wellington boot

Lovely photos. When you plan Northern lights trips, do you look at activity and weather and book late, or just go for a week and hope for the best?

I think you need to read his message again more carefully...

Hey get off that fence! You have been emphatically in the cold camp, rejected models suggesting a warm up, insisted it would stay blocked and cold. And I for one hope you are right.

I suspect he doesn't forget that, since he acknowledges explicitly that it is SOME members who have been enjoying great conditions. Probably also expects people on here to behave like adults and to be capable of accepting others having a good time without becoming upset because they haven't had the right weather themselves... Aaanyway, a little disheartened by today's modelling of the next few days in the SE - not the upgrades I was hoping for, and some warmer 850s threatened than shown yesterday. On the brighter side, we had ice-y, hail-y pellets today among what I expected to be uniformly rain.

Agree with this. I actually thought the UKMO nailed it a couple of times and got little credit, after being written off when it wasn't showing what people wanted.

I'm at 150m! Which way will it go?!?! I've backed this being snowier than generally forecast for a while, at least inland and over higher parts of the undulating SE - been here before and we have had significant snow in similar supposedly marginal situations here. On the other hand, a marginal ENE'rly in early January is unusual, and a quick rise in temps and spitting rain during yesterday's warm sector made me nervous. Was also concerned last night how much rain the short termers were showing, even if I stand by my forecast... Is it possible to rank the short term models by resolution and by verification? Have a sense of some biases built up loosely over years, but don't really know how they compare in this regard.

Agree with this. Admittedly it might be partly blind optimism, but I'm expecting some snow, at least in favoured spots within the SE corner through the first half of next week. Been through enough of these situations over the past 17 years or so to know that unexpected snow is always possible via streamers. Additionally topography and local conditions vary considerably across the SE and maps showing a single dew point or temperature reading across that whole corner are simply not high enough resolution to help with forecasting local detail. Over the downs, the hills, and here in the Weald, for instance, I think we have a solid chance of some good falls next week, even if the detail is difficult to predict because the exact location of streamers is impossible to know in advance. At my home, I would hope 150m of altitude, 30-50 miles inland (depending on orientation), and the relatively shorter sea track will be enough to modify temps and dew points down, especially at higher ppn rates. Just need to get into a shower stream!

Oh my... That is amazing... Almost hurts to think that likely won't happen...

Wow I had no idea the ECM was showing so little in the way of warming. or negative wind anomalies. Seems a stark contrast with the GFS output. Can anyone shed light on the relationship and reliability of these two models when it comes to strat forecasting?

Well it is very often the case that gfs picks patterns first, but i would argue this is because it runs twice as often and looks a significant chunk further into the future, and it's various runs spew out such a wide range of scenarios that by the time any synoptic comes into the reliable timeframe there's a good chance you saw it on GFS at some point earlier. Doesn't mean that's very useful.

Yes although we all know the 6z is the GFS run we least want on board if it's only one... (albeit the end of the 00z was also pretty splendid) In general, there seem to be sufficient signs of a return to something blocked and non-zonal over Christmas that I'm quite confident of that. On the other hand, as illustrated by those ECM clusters above, I think the chances that a blocked easterly-ish scenario might be unusually mild/dry are unusually high...

I always cringe a bit when people get so worked up and worry about the pain experienced on here when the snow doesn't arrive. I mean, I want snow as much as anyone, but are we not all adults...? When things don't work out, yes, it's disappointing, but isn't all the hand wringing over the pain we'll suffer when we don't get snow a bit much? People are just enjoying their hobby and getting caught up in the excitement, even if it comes to nothing most of the time. I assure you, enforcing a consistently sober and objective attitude on here would be a good way to cut participation by 90+%... Re the models, I agree that nothing is really worth looking at beyond t144, except as fuel for fantasies. There are more indications on ECM of at least surface hp around Greenland than there were yesterday, so that's something to hang on to. Need a seed high to help get that Russian high ridging west...

Interestingly this evening's ECM shows much higher pressure over Greenland than the 00z. I posted earlier about the GFS's (not the 12z...) persistent modelling of surface HP over Greenland, with ever increasing upper support, whereas the ECM and the UKMO had nothing at any level start to end. Well this evening the ECM has persistent surface high pressure over Greenland and an inkling of upper support - at t240 it looks like it might be ripe for the Scandi high to ridge across...

Something perhaps being a little overlooked is the degree of difference between these models at very short range. Within the first 72 hours, there are critical differences between the major models, and as I think @nick sussex noted, a humiliating climb down is coming in the next day or two for at least one of them. Insofar as a computer can be humiliated... To illustrate, the GFS has a surface Greenland high from t24, with some height support, and in both respects that grows steadily through the entire run, right out to t384, where we have a full blown, mature GH. Meanwhile, both the ECM and the UKMO have very nearly eliminated any surface high from Greenland at just t72, and by t96, the surface high and any heights are gone, never to return. GFS: ECM: UKMO: The rest of these runs are heavily influenced by events in that area, so until that evolution is figured out, it is difficult to take anything beyond it seriously.

Sorry but one can't see what those charts are exactly because the key information is cut off. And I'm not totally clear from your captions.

Interesting charts and as you say, perhaps some positive signs there. On the other hand, you can easily see how we worm our way excruciatingly out of a good cold spell even with blocking in place to the North and North East.

Also can someone please explain to me how the QBO can be in both in an easterly and westerly phase at the same time...? Have come across this clash before without following up - is it that different sources are focusing on different atmospheric levels?

I am a bit perplexed by the focus on these CFS runs. It seems there are enough members to cover the entire space between record breaking weak and record breaking strong vortex, so in what sense do they actually indicate anything useful? In any case, most members, certainly after correction, seem to forecast positive anomalies...

Whatever GFS is showing is unlikely to be more plausible than ECM'S offering... Delicious charts from ECM. People are fooling themselves if they think there is any chance of good cold spells at this point anyway, as we're a solid month away, so any charts showing amplification and warm air being funneled up to the Arctic should be welcome. And with the short days and low sun, I think those warm ECM charts would still serve up some very autumnal conditions morning and evening. Something for everyone...

Encouraging signs looking at this evening's models. Has really been nothing to comment on for days given unanimity on 10 days under an unmoving LP. Now GFS is somewhat consistently beginning to show other options featuring at least transient ridging from t168, and ECM is finally showing some signs of moving tonight. Long way to go, but at least some indications that it might be worth digging into some proper data again...

Is this serious...? (Realise it may not be) Tamara has nailed this whole period previously across several posts. Anticipated the models' difficulties, and accurately outlined the direction the weather was likely to take here and more widely. Personally I am very impressed indeed.

Indeed, was wondering the same myself. Just haven't had time to comment on it! The whole run looks decent and generally settled for the South and next week looks promising for all parts. As I commented yesterday, even remarkably close ten day chart agreement among models was very unlikely to stay that way, and indeed this morning ECM doesn't just push trough influence back to day 9 but the trough barely registers south of Yorkshire and by day 10 HP appears to be building back in. Plenty to feel optimistic about over the next couple of weeks.

As before, it doesn't look particularly warm, but at least for the South it looks generally dry and settled for much of the next ten days. It is also noticeable that there seems to be almost unanimous agreement right now that an enormous LP will sweep in on day 10 precisely. However, when have the models ever had a unanimous lock on day 10 developments...? You have to assume this will change and evolve as we go along, and if AAM really goes sharply positive by mid month, then anything is possible...

Very interested in your analysis. Feels like we've been looking at different charts for a while now. NOAA and EC/GFS anomaly charts have gone roughly where it seemed to me they were going, and seem to suggest positive anomalies over the UK. Meanwhile even NWP is consistently producing relatively persistent high pressure dominated scenarios for the UK. Admittedly the signs are that we might end up under the eastern end of any HP cell and generally retain a westerly flow, but with Tamara's analysis in mind, these details seem ripe for upgrades... Anyhow, even if there is cloud mixed in, it looks pretty pleasant, especially compared to the last week or two. I'd agree it doesn't look warm, but it looks pretty settled to me. Wondered whether it was a question of our respective locations, but even with that in mind and following a quick check of some Northern cities, it looks decent from some time later this week.

Well definitely not, no. One of the most reliable models is consistently showing a build of pressure and a potentially sustained period of warm, settled weather. Another shows an improvement but we can't see beyond 6 days. The NOAA anomaly charts are promising and show a significant positive anomaly close to us or over us during the next 14 days. Meanwhile, Tamara has outlined a series of factors that support not only a much improved spell of weather, but which also undermine some models' attempts at a rapid breakdown. I'm surprised at the lack of activity in here and the lukewarm chatter of a possible warm up towards mid month - from tomorrow it starts to look much better for the South and within a week there is a real prospect of widespread warmth and sunshine...