[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards]

I imagine the yellow warning for Thursday will be upgraded to Amber nearer the time. I don't think the MO normally issue Amber warnings that far in advance.

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards]

4 hours ago, Snow Monster said:

Morning all. Not posted in a while but this coming week has got my attention. What a stunning outlook from the Met Office to wake up .can’t remember them being so blunt about a forecast for a long time. 

I spent a bit of time last night making new snow depth sticks as couldn’t find the ones from 7 years ago. Nearly time to see if I made the scale high enough.....

"Frequent and heavy snow showers for the rest of the week. Travel disruption likely." 

Not sure I've seen a forecast like that before!

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards]

3 minutes ago, aggy said:

Serious question how will the whole of Ireland get pasted with snow but Ayrshire won’t ? ?

Eastern parts of Ireland will see snow from the Easterly...

Other parts of Ireland could see snow if the low moves up through.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

1 minute ago, ScottishSnowStorm said:

I wonder what the spread is in the ens from cold v warm perspective maybe 25-13?

The clusters normally come out after 10pm which should help with that.

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UKMO precipitation chart shows snow hitting Eastern parts of Scotland on Monday morning. That's the start of the wintry spell up here with snow forecast until Friday at least. 

 

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3 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

what do the ensembles show ?

The EC mean shows the low being more progressive than previous suites but not to the extent of the OP run.

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They're more obsessed with it being too mild next weekend. 

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-15c uppers make it across Northern Ireland at around +90hrs on the last 2 GFS runs. A trawl through the archives reveals that last happened in February 1991.

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards]

3 minutes ago, Serac said:

Some weird ass MOD focus from many just now. Focussed on a low at end of next week despite day after tomorrow due ... well day after tomorrow. 

Our in bound snowage ferocity seems to be cranking up big style now. 

It begins

Yep, couldn't bite my tongue any longer so had to make a post in there telling some of them to get a grip. 

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OK, completely sick of some of the nonsense in here. TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT THE UKMO AND GFS IS SHOWING AT +72 HOURS.

How long have we been waiting to see charts like these at 72 hours? Some have been waiting decades. Now how can there be any negativity when we have charts like this only 72 hours away?

I am quite amazed that people are not more excited given all the failed easterlies we've had to endure over the years. Easterlies normally disappear at 120hrs and yet here we are, after all this time of chasing with nothing to show only blood sweat and tears (OK maybe not blood, depends how hard you whacked your keyboard when things normally went titus verticus) we are facing a severe cold spell with some areas looking at substantial snowfall.

Ladies and gentlemen, after all these years, we can see the train.

 

 

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards]

It's refreshing to see that there's been gradual upgrades for our snow chances north of the border since Tuesday. At one point, it looked like Scotland would be stuck under high pressure whilst our good friends down south would get buried in snow. Fast forward to now and what we've seen is that low pressure nudge up from France which allows us to stay under the influence of easterly winds well into next week rather than everything sinking south. Our southern brethren get close to a snow storm but at the same time, teeter on the brink of being too marginal if the milder air pushes far enough north. 

It's looking like there's going to be 4+ days of very cold and bitter easterly winds with lots of snow for many. 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

2 minutes ago, snowydog said:

When UK wide is mentioned in here, I often wonder if Northern Ireland is included in those statements ... purely because I want to understand the excellent analysis of charts provided here and the impacts across all areas ..... I am learning a lot though  keep up the great work people ?

 

There's a strong English bias because most posters are English. It is what it is and it's refreshing when posters discuss the UK as a whole and some do but plenty don't.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

27 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

When this cold spell finally ends, will that be a Brrr-exit? 

Here's my take on the evolution:

Gradual increase in North Sea streamer production through Monday with an episode of heavy snow moving into northeast England late Monday and spreading to central counties by Tuesday, widespread near-blizzard conditions in Midlands, Yorkshire and northeast to Wednesday, more isolated streamers in southeast but some locally heavy.

Then this intriguing look of a looping moisture-laden low scraping into the edges of the cold and possibly making slight inroads into the south briefly with mixed precip but heavy snow likely to develop across large parts of southern England and Wales towards Friday 2nd. This could turn into a blizzard-like storm for Midlands and Wales as North Sea streamers are integrated into precip shield. 

Looks like a possible reload early next week.

These are certainly stunning charts that, if they verify, will produce weather to rival anything recorded in the past, at least the inter-glacial past. There may have been better charts around 18,000 B.C. but somebody erased the archives. 

Nothing for Scotland and Ireland then? I enjoy reading your posts and I'm sure many fellow folk north of the border do and the same across the Irish sea so perhaps you can include Scotland and Ireland in your thoughts?

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, 101_North said:

I lived about 2mins from the beach so rarely saw snow. In fact you could go years with none. I remember the odd decent snowfall but I reckon my love of snow now is in part down to the lack of it growing up!

I've always loved it and my happiest childhood memories involve snow. I think this is what brings us together on a forum like this - our years grow but the little kid inside us remains when the white stuff is falling.

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards]

12 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Bangor. About as snowless a place as you can imagine . You'll have done much better for snow near Strabane I'd imagine?

I remember quite a few good snowfalls. I lived higher up than Strabane and a bit further inland and a northerly always delivered the goods. A northwesterly was also good.

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18 minutes ago, 101_North said:

What a coincidence! I've been in Edinburgh/Currie since 1999. Moved from Northern Ireland

I come from North Tyrone (Strabane area) how about you?

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20 minutes ago, Norrance said:

1978 was great here too and only equalled or bettered by 2010. Inland especially in the Highlands there have been many better events but for the East coast these are the best since 1963/47 etc.

 

 

I've been in Dundee since 1999. Moved from Northern Ireland. 2010 is head and shoulders above anything I've experienced to date and is the yardstick of cold and snowy spells that I judge others against. I love hearing and reading about the famous winters in bygone years from 47 up to the 90's. Would have been amazing to have experienced them but with this cold and snowy spell looming I have a chance to experience something akin to those epic winters of the past. 

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9 minutes ago, Norrance said:

I was working in Aberdeen that year and did not get much snow inFebruary.  Weekends either in Dundee or Perthshire and there was some snow but nothing causing significant disruption unlike Eastern Englandshire.

Fingers crossed this spell kicks its ass..

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards]

4 minutes ago, Paul Martin said:

Can only speak for Embra in Feb 1991 easterly. 2-3 weekdays of heavy snow showers then on the Saturday afternoon into the Sunday a heavy and long fall. Decent depths, I'd have to find the pictures I took in town on that Sunday (didn't do digital photography back then!). 

Have many events bettered that other than 2010 I'm guessing?

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards]

21 minutes ago, Norrance said:

1991 was nothing special in Eastern Scotland though it was cold and there was some snow. Jan 1987 was much better and even Feb 1986 was snowy here although very cold but dry down South.

Looking at the archives I would have thought that eastern Scotland would have been pummelled in 1991? Hope this upcoming event is one to remember!

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards]

A sift of the archives reveals that the last time Scotland had -15c uppers from an easterly was back in Feb 1991. I wasn't living here then so this will be something new if ECM and GFS around 120hrs are to be believed.

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Even ol' misery-guts Arpege sneaks to the back of the line and says yes 

 

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Everyone relax, WMC Moscow says yessssss

 

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1 minute ago, Purga said:

Any good folks?

It's the UKMO output at 120hrs. 

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@Man With Beard mentioned some ECM ensembles shifting the coldest temps towards Scotland - I wonder if this is similar to what the GFS op is showing around 168hrs.