Vitamin D (2000IU/day) five winters ago and have shrugged off every cold brought near to me since then. The disastrous errors started in Australia of slapping on Bezine-derived sunscreens, combined with the switch (in "Western" cultures) to immuno-suppressing Vegetable oils (away from the stable sturated fats we were evolved to eat) may well be the cause of the continuing rise in Melanoma. The cancer-mondiale map of Melanoma frequency is a map of something about "Western Culture" causing Melanoma not sunlight. See....... http://www.second-opinions.co.uk/skin-cancer.html http://www.second-opinions.co.uk/sunlight.html http://www.second-opinions.co.uk/full_spectrum_sunlight.html Slow to open, but worth the wait Enjoy the sun as I see all the animals doing around the farm. Don't burn; but don't wear chemicals on your skin either. And don't wear sunglasses, to get the benefits of UV through the eye into the Pineal Gland. (And NO saturated fats DON'T cause Heart Disease, check it out! Just ask the Q in Google)

Looking at other possible teleconnections.............. I don’t know what effect reduced Albedo will have now, but snow cover looks pretty phenomenal http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif This is confirmed by the snow cover anomalies. A very, very rare sight, that I’ve not seen before since watching these anomaly charts. They have always been red-dominated http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2010&ui_day=43&ui_set=2 Will this delay spring? Will it help to put cold in the right location for UK? Or is the Stratosphere the sole Puppeteer, with the surface playing little part? On the other hand, the sun has really decided to finally wake up with a real burst. Solar flux nearly went off the scale http://www.solen.info/solar/ Perhaps this will mean the Jet Stream will track further North in the medium to long term? Or can it even boot up the Atlantic quickly? Any experts care to comment?

It has seemed like an eternity as we watched Snowmaggedon Easterlies gradually evaporate to a short blast into France. Then we consoled ourselves with a real Northerly Arctic blast in the offing; this will now try to warm the Central Atlantic. We now face a messy & marginal Limbo. But ECM still says real cold is just "yet another week away". It's always a week away. I, for one, don't believe it.

Go through or animate this sequence http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#eg=temp&type=temp