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Sawel

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Posts posted by Sawel

  1. I run a Met-Office climate site in Angus (Tealing) and for about 6 hours, my site was the coldest of the season with a reading of -11.5C. The temperature plummeted from -5.0C to -11.5C between 5 and 8pm. It then clouded over...frustrating.

    Altnaharra was the lowest overnight with -12.5C. Looks like my site was joint second coldest with Kinbrace. If only I had the rest of the night without clouds...

    Check out the temperature plummet and the snowless hills in the background in the second pic!

     

     

     

    IMG_20231203_090319280_HDR.jpg

    IMG_20231203_090958771.jpg

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  2. 5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    How cold did we go last night / morning, mins for Scotland and England, suspect coldest temps of this spell.

    As I mentioned in my post above, the winds had picked up in the Highlands and it wouldn't get anywhere near as cold overnight, and it didn't. Lowest UK temperature was -11.8C in Drumalbin, 35 miles SE of Glasgow.

  3. 28 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Is this the lowest min so far? I think so.

    Last night min was Benson -8.3 degrees. The next few nights are looking notably cold, and I would be very surprised if by Friday somewhere hasn't gone below -10 degrees. Tulloch Bridge is already -7.1 degrees.

     

    Yes, it was the lowest of the season but will be blitzed tonight and tomorrow night too. 

  4. 5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Target to beat. Surprised somewhere in the Highlands hasn't gone below -10 degrees as yet, probably too much cloud and wind, but highly expect this to happen in the days ahead.

    Conditions aren't conducive in the Highlands yet for -10C or so - there's too much of a breeze and it has been cloudy with some places getting good snowfall. From Sunday, when winds die down and skies clear at night, there will be temperatures up there below -10C. Watch this space.

  5. 3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    Shap coldest spot overnight, -8.5, well according to BBC, coldest minimum so far. Shap does well in these set ups, far inland, high up, if there was snow cover, would have easily gone below -10 degrees. Need some snow cover to produce lower temps, Highlands should be much colder tonight, less cloud and snow cover. Can we go below -10 degrees, I think so!

    Officially -8.9C at Shap overnight according to the Met-Office on Twitter.

    The stations in the Highlands will be recording some very low temperatures over the weekend and into early next week as the winds will die down. 

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  6. 15 hours ago, Snowandrocks said:

    There are a network of weather stations installed in cold Deeside and Donside spots by a local amateur weather guy based in Braemar. 

    Don't think he has one in Tomintoul but has a few along Strathdon in Aberdeenshire and they're quite often quite a bit lower than even Braemar. Could be interesting if we get a proper cold spell. 

    The trouble with amateur weather stations is that many are not very accurate with poor radiation shields, calibration issues etc. Secondly, the siting of the weather station often falls short of accepted standards. If the weather stations were Davis VP2 with reasonable siting then they could be taken much more seriously.

  7. There's going to be some very low temperatures recorded from midweek onwards in the Highlands. Given there will be a northerly element to the wind with associated snow showers, this is typically the most favourable conditions for Altnaharra and Kinbrace to record the lowest temperatures due to freezing over snowcover and their northerly latitude helps. Aviemore should get decent snow cover too and will be amongst the lowest temperatures. Braemar will obviously be amongst the action too.

    PS - It's a pity there's no official weather station in Tomintoul. It does really well with snow when there's a northerly element to the wind. I'd be expecting some very cold temperatures there.

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  8. On 23/11/2022 at 18:38, damianslaw said:

    Thanks for these, hadn't realised last night was so cold, so we have a new figure of -5.7.. Grantown on Spey, I think all the others are not official stations?

    None of the stations in that list are official Met-Office stations. 

    The Met-Office owned Aviemore station recorded -5.9C so that's officially the lowest of the season.

     

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  9. 18 minutes ago, Paul said:

    The verification stats held at ECMWF are much more comprehensive and includes many more models which we don't get to see like the Korean Met Agency, BOM (Australia) and a few others. 

    https://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/850_z

    Also, you can choose which models you want or don't want to compare so you can compare verification stats from all the models or just a couple if you want. Not only that, but you can see the average verification over 3 months as well as monthly.

    Oh, and another very useful feature is that you can compare verification for the northern hemisphere as a whole, or, North America only, Europe only, North Pole only and other areas!

    Hopefully people will take the time to go on and find out for themselves which models typically verify the best.

    Some myths which need to be nipped in the bud regarding verification at the 120hrs - 144hrs range...

    Myth 1 - The GFS is one of the big three.

    Fact - The GEM had pretty significant improvements a few years back and typically verifies better than the GFS. The GFS has not been getting significant enough improvements over the years to keep pace. Just ask the likes of Ryan Maue over in the US! 

    Myth 2 - The GFS is an American model and therefore, has a better handle on modelling the US better than the ECM

    Fact - The GFS typically models no area of the world better than the ECM.

    Myth 3 - GFS handles Greenland heights better

    Fact - Although you can't specifically select Greenland, you can select areas like the North Pole. The ECM typically models every area better than the GFS.

     

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