wellington boot

Never rule us out in this kind of setup! I'm over towards Wadhurst and we tend to outperform around here. We haven't been quite so lucky last few years, but over the past 15 years or so, that's typically the rule. Think good elevation, hilly terrain, surrounded by sea but not too close, good exposure to NE streamers, and rural area with no UHI all helps. I do see what you mean - looks like the band could pivot right around us and leave us in a little dry spot, and 0cm is a plausible low end scenario, but I'm always optimistic...

Front has arrived here and i thought the temperature had dropped about 10 degrees. Actually we are still at 32C and it's lovely. Amazing weather though. Big, dark, angry clouds, strong gusting winds, almost howling at times, leaves and debris flying around... Not typical weather for this place, but really lovely.

Exactly. It's moronic. If I wanted to spend my life wringing my hands over the misery of others, there is plenty to stress about in the world at any given moment on any given day. Frankly, you can even make a case that it is immoral to spend your life doing that. Pity and anxiety and finger wagging about things that others have no control over is worthless.

Well at least I'm having a great time!

Think we got fractionally ahead of ourselves here with morning sun near the thermometer. Have stalled out at exactly 37 for the past hour. Hope to move forward a little more through early pm.

Yes I know. Still nice to be first through the record, and that was always going to happen further south... Anyway i was just kidding.

Sounds like someone is jealous... Thought you were a shoe-in to be first past the record in Cambridge... Well we can compete down here too!

Thermometer here reading 37C now. Would think that might be a bit high, but actually it is a) well shaded, and b) the sun is no longer on the east wall. It is also consistent with the met office report from Charlwood, which is 45 mins west of here. It's uncharted territory for the mercury in our thermometer at any rate.

Is that cloud cover that is expected to form? If it is the stuff that already exists over channel and Northern France, it is difficult to believe that will be with you within 2 hours.

You're not that far west of us here, and you don't lose the hottest air till much later today - strange that your projected maxes seem to be so much lower. Although I guess the air moves out gradually, and it only has to be a couple of degrees cooler at the critical time.

Wow this is unbelievable. I checked the temperature here just before 10am and it was 33C. At 10.30am it now shows 35C... EDIT: I should note it is on the east side of the house, so it may be reading a little higher than it should, albeit it is well shaded and located on a surface that doesn't get direct sun. I suppose the heated brickwork and stones around there might be blasting some reflected heat towards it.

*more progressive, not overly. Let's remember this is all still in the future, so we don't yet know which model will be most accurate... Models have been out on their own many times before re details on the day and ended up winning the day...

24C here in E.Sussex still at 2am. Feels like we may have gained a degree or two from a couple of hours ago also. We are probably not a prime location to be breaking the nighttime record, so given the extreme night time temperatures we currently have, I would think it is almost certain somewhere will break that record. Probably London at least.

Yes, agree. This summer is starting to look pretty great. There was a point in early June where it looked like we might lose the whole month, but in fact it was just a week, and another somewhat cool one later on. Other than that, it has been dry for months, and increasingly sunny and warm. If July finishes well and August is half decent, this will feel like a great summer, especially with any records broken tomorrow. 2018 was stunning, and my hope is that global warming will make that kind of thing a little more common than we would currently expect... Would have to check, but down here my memory is that it started in mid April and only really broke some time late September or October, which is ridiculous in this part of the world.

Haha... I mean, hang on a moment... You said it went tits up, which of course it may have done where you are. But it didn't here, and high 20s/low 30s is far from tits up anywhere. In fact, it's arguably perfect for summer!

It didn't go tits up here in the SE. Was a glorious summer, April to September. 2018 felt positively Mediterranean around these parts, and generally it feels like we're only rung below that many years. Even in the worst years these days, we seem to get a good number of lovely summer weeks.

We'll need that flying start down here. Near Tunbridge Wells we have struggled to get much past 33C. Think we are just a bit too close to the channel to compete in these circumstances, despite uppers >20C, but with a warmer start tomorrow we might still hit upper thirties.

What are they referring to re the Scottish record? I thought the Scottish record was 32.9C?

Looks great to me, at least for the South East. Maybe some variability and a bit of rain along the way, which would be great - otherwise, plenty of warmth and sunshine. Elsewhere it looks a bit marginal, but plenty will do just fine over the next 7-10 days. Not sure why there is so much gloom over the model outputs. A few days ago it looked like we might lose everything, but things have turned back our way.

Excellent post, and saves me writing out something similar!

Yes indeed. The last two days of sun already felt glorious and summery and we've barely started on this spell yet... Looks like a good week coming up and plenty of promise beyond. NOAA anomalies also pretty much matching the current output. Perhaps some kind of low hanging just West for a while at 6-10 days, but the second week looking like HP dominant across a wide area.

Yes I think this is right. That chart and others we've seen like it look much preferable to what we've had recently. Not as deep, warmer, better orientation. Reminds me of some of the weather last June, which I found quite pleasant - warm enough, sunshine and less frequent showers.

Thanks for this. A good example of how charts don't always tell the story, especially when viewed at 3 day intervals in quick succession! I realise I should have been more careful with my characterisation in any case, since there was nothing summery till the second half of June, which makes for a very late start. Given that fine details can make all the difference regarding how HP or any synoptic arrangement is experienced on the ground, any correspondence between 1987 and 2021 is still not necessarily a bad thing, and we definitely do want high pressure close by through summer. But with that said, I take such comparisons with a pinch of salt, and there are some glaring differences in the starting conditions, such as Nino vs Nina. And with that said, I shall go and glance at those 2013 charts...

A few notes on this comparison, even if dfficult to tell all from a limited review of the archive. The spring overall is not a bad proxy for this year, but the April looks much warmer than this year, less northerly influence and much less northern blocking. However, there is a similar overall story, and both follow a January SSW (can't find the data to remind myself how the two events compare) Everything looks a little later also in 1987, in that the late storms and cold, wet weather continued well into June. The evolution as that weather changes is similar to what might happen over the next week or two, with the low track shifting North, and the Azores high gradually pulsing up with high pressure West of centre. We might be in a similar phase of the solar cycle now, but more significantly 1987 was a moderate (and increasing) El Nino year, whereas we are currently still under La Nina (albeit decreasing). If we ignore those contrasts for a moment and entertain the model, then the good news is that 1987 looks like a decent summer from the charts, particularly in the South, and all the way through to October. Frequently HP dominated, plenty of sun and warmth. Occasional disruption from upper lows and intrusions from the Atlantic, as you would expect.

As per my message yesterday, I would say the trend has continued in the most recent set of anomalies and is looking increasingly positive, both in the 6-10 and 8-14 day charts. Another day or two of improvements and I think we could have some confidence that change is on the way. Would also be consistent with Tamara's analysis from yesterday.