North-Easterly Blast

I have always thought that being near to or just after solar minimum the chance of colder winters was better. I always thought that being near or just after solar maximum the chance of a cold winter was slim. I always thought that the lower that solar activity was, the better the chance was of the development of northern high latitude blocking. It makes one question as to the fact that close to solar minimum very recently, winters 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2021-22 have been so mild and produced so little in the way of cold outbreaks for the UK, and it does make one begin to wonder if it is ever again realistically possible for a prolonged spell of cold weather to develop again in the UK. It raises serious questions about whether a winter like 2017-18 or 2020-21 may be regarded as cold or possibly even severe in the modern post 2013 era, and makes one wonder if 2017-18 and 2020-21 are the modern versions of 2009-10, December 2010 and winter 2012-13, and one has to think that winters like 2009-10, spells like December 2010 or winter 2012-13 are now possibly extinct and may well never be seen again.

Low level snow on the forecast for more southern parts for this Thursday 24th does not look right to me when further north it is over high ground such as the Pennines and the Lake District, and over the higher parts of Wales.

I think that areas in the north this coming Thursday have a chance of snow settling at low levels, and areas as far south as the Midlands have a chance at seeing snow falling, but south of the border or at least the Lake District / north Pennines I think that you would have to be at elevation to see snow covering the ground. High ground in the south Pennines have a good chance of seeing snow settle on the ground this coming Thursday I think.

I never meant to say that January 1984 was a notably cold month like the same month in 1985 and 1987. What I meant to say was that for its synoptics on the weather charts, such as a positive NAO pattern and a zonal flow, January 1984 was cold, and it did show that a +NAO pattern did bring significant snowfalls during the month even as far south as the Midlands at times, and it did become cold over most of the country for a time in the second half, and it showed that this was possible without high latitude blocking. The overall CET for January 1984 was 3.8*C (close to average for that time but quite cold by recent standards); logic suggests that for its synoptics and a positive NAO pattern, its CET should have been milder than that but it wasn't.

Things will chop and change a bit and gradually become clearer in the next couple of days, but the chance is certainly there for snowfall for some parts of the country on Thursday, although at this stage I think that you will need to be up at elevation to get anything settling - I think that the higher areas of the country down to the south Pennines could get a good snowfall on Thursday this week.

November 1996 was generally a northerly month, especially in the second half, and not especially a +NAO zonal polar maritime pattern. You are correct that early March 1995 was another good example of a +NAO polar maritime cold zonal pattern. What I meant is that January 1984 brought a good cold spell in the second half without any significant high latitude blocking. For most of the month the zonal flow brought frequent snowfalls to the northern half of Britain, and in the spell of colder weather in the second half an Atlantic flow brought widespread snowfalls to large parts of the country, and that was still with a polar vortex over NE Canada and Greenland. January 1984 was definitely up there amongst the all time classic spells for weather enthusiasts as it showed how it was still possible for it to be cold in the UK even when there was no significant high latitude blocking, and January 1984 still showed how it was possible for a zonal flow to bring widespread snowfall.

Winter was already over at the start of December after the little cold snap we had at the end of November, and it was already dead in the water two months before it even started due to the very warm September, and recent times if not decades largely show that colder winter weather is rare after a warm September, and what a winter killer pattern a warm September is for the winter to follow. Although most of the time a polar vortex over Greenland and NE Canada is bad news for colder winter weather in the UK, if the pattern STILL orientates FAVOURABLY it isn't. Just look at January 1984, now for much of the time that month there was a strong polar vortex over Greenland and NE Canada and little in the way of high latitude blocking, and a westerly Atlantic flow delivered widespread snow for the UK, and it did get cold for a time even though the flow was mostly from the Atlantic - January 1984 is the best setup I can think of for a positive NAO and a PV over Greenland and NE Canada, and the zonal flow being of a polar maritime origin and the flow more NW-SE. In more recent times the closest and best example that I can think of for a +NAO / cold zonal polar maritime pattern for the UK was at times in the winter of 2014-15, briefly just after Christmas and at times in the middle to latter part of January. I also think that mid January 2018 saw some +NAO cold zonal polar maritime W'lies around mid-month. The worst aspect of winter in the UK is why does a zonal flow not deliver like in the above examples? The tropical maritime mild zonality is just about the worst part of the UK's winter weather and the fact that most of the time, it fails to orientate in a polar maritime flow. Another big disappointment of this winter was the failure of January's high pressure spell to deliver widespread fog and cold days under an inversion with frost on the ground through the day; this winter's anticyclonic spell clearly did not live up to the potential of the weather that it could have delivered on the ground in the UK.

Summer 2000 did have a fairly warm June, and the July was mostly cool but actually fairly average to dry, and August that year was a bit warmer and drier than average overall, so all in all I would say that summer 2000 was a very average summer, it certainly wasn't anywhere near as wet or even as cool overall as the summer of 2012.

November 2021 wasn't that especially mild though, it had a CET of 7.3, which is about average for recent standards but a little above older 1971-2000 and 1961-90 averages, and was a fair bit cooler than Nov 1999's 7.9. You are correct that Septembers 1999 and 2021 were very similar and January / February 2000 were very similar to the same months in 2022. Winter 1999-2000 was another warm September = mild winter theory year just like this one, and winter 2021-22 must indeed be one of the all time classic examples of the warm September = mild winter theory, possibly only second to September 2006 (warmest ever) and winter 2006-07 (very mild). In recent times September 2016 / winter 2016-17 was another classic example of the warm September = mild winter theory. In some ways September 2021 / winter 2021-22 have also been similar to September 2016 / winter 2016-17; as Jan 2017 saw a similar high pressure borefest to Jan 2022, and Feb 2017 was mostly mild and westerly like Feb 2022, albeit with an attempt at a Scandi high / easterly in its second week but it didn't quite come together. All these four of the top ten warmest Septembers on record for the CET over the 23 years since Sep 1999, certainly well and truly test the warm September = mild winter theory, and puts into perspective what a winter killer pattern in the UK a preceding warm September is.

A SSW does not guarantee cold conditions for the UK, it just significantly increases the chance of northern blocking, but everything else has to fall favourably for us in the UK, as the blocking has to set up favourably to bring cold airstreams into the UK, and an SSW still does not guarantee the pattern to set up favourably. Looking back, I do not think that there was an SSW that influenced the cold patterns in winter 2009-10; correct me if I am wrong? I also do not think that there was a SSW before the severe spell in December 2010? Although I think that most recently, there was a SSW in early 2021 but I do not think that there was prior to the colder weather we had in late December 2020 and early January 2021? So it appears that a SSW is not the be all and end all for colder winter weather in the UK.

I have got some idea as to what went wrong in some of our recent rubbish winters. 2013-14 was near solar maximum but not sure what went wrong for it to be as devoid of anything remotely cold as it was. 2015-16 had a strong El Nino. 2016-17 had a very warm September before it. 2018-19 I do not know what went wrong. 2019-20 had a strong positive IOD anomaly. 2021-22 had a very warm September before it. Further back 2007-08 had a strong La Nina. 2006-07 had a very warm September before it. As I say, it seems as in the UKs weather patterns that when only one of the following are in play; strong ocean anomaly either way (IOD, El Nino, La Nina), near solar maximum, a preceding September with a high CET, the winter is ruined from a cold perspective.

Winter 2021-22 has plainly been one of the all time classics of the warm September = mild winter theory. If I was to ever make a forecast, I will say that there will not this century, or ever again, be a cold winter in the UK following on from a high September CET, despite how good some other background signals may be. It appears if you have just got one thing wrong; a strong ocean anomaly either way (ENSO or IOD), or being close to or just after solar maximum, a high CET in the preceding September, or in most cases a westerly QBO, the odds are well and truly stacked against any decent cold patterns developing during the winter in the UK. The signals for a colder winter looked good IMO up until the end of last summer, with a number of people thinking that a colder winter in 2020-21 than in most recent years, and the first really cold April for 32 or 35 years, could be a teaser for something greater this winter, and all this combined with the position of the solar cycle looked more promising for this winter, but then all those promising signals evaporated when along came September 2021, which turned out to have the seventh warmest September CET on record, and going by the way that the UK's weather patterns have developed in previous years especially in recent times, it is clear that a high September CET does not bode well for cold conditions in the following winter, so basically winter 2021-22 is a winter that looked promising six months or more before it but was ruined by the warm September which most likely nailed the coffin for anything colder this winter.

Winter 2010-11 was one of if not the most extreme example ever recorded of a so called pear shaped winter - by this I mean a winter that brings an early cold spell that deteriorates into nothing for the rest of the winter. Looking back in the records the last time we saw something similar to Dec 2010 in terms of such a notable early freeze up was back in 1890 or even 1878. Though in the earlier example January 1879 was also very cold, but in Feb 1879 the cold did moderate somewhat but it was still quite cold by today's standards. After December 1890 the January of 1891 remained pretty cold, and although Feb 1891 was more uneventful and benign the cold did return in March 1891, so winter 1890-91 was not a winter where the early cold disappeared abruptly as in 2010-11. Whereas looking at CET records, 2010-11 really does stand out as the most extreme example on record of a notable early cold spell deteriorating into nothing. Another so called pear shaped winter in relatively recent times was 1996-97 - in that winter December was cold (though obviously nowhere near as cold as Dec 2010), and it did develop into an extended cold spell from Xmas through to the New Year which lasted until 10th January 1997; but once this cold spell broke that was it, the cold was never to return and the rest of that winter brought next to nothing, so in some ways winter 1996-97 was also in some ways a bit similar to 2010-11 albeit the cold to begin with was nowhere near as extreme. As you rightly say, winter 1981-82 was another so called pear shaped winter - after the cold weather of December and the first half of January broke down in mid January, it was never to return during the rest of that winter, although I do think that in Feb 1982, although no big freeze, it did get colder for a time in the second half of that month. Winters 2010-11, 1996-97 and 1981-82 really belong in their own category, that is of pear shaped winters.

Winter 2010-11 effectively ended at the end of December. In fact the two months of January & February of that winter overall were only 0.2*C colder for the CET than the same months of winter 2015-16, after the warmest December on record.

Although December 2010 was the second coldest on record, once the cold abated late in that month it was never to return, and once the exceptional December was over, the rest of that winter was actually not special, with January having a fair amount of UK High type weather and a number of frosts especially over its second half, but no proper cold synoptics, and the February in particular was very mild and SW'ly driven, with an attempt at a Scandy high and an easterly in the third week but it didn't quite come off.

Again we avoid a cold February. It is now 31 years since the last significantly cold February CET, in 1991 at 1.5*C. After so long it does make us all wonder is if we will ever see a really cold February again. Although in recent times we did get a fairly cold February in 2018 at 2.9 CET, and prior to that we saw 2.8*C in 2010, but we have not had what you could reasonably call a notably cold February since 1991. The 31 year run and counting, must be close to a record time interval without a really cold February (CET going under 2*C), and also for that matter, the February CET has not gone under 2.8*C for 26 years and counting, and extending that threshold further, it has not gone under 2.5*C for 31 years and counting.

Winter 2020-21 could have been a teaser winter for something even colder this winter, and it looked fairly promising especially after last year's first significantly cold April CET since 1989, and up until the end of last summer the prospects for this winter looked good, but then the warm September came along and winter 2021-22 has turned out to be the "warm September = mild winter theory winter," well and truly testing it and unfortunately coming true again, and clearly shows along with other previous examples that warm Septembers do not favour a colder winter to follow, and warm Septembers really are winter killer patterns for any cold patterns to develop in the following winter.

The provisional February CET up to the 14th was 6.9*C, which makes it I believe, provisionally the mildest first half of February since possibly 2011; correct me if I am wrong?

2016-17 wasn't much better than this one, certainly in the way of cold outbreaks from proper cold synoptics, and that winter, like this one had a very warm September before it, and as it has been seen that warm Septembers especially high September CETs, do not bode well for cold conditions in the following winter, 2016-17 and 2021-22 didn't stand a chance of being cold ones or bringing much in the way of significant cold outbreaks. Certainly I would put 2013-14 and 2019-20 up there as being completely devoid of anything remotely cold, and 2015-16 and 2018-19 were not much better either. Certainly since 2012-13, only 2017-18 and 2020-21 were in any way respectable winters, and 2014-15 was reasonable in terms of cold polar maritime zonality, and for winters that follow warm Septembers, (Sep 2014s CET was 15.1) 2014-15 was better than many of them are. What we have not had for many years, and certainly very few of since the mid 2000s, is a winter that is milder than average overall but not without its colder moments; I would put 2011-12 in that category, and further back winters 2002-03 to 2004-05 fitted into the "milder than average overall but with their colder moments at times category."

Another winter that has failed to bring anything noteworthy in terms of a cold spell at all - and up there with the likes of others in recent years that have gone down as rubbish from a cold perspective. 2016-17 wasn't much different a winter to this one in being mild and uneventful without anything going on in terms of a cold spell - and that was after a very warm September like this one has been.

I think that in Friday's storm, for most areas it will be gales and rain, but I think that higher ground in northern England down to the south Pennines have a decent chance of seeing some snowfall.

I think you are correct there. I believe that a Scandi block of sorts did develop in late January that year but it did not come together to do the UK any favours in getting something cold from it, as low pressure was stuck over or to the west of the UK all the time and it never disrupted and slid east under the block so the UK never got any cold air from the east.

I am not aware that there was a brief Scandi block with snow flurries anywhere in winter 2013-14. If there was any sort of Scandi block in winter 2013-14, I do not think that it influenced the UK's weather at any time.

The 2010s also were not renowned for cold Christmases or Decembers other than 2010; though late Dec 2014 was quite cold, and so was the first half of Dec 2017.

It looks to me that the exact track of Friday's low pressure system / storm, will not be fully known until 48 if not 24 hours before the day, as these features are among the most difficult features of weather patterns to predict exactly more than a couple of days out.