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wellington boot

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Everything posted by wellington boot

  1. wellington boot
    Hm, a bit conservative no? I'm in Richmond myself and watching closely, and so far it seems to be sticking together quite well and maintaining intensity, and I'm thinking lucky parts of West London could get that big yellow blob. Together with leading and trailing edges etc, that has to amount to 1-2 inches... Orientation seems to be WNW on one viewing, but if you watch the energy, you can see that still has slightly more WSW tilt to it. Plus the models have tended to show it veering more to the southeast eventually after riding over the hump. We'll have to see if it does keep its course and intensity obviously, but IF it does, i reckon there might be a bit more than a cm in there. In any case it's already hit eastern half of London and will disrupt the city and embarrass the metoffice amusingly.
  2. wellington boot
    Hm...ok... 1) Noone sane ever compared this to 1987 or forecasted it to be comparable, except for in one key respect - the max depth of cold achievable (purely based on 850s). 2) It's not a standard easterly - the depth of cold, particularly at this time of year, is exceptional. 3) Many will remember it, and for more than five years. Specifically, all of those who have received 6+ inches and stand to receive even more in the coming days. As well as those of us who remember/are interested in striking synoptics and other less obvious features like intense if brief snow showers, or record temperatures, etc. Just not sure what your point is. Suspect this is just the standard whimpering and whining we get on here when full grown adults don't get the snow they hoped for and need to take it out on someone...
  3. wellington boot
    Yes, and 1987 was a once in 300 year event by some measures. But you mentioned a whole bunch of years, which also didn't compare to 1987. And 1987 also lasted two weeks. This spell has been going for 1.5 days and is unlikely to last anywhere near as long. Give these synoptics two weeks, two months earlier in winter, and everywhere would be buried... What an absurd comparison.
  4. wellington boot
    Good of you not to blame anyone on here for weather that you're finding unsatisfactory. Once again, people have simply forgotten/don't understand the nature of cold spells in this country. Unless there is a frontal snow event, which was never forecast until later in the week this time, affected areas and totals will always vary, from zero to any number of inches (within reason...).
  5. wellington boot
    You've been proved wrong already. Just as in those cases not every area was deluged with snow, so this time snow totals vary. The fact remains there are a lot of places and people with 6+ inches of snow. Success. And everywhere is feeling the freeze.
  6. wellington boot
    It's clearly far from 'all hype'. Read these pages more closely. It's met or surpassed expectations for many. Big hit I'd say.
  7. wellington boot
    Photographic update from near Wadhurst, near Tunbridge Wells... 7 inches reported earlier looks more than plausible...
  8. wellington boot
    I'd be shocked if there wasn't more over the next 24-48 hours. Suspect it will be similar areas maxing out, although the orientation will change a bit which could change things a bit. 7 inches reported 10 mins south of T Wells so far. I'm in SW London right now and we have nothing to speak of. Considered going down to Sussex to enjoy this spell, but decided the mature thing would be to stay here and get on with work... hm....
  9. wellington boot
    You're not under the arches are you??
  10. wellington boot
    Exactly, and look how it's hitting those areas a bit further south... T Wells down to Bewl getting pummeled... Always the same...
  11. wellington boot
    Hehe, nice that I'm remembered by someone...! I still lurk and occasionally post when things get interesting and I have time. Sometimes wonder if I should get more involved again, but a) it depressed me when the site reset and I lost my post count with my thousands of old posts... and b) I feel like I would need to put in some more work and learn something new if I wanted to posted anything worthwhile - my accumulation of meteorological knowledge (reasonable at this point) has stagnated, and it's somehow less fulfilling to chatter away if I'm not learning actively. Anyway, generally don't have time these days, as it becomes a problematic drain of time if I get involved in posting and discussing... Wrt to your point, I would agree there is a big difference if you go down to Tonbridge. I was at school there, and I remember how much worse it always did. Maybe 30m asl? Sometimes nothing there when 7 inches at home (2005 I think?), which makes snowdays look a bit suspect. South of T Wells, up in the Weald at 150m asl, we always get caught in the snow streams when E'rly through NE'rly, partic NE'rly, and temps and conditions are about as good as it gets in the region. Being a few miles in land in any direction helps as well. I think the issue with the last few years has been a general lack of snow opportunities in the SE...
  12. wellington boot
    Chill. Most places will see some lying snow at some point, some places will luck out and get dumped on, a few places might get unlucky and miss out. This was always going to be the case, as explained by others, due to the way showers form and 'cluster'. And it's still early. Alternatively, spend some years watching, learn where the sweet spots tend to be, and move there... I can tell you the Tunbridge Wells area and just south of there in E Sussex almost always do very well in any kind of NE'rly set up. I used to be based there and you always win around there. I called a while ago and checked and it sounds like the same happening again. Over 4cm lying at last measure...
  13. wellington boot
    Think this was always expected. NE'rly through tomorrow, turning more E'rly then SE'rly Tues-Wed.
  14. wellington boot
    Again, with all respect, what an utterly bizarre post... Why exactly shouldn't people focus on a possible breakdown, that being the interesting part of the discussion where there is model disagreement...? And what do you actually mean by "stand back and see how the models actually handle the realities"? These are forecast models, right? What is interesting about how they handle the "realities"? Are you aware of the purpose of this thread? In any case, as previously stated, I'd guess the GFS is onto something and today's output will see greater consensus achieved about the Thurs-sat evolution.
  15. wellington boot
    Strange thing to say I think. Who are you to say what should be interesting to people? The short term model output is pretty much all in agreement and settled. So for those who enjoy trying to interpret more ambiguous model output, the next point of contention is what happens on Thurs/Fri. Perfectly possible to enjoy the prospect/reality of the cold spell coming up while also considering subsequent outcomes...24 hours in the day...
  16. wellington boot
    My sense, based on my 15 years of model watching but minimal formal expertise, is that the next model to blink will be the ECM. Hopefully won't end up going all the way to the GFS, but in a situation like this I suspect the GFS is trending with good reason. So for Friday/Saturday, I'd currently expect an incursion of milder air into some portion of the S/SE. Beyond that, it's probably up for grabs with such an intense cold pool nearby. Some decently cold air could get pulled back or the S/SE might stay a tad warmer.
  17. wellington boot
    It will be chilly with a fair amount of rain. Didn't even need to check the models for that one...
  18. wellington boot
    Maybe this will be the time when GEM gets it right and all the others get it wrong. Warm, dry and sunny all the way from GEM... Interesting that ECM sends the remnants of Maria north next week, allowing the high pressure to 'seal' over the top of the first low tracking southeast, and potentially returning us to drier weather again. ECM far outperformed the other models in forecasting the last few hurricanes during the Carribean / North American stage - anyone know if that trend (outperforming other models in the 5+ days range) continued as they decayed into tropical storms and moved North?
  19. wellington boot
    Hm... But that sounds like you agree with me. Warmer sourced air on Sunday (actually only looks a tad warmer, but nonetheless...) means more potential to hold water vapour, which should mean lower relative humidity, assuming the same or lower absolute humidity. And again, surely total humidity would be expected to be lower given incoming air tracking over continental Europe rather than the Atlantic Ocean. All I can think of is that it's something to do with flow further up in the atmosphere being more southerly in the next two days, as per the 850 flow charts, and that that filters down and means drier air at the surface too. Still leaves me a bit confused as to why that continental flow from Sunday onwards is so humid.
  20. wellington boot
    Can anyone explain why rel. humidity forecasts are higher for Sunday (and beyond) than they are for Friday and Saturday. The models show a change from a S/SW flow to a SE/E, continental flow during that period. It seems to me that that should bring drier air to the UK. What am I missing? Friday: Sunday:
  21. wellington boot
    So it does pay off then...
  22. wellington boot
    What, so that there is no longer a discount for travelling at those times? And consequently, nobody travels during off season? But what about "tourists during the off season does help the local economies"...?
  23. wellington boot
    Not sure about that. Can see the potential, but it has fizzled rather. The majority of the generally quoted repair bills tends to occur in the States, and it's too early to say if this will have done that much damage. Certainly in terms of wind damage, it seems unlikely this will top any lists.
  24. wellington boot
    I'm going to come out and say what everyone's thinking. Keep it together Irma! I know this is going to cause destruction, and I sincerely hope people follow instructions and evacuate or otherwise protect themselves, but we've come too far for her to fizzle into Florida as a cat3 or anything less than cat4 minimum. So it's time to get out of Cuba, where they could really do without this, and to head north and put Florida's infrastructure to the test...
  25. wellington boot
    Agreed.
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