LadyPakal

Just popping this image in. Image shows the difference - pink colour is ice difference since 18th Sept, pale green colour shows where new snow is (white is where the snow was on 18th Sept). Graphics from: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DAT...snow_alaska.gif

New sunspot maybe? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/09/spec...to-be-cycle-23/

I can understand that for a few months previously but what about all those they keep revising. When do you know what the right numbers are if the addition of a month in 2008 can cause a difference through the years to as far back as 1903? http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2964

What I want to know is, why adding the value for September has changed the values for so many other months this year (see my earlier post) including those as far back as spring. When can we be sure the numbers are not going to change again?

Just chucking this in here, seeing as GISS data is being talked about. Note the changes between temps at the end of August and the end of September. Some revisions can be seen. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/08/giss...mber-2008-data/

Coffee in some people (not that I drink it myself) can have a laxative effect if drunk in large quantities, I've heard. Certainly gets my husband 'going' first thing in the morning...

More likely the caffeine withdrawal is giving you the headaches. There's a lot of caffeine in DC.

GWO may be interested in this paper, regards global temp changes with regard to El Nino/La Nina effects. It may fit in with your theory. ‘Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperature Data of Earth’ - recently accepted for publication in Energy and Environment. Link here: http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0809/0809.0581.pdf Abstract 'The global atmospheric temperature anomalies of Earth reached a maximum in 1998 which has not been exceeded during the subsequent 10 years. The global anomalies are calculated from the average of climate effects occurring in the tropical and the extratropical latitude bands. El Niño/La Niña effects in the tropical band are shown to explain the 1998 maximum while variations in the background of the global anomalies largely come from climate effects in the northern extratropics. These effects do not have the signature associated with CO2 climate forcing. However, the data show a small underlying positive trend that is consistent with CO2 climate forcing with no-feedback.'

Thanks - good to know.

Anyone know where to find the definitive data on which spot belongs to which cycle?

Thing is about a lot of these really small spots & proto-spots. We've only been able to see them faily recently using the new imaging tools. Back just a few decades these would never have been visible - how do we tell what the spot counts really would have been 50, 100 years ago if current technology had been available. I think the only true way to reconcile this is to only use the tools available back then, to create a spot count which is on a level playing field with those from earlier times.

Check out the animation here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/03/wind...e-sheet-losses/ A nice illustration of the way the ice circulates around the polar region.

Looks like the proto-spot has faded out now.

If volcanoes are pimples on the face of the earth, I guess supervolcanoes (mega-eruptions or whatever name you prefer - personally I I like pretty nope - still swearinging scary-volcanoes) are the abcesses. Despite the acting I did enjoy that docu-drama in a kind of depressing way (the behavour of those politicians/military in charge was all too realistic...). Usually when it is shown on the Sky HD channel (in HiDef it looks amazing BTW) the science behind Yellowstone documentary is shown afterwards - also worth a watch if anyone interested. I find the docu-drama based on the Krakatoa eruption very good and worth a watch - it uses eye-witness documents to reconstruct the experiences of the main characters. This one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krakatoa_-_The_Last_Days - 'Krakatoa - The Last Days' Another good one is based on Pompeii & Vesuvius and (using some artistic license but also knowledge of who they actually were and information from an eyewitness, Pliny the Younger) reconstructs the final days of some of the people found as cavities in the ash, which they then used to made the plaster casts we see today. This one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pompeii:_The_Last_Day - 'Pompeii: The Last Day' Both of these pop up on Sky every so often.

Interesting read about some of the natural causes of warming - the LIA & MDO: http://people.iarc.uaf.edu/~sakasofu/pdf/r...tle_ice_age.pdf

The docu-drama was based on fact. Yellowstone is a huge volcano that has erupted previously - 6-700,000 years apart on average for the major eruptions (VEI7 & VEI8), altho' smaller ones have happened between those. The major eruptions were of different intensities but all pretty devastating. Much depends on how much magma is eruptable and we won't know that for certain until it starts erupting. Here's a nice graphic on Wikipedia to explain the size of Yellowstone (it's last major eruption anyway) better than words can: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:VEIfigure_en.svg

Dated Jan 2008 - if we are all still here then no need to worry...

As we are probably the worst thing that ever happened to this planet, maybe we should not be so flippant about a 15% mortality rate from an already threatened piscine ecosystem. On a not-quite-serious note, I think we should hook up all of the treadmills & stationary cycles, used in the multitudes of gyms around the country, and generate power from them. Maybe everyone should be made to do a daily 1/2 hour inside a large 'hamster wheel' (put them on every street corner), which could be used to generate electricity. This would also solve some of the general weight/lack of exercise/health issues we have as well. Maybe those who cycle about can have a device that charges AA batteries up while they cycle - as well as their lamps. There are enough people on this planet so maybe we should harness the energy from their general daily activity. Make them earn the CO2 they exhale. Re: nuclear - just popping this in - saw it during my troll of various websites this morning and this post brought it to mind. The current views of a longtime Green party member.

Can't help wondering how the sounds (and there will be some) from those underwater turbines will affect sealife - especially the cetaceans. They're finding out now that the sudden air pressure changes around wind turbines cause bats to die - will there be a similar affect with sudden water pressure changes? Any studies done on this sort of thing?

Better now after a long sleep. It's funny what you can remember when drunk tho' - it's been a loooong time since my Uni days (studied Geology). I'm starting to think I should have done my exams inebriated... mights have got a first! One of the chaps on my course is now a Professor of Vulcanology - saw him on a program about Anak Krakatau - he was trying to work out which direction the pyroclastic flow would go next time it erupted big time. Yes, there are always some volcanoes that surprise. That's the fun of it - well, as long as you are far enough away from the explosive ones. Had an interesting time snowmobiling around Yellowstone a few years ago. The last year it was allowed before they stopped it inside the park in fact. Seeing the steam coming off the hot waters surrounded by deep snow is a fantastic sight. Buffalo & deer hang around the hot springs for the warmth. There were a surprising number of people waiting for Old Faithful to go off. The car park was full of snowmobiles. Wierd to think what will happen there one day.

Sorry, I'd had a skinfull when I wrote that!

You need to look at the type of material a volcano has previously erupted to know what to expect - if the volcano is acid (felsic - has a lot of silica in it) or basic (mafic - has a lot of magnesium and iron). This is a good sign of the type of eruption you can expect. Basic volcanoes (the ones that erupt basalt - like the Hawaiian ones that make the shield type volcanoes or low angle cones) are none explosive as the lava has a lower viscosity than the acid types and doesn't tend to form plugs. The ones you need to watch for are the acid ones - these make the typical higher angle cone shaped volcanoes and also the 'hidden' collapsed caldera types, like Yellowstone and Toba. Between eruptions they form pretty hard plugs in the main vent which go off with a bang once the pressure has built up enough. These explosive acid volcanoes are also the ones that can make the nuée ardente/pyroclastic flows seen in the Mt St Helens eruption and when Krakatoa went bang.

Check out the Seasons changing thread in the General Autumn Discussion area. http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=49216

Xmas stats in Aberdeen: 2007 min of -6.1, high of 5. Dry. 2006 low of -6.1, high of 0.6 with fog. 2005 low of 2.8, high of 5.6. Dry. 2004 we had snow with a low of -2.2 and a high of 2.8. 2003 low of 2.8, high of 10.6 - warm and dry that year. 2002 low of 6.7, high of 8.9 - warm and dry then too. 2001 low of -1.1, high of 2.8. Another snowy one. If I remember this one, it started snowing in the afternoon (we were at a friends for xmas) and had just about stopped when we set off home in the evening. Cold and crispy walk that was - very xmassy. Maybe this year will be snowy again.

I'll just chuck this in here: http://www.exchangemagazine.com/morningpos...day/091811.html 'New theory predicts the largest ozone hole over Antarctica will occur this month A University of Waterloo scientist says that cosmic rays are a key cause for expanding the hole in the ozone layer over the South Pole -- and predicts the largest ozone hole will occur in one or two weeks.' Combine this with the lower solar winds recently announced, and then add this into the pot: 'The Heliosphere is thinning, and thus will block fewer cosmic rays. Heinrick Svensmark theorizes that an increase in cosmic rays reaching the Earth will drive cloud formation, increase the planet’s albedo (reflectivity), thus cooling it.' Quote from http://icecap.us/index.php Give it a stir and see what we get...