wellington boot

Very difficult to read this band. Might be breaking up as it gets to me, might just be reorganising.... Where's it all going?

No snow, are you serious? That's incredible. You're about 10 miles from me, and there's another guy on here in Salehurst, which is smack bang in the middle of us, about 5 miles from us both. We have a dusting on roads and paths and 1-2 inches on everything else. You have almost nothing. The guy 5 miles from us both, right in the middle, has 5 inches level covering everything...!

Ooh lucky. We're just up the road and have that inch or two and it didn't settle on roads all day. Plenty of streamer activity, but perhaps not the very heaviest. I wonder if you benefited from that early strong band to get everything settled. If we'd had strong snow for another 30-60 mins, I think we'd have had a solid layer everywhere that would have only built up later. Still optimistic for where we'll end up at the end of the night.

Not sure how I ended up reading posts from so many hours back, but this isn't really right. Dew points pretty much across the UK are several degrees below zero, and temps are widely around zero or below and dropping.

Ha, I was literally about to flag that fax chart and tag you... I'm torn between wanting it to hit you so you have your snow (and more importantly my own comments last night seem more prescient), and hoping that there's still time for it to end up 60 miles further East so that it hits me instead...

Really?? I mean if you're trying to match them, your radar shows the past two hours, whereas the others all start now and extend more than a day into the future. So what is being matched? And as far as matching does go, they all show nothing for now North of the South East, whereas the actual radar shows convective activity all the way up the East coast to Scotland.

I think it might also have led with picking the movement of the LP yesterday into today and the less impressive 850s as a result (hence my earlier question that was ignored...). Re this next spell, I'm interested to see the EC/GFS anomaly charts are fully onboard. Less excitingly, the NOAA charts show significantly meridional flow, but at 8-14 days, it is less pronounced than at 8-10, and unlike the EC/GFS, there's no 'closed circulation' or reversal in the flow. Interested to see tonight's, and more runs probably needed. Would be good to hear @johnholmes's thoughts if he hasn't already been in. ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Can someone who has been monitoring the short term modelling over the past few days offer an informed opinion on how much further North this LP currently affecting the SE ended up than the model average suggested, if that makes sense? I think the GFS showed warmer 850s and the LP further North than many were forecasting yesterday, and obviously the MO forecasted a colder and snowier event, and that forecast will have been data led, so clearly there was significant variation in output. On the other hand, by yesterday, there appeared to be general consensus that the LP would stay further south and colder air would predominate from the early hours of Sunday morning. I'm interested in how the broader 24-48 hour modelling of this current event aligns with what we are currently seeing.

Yup. After roads/patio/paths briefly settled and covered over, I'm a little surprised most of that has melted with the decreased intensity. Wish I had a weather station to look at DP - can't be far off where we need it. As you say, when we get back into the green stuff I'm hoping we'll kick on to the next level, because everything else is lovely and white.

Greater intensity and presumably ever lowering temperatures now have hard surfaces becoming covered. Gradually... Everything else nicely white.

Under a heavy pulse now and coming down quite thickly - even settling on roof... and yet roads and paths still resistant... Guess we just need a real spurt to get them settled. Met office has removed some "heavy" snow for today (although 7 hrs still left supposedly), but still shows snow for most of tomorrow and 8 hours of "heavy" snow. So decent convective activity definitely still anticipated. Worth waiting patiently if it hasn't happened for you yet. The snow will also only get colder and better.

Everything white here... Apart from roads and paths... Not doing too badly and got heavier recently, but I do want to see this on roads and hard surfaces. Last key transition point into a proper snow event.

Hmm, I'm going to need that band to edge a few miles West or at least to blur at the edges. Can't be dealing with being the wrong side of such a sharp gradient... That said, persistent if mostly light snow is blowing around and gradually turning things white. Sky is brighter than you'd want it to be ideally

Just over near Wadhurst and it's looking similar. Light or moderate snow by turns starting to settle everywhere, although struggling with road thus far. Disappointing it's so late but clearly plenty of ppn out there - just need it to nudge 5 miles west or so as we're just a shade outside the heavier band, which is frustrating...

Do you not think this is premature? Snow still forecast for most of the next two days and temps will soon be safely the right side of marginal.

Truth in this. We're currently 12 mins into the amber alert window, which lasts for the best part of two days... Also signs of activity increasing out at sea and temps moving in right direction, as observed by many. The met office updates for my area now has snow non stop through to Monday evening, 0C within an hour, and 14 hours worth of "heavy" snow (which we know actually to mean very likely snow). With that said, I don't love the way those stronger echoes are sticking by the North Kent coast and refusing to continue inland. However this is a minor concern at this point and was also pretty much forecast.

When was the Feb 05 fail in relation to the March 05 success? I remember we had 7 inches here on 2nd March from a little feature which curved through the SE'ern corner.

Check now! I'm very close to you and ten mins ago looked out of one door and saw just light spotty drizzle. Ten mins later, I just looked out of another door and it looks like light snow. I think it is technically still going to be sleet as it is fine and wet and nothing close to lying yet, but in the porch light you can see it move around and flutter very distinctively like light snow.

Makes sense, thanks. My understanding is that convergence is generally difficult to forecast, even at short range, so let's hope something changes for you over the next few days.

Yes I'm not too worried for myself, as I'm much further East and hoping I'll be in the firing line. Just surprised the showers wouldn't get further, especially as the winds turn more easterly over the next few days. Remember endlessly long streamers from ten years ago that seemed to run through London and all the way to the west country. Might be a big question to ask, but what is responsible for the lack of forcing in this case?

Ok, reasonable. Why don't you think the streamers will make it? I've been assuming there would be a few surprises further west with such strong winds available to blow the showers through and such low pressure generally.

Yes I hope so. I'll be posting on here and will probably even manage a few reports if it turns into a terrible disappointment.

What do you mean when you say ppn is really pepping up if you then say it doesn't look too good for heavy stuff? I don't think this will be marginal a few hours from now, and there's plenty coming for many and heaps for lucky ones. Stay patient.

I agree that this is a sensible attitude at the moment given where you both are. I would be living more in hope than expectation over there. But what has changed that you are now less optimistic than you were earlier today?

I'm close to Wadhurst. I'm hopeful it might kick off rather sooner than 5. Don't want to get ahead of myself and clearly no guarantees, but we can do very well in these set ups, and at this point the extra altitude of the Weald is helpful as the air coming from the NE flows uphill over a distance to reach us.