wellington boot

Does it really have no signal for any change? Surely there is a hint of a ridge pushing up at all levels just West of the UK on the 8-14 day? Maybe "marked" is the operative word. Obviously the changes are relatively subtle at this point. But the anomalies are a 6 day average, so one should only expect them to change gradually. If that kink was a little further east and a little more pronounced later today, I would see that as a positive trend and a sign that things may be changing.

Can anyone tell me which forecasting site/sites use ECM data exclusively? Is this even advertised?

Agreed it doesn't bode too well for anything really exciting, but those in East Kent have already had a pretty good evening. We're a bit stuck in between bands here under perpetual light snow unfortunately - the shower stream seems to be slowly shearing into two as the winds shift around, and the echoes are fading fast as they move inland anyway, as usual for this spell. Re your comment about pressure, I would say that these spells always remind me of the limited importance of pressure in these set ups. We started with pressure close to 1000hpa, correspondingly lower heights, and a howling wind blowing in from the NE, and we managed persistent light snow and showers struggled to make it 20-30 miles inland. Latterly we've had pressure at 1020hpa, a much slacker flow, and now winds switching around to SE, and the showers, while still struggling disappointingly to drive inland, are making better progress and delivering some of the heaviest snow so far to many...

It did again didn't it...? Typical of this spell really, showers struggling to push inland effectively. That said, I bet it fell at a pretty decent rate for a while there. 5 miles to your south east, we seem to be running up in between the worst showers right now... Happily it is still snowing lightly and somewhere along the line we've gained a new cm or two blanketing any bare patches of paths and road. Now nervously watching the next lot, examining closely for backbuilding, and hoping for a couple of good hits...

Been looking at the models again, and I'm half dispirited that the one day they show us getting a direct hit for a few hours, they seem to be wrong, but half optimistic that there might be a bit more to come. The hourly charts from the hi Res models show the showers in a much more stable pattern and even tilt back a touch more easterly as the day progresses. All further NW than currently shown on radar also With further shower formation evident, there's got to be a chance of a few more showers.

Moderate to heavy snow here for the last 30 mins, even though the radar has it losing intensity rapidly as it gets here. Must be very heavy a little way further NE. Annoyingly, the whole band does seem to be shifting South fast and I'm not sure we'll stay in the good stuff for more than this one shower. Why can't we just have one stable, static-ish streamer...?! Also these showers are continuing to struggle with maintaining intensity as they move inland. Irritating, as the North Downs aren't THAT big, and it's been less of an issue in the past... EDIT: Just eased right off. Been the problem throughout this spell for us. Almost constant snow for days but a critical lack of intensity limiting accumulations and impact.

Started snowing here, about to hit properly I think. It's very noticeable how the streamer has already shifted South - how confident are we that this will stabilise for a while and not simply keep sliding South?

Are these charts publicly available anywhere? I've been looking for them on and off the past couple of days and can't find them.

Honestly that still looks very favourable. I do find those charts intriguing though - are they supposed to be a snapshot? Because if they're showing ppn total, then they're very strange and clearly unhelpful. Make much more sense as an impression of how the radar will look at that particular time.

Oof, do not like that. I mean, it probably makes little difference, because you can see from the next one that it will gradually sink South and hopefully therefore cover the whole region along the way, but... I preferred the ones that had the convergence line right over my head...

Agreed, I'm more optimistic here than I would be there, BUT a) the Fax charts suggest that stream could/should extend right through into the channel, and b) you just never really know... Doubt it will be good for more than a cm or two anyway, but I'm guessing a proper layer would please you very much, and I'm greedy for all I can get...

We do still seem well set for another lot of snow tomorrow with that convergence zone still expected in the same area (perfect for us here), but... still 24 hours away, and also looks very short lived. Forms beefy showers that sink south through the area in a couple of hours. Crossing my fingers regardless.

Don't get too wedded to the idea - I'm looking out for it but not expecting it!

It's not over at this stage, but it does look like falling somewhere between a classic ENE streamer through S London and a classic mid Kent streamer. Suspect where I am I will just miss the best of it on the South side. Doesn't look likely to be especially intense, but would still expect it to push further inland over the next 6 hours or so. Couple of photos of drifts from here today:

Difficult to say. Clearly there are showers forming and they may eventually push further inland, but we'll still need to be lucky to get into a shower stream and stay there for any length of time. Right now I'd guess we're too far south for the most intense streamer activity, but it's just impossible to know how that's going to organise itself over the next 6-9 hours. As I noted before, the latest FAX for Wednesday looks really promising for us with a convergence zone exactly where we want it as winds switch back towards NE'ly, but as much discussed on here, there is still time for that to change... unfortunately...

Yes the FAX for Wednesday has a convergence zone right over our head, angling SW from the estuary over Kent and East Sussex.

May be those miles between us, but I always feel we do well. Between 2009 and 2018 we had 4 or 5 events with 6+ inches of snow, which is pretty damn good for this part of the world. Has been a struggle this time relatively, but everything is white and we have two inches laying plus drifts, so can't really complain. Unfortunately those showers forming in the estuary are struggling to drive inland at the moment, but time for that to change.

I'm prob just over 10 miles ENE of you and I'm at the same. Looks great for now and seems to be pepping up - concern for me is that I'm about as far SE as I think will possibly be covered, and I could easily see a slight reorientation occurring which puts me just to the South of it. But that's if it even gets inland as far as us...

All true. Ultimately the greatest activity later is likely to form in the estuary, however, and even if it tracks due SW, we're too far south and east here for estuary streamers. The Euro4 has us under a little prong of higher snow totals that extends SE off the main streak coming in from the estuary, and it showed something very similar under the original band on Sunday, which makes me think it's related to the vagaries of that particular model and it's view of this area, topography perhaps. Generally I'm hoping there will be as many and as wide streamers as possible, and who knows what will happen...

Yes I know, in theory, some chances. And we are far from the most needy! Euro4 still has us down for another 10cm or so, but doesn't quite seem to align with other modelling of possible streamers, which tend to be further North and more W-E aligned than we would generally want. I've seen secondary streamers hit us before, south of a main estuary band, but that's far from a rule.

Yes we're prob just a little way SW of you guys in Medway, and it has been a little disappointing so far and the strength and penetration of the showers from the NE a little underwhelming. Dont get me wrong, maybe 2 inches on grass now and everything is beautiful and white, and I'm happy with that, but we've undershot some model targets by a way.

Did he? I remember putting this to him and he said conditions weren't right this time and he gave himself an almost 0% chance... Just saying...

How do we see this band evolving now? Is this going to push SE? Any chance of it draining South? How about convective activity behind the band? Anything more expected to develop tonight?

You must have some snow now? We've had light snow for a while and as you say it's filling in the gaps nicely and topping up the inch or two already lying. Unfortunately can't read the movement of this band, so not sure what chances we can stay under the good stuff for any length of time. Annoying that all the energy seems to be draining North - they have plenty up there!

Yeah I hope so. Thing is it looked very heavy and large at the point it went over you, whereas it's fizzled and changed shape now. It isn't a classic streamer formation - seems to have skidded on the ice and rotated and fragmented a bit. Hoping to see more consistent streamer action set up.