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Jane Louise

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Posts posted by Jane Louise

    Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd October onwards 2013

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Morning all,

    A couple of forecasts for today from Estofex and Dan from UKASF.Posted Image

     

    Storm Forecast
    Valid: Sat 02 Nov 2013 06:00 to Sun 03 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC
    Issued: Fri 01 Nov 2013 22:23
    Forecaster: PISTOTNIK
    A level 1 was issued for Ireland and Wales for severe convective wind gusts.
     
    SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
     
    A broad zonal flow covers most parts of Europe, distorted by a progressive, deepening trough and another powerful cyclone which cross the British Isles during the forecast period. Minimal and rather shallow CAPE is forecast in the belt of augmented low-level moisture along its cold front over Northern Portugal, Northern Spain and France, and then again in its wake over the British Isles and the Bay of Biscay, where lapse rates steepen in response to QG lift. Shower activity in these areas may be accompanied by a few lightning strikes. 0-3 km vertical wind shear does not exceed 15 m/s, but the strong background wind field can promote some severe wind gusts even with weakly organized convection over Ireland and Wales (25-30 m/s flow at 850 hPa).
    Further downstream, a forerunning frontal wave crosses BeNeLux and Northern Germany but gets dampened by a lack of forcing. Leftover patches of (elevated) CAPE near its crest might allow isolated thunderstorms in the 06 to 12 UTC time frame. However, their northward displacement from the stronger kinematics of the warm sector should preclude any severe weather.
     
    Scattered to widespread showers will form in the cool maritime air mass off the Norwegian coast, which is characterized by deep mixing and very weak vertical wind shear. They will barely grow deep enough to produce any lightning.
     
    To the South, quiescent conditions prevail over the Mediterranean Sea, but scattered showers are still possible in the range of a decaying upper-level low around Italy. An isolated waterspout is not ruled out, especially along land breeze fronts in the morning hours.
     
     
     
    UKASF
     
    Synopsis
     
    Large upper trough will approach from the Atlantic, with axis aligned N-S down western Britain by 00z Sunday. At the surface, a deepening low will track northeast from Ireland to the Borders, and thereafter exiting across the North Sea during the evening hours.
    Discussion
     
    Behind the wrap-around front, cold mid-levels will overspread warm SSTs, significantly steepening lapse rates and generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop across Ireland during the midday and afternoon hours, this activity translating to and becoming more widespread across Irish Sea and Celtic Sea areas, and along adjacent exposed west-facing coasts. Particular attention is given to Pembrokeshire, Devon and Cornwall during the evening and into Saturday night as very steep mid-level lapse rates suggest more widespread lightning activity - potential, perhaps, to upgrade some coastal areas to MDT.
     
    An increase in offshore convection is also forecast near the coasts of eastern Scotland, grazing Aberdeenshire and tracking further northwards through the evening towards Orkney, and Shetland after midnight, hence the inclusion of a second SLGT area.
     
    In both cases, 30-40kts DLS will allow cells to become well-organised, especially at first, and with strong LLS and SREH, a funnel or waterspout is certainly possible. Dry surface air suggests cloud bases will be quite high, albeit dropping slightly during the evening hours as the surface layers moisten. Some small hail is likely in several stronger cells.
     
    • Like 1

    Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Hi folks I'm new just joined this morning, why am I getting the impression reading the latest opinions of this so-called storm approaching that's it's not going to have the sting initially thought?... Looks like a lot of the models are downgrading it, hope it doesn't turn out to be another damp squib like that storm they threatened a few years back. There was quite a nasty squall line earlier this morning, some heavy rain and 40mph+ gusts I'd say, I think the media and the national TV forecasters will have egg on their faces if that's pretty much all it turns out to be a brief squall at best!  :-(

    Hi Adam,

    Welcome to NWPosted Image Could you please pop where you live in the UK into your profile or signature. Thank youPosted Image

    • Like 1

    Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd October onwards 2013

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Jane Louise

    Synopsis

     

    Beneath a very sharp/elongated longwave trough, a new surface low will track northwards across Ireland, while surface fronts migrate northeastwards across most parts of the British Isles. In the post-frontal environment, cooling mid-levels over warm SSTs (and LSTs) will result in some convection chances.

     

    Discussion

     

    A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop offshore to the south of Ireland around 05z-07z as a shortwave trough destabilises an environment with 600-800 J/kg CAPE. This shortwave/cluster will then expand and drift northeastwards through the remainder of the forecast period, reaching SW Scotland/Cumbria towards mid-afternoon. In the wake of this shortwave, further showers and a few thunderstorms will develop elsewhere across the Irish Sea, Wales and SW England. Depth of instability is questionable, and hence lightning coverage remains uncertain/borderline SLGT, but given ELTs down to -40C in a strongly sheared environment (30-40kts DLS) some sporadic lightning is expected from any well-organised cells. In fact, despite the cold front/occlusion passing through, surface dewpoints will still be around 13C leading to low LCLs, and given 25-35kts LLS with some slight backing of surface winds, there is scope for an isolated tornado. The strongest cells may occasionally exhibit supercell-like characteristics, capable of producing some small hail and gusty winds.

     

    http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/290

     

    SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #035ISSUED: 1300UTC THURSDAY 24TH OCTOBER 2013

    SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS - SOUTHWEST & SOUTHERN ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDSBRIEF, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES - SOUTHWEST & SOUTHERN ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDS

    IN EFFECT FROM 0200UTC UNTIL 0900UTC FRIDAY 25TH OCTOBER 2013

    JET DRIVEN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE WITH POST-FRONTAL INSTABILITY, WITH FAVOURABLE SHEAR FOR WELL ORGANISED CONVECTION

     

    DISCUSSION:

    THERE IS MODERATE MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK DURING THE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE SW WILL PUSH AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE UP THROUGH THE UK, DELIVERING SOME 20-30MM OF RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT TIME. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN POST-FRONTAL SHORTWAVING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WALES LATER IN THE MORNING, SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION COULD OCCUR. INSTABILITY IS ONLY SLIGHT, BUT THESE AREAS ARE HIGHLY SHEARED BOTH VERTICALLY AND DIRECTIONALLY, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR WELL ORGANISED CELLS TO OCCUR. MOST LIKELY ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT AND ADVECTED ONSHORE INTO COASTAL AREAS, THOUGH THERE IS SCOPE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THEREAFTER INLAND. THE ONCOMING JET CONVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD STIFLE FURTHER CONVECTION AFTER THE WATCH PERIOD, SO THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

     

    http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

    The main thing is to keep ourselves and others safe  no matter how much  we are  fascinated with mother natures wild weather events.

    Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd October onwards 2013

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Jane Louise

    Hi Everyone

     

    As you know I reported one of the best thunderstorms i had ever seen the other night, the lightning was was just incredbile, literally like a light switch. Anyway my mate has aloud to share some lightning photos with you lot from what he caught the other day!

     

    Enjoy!

     

    Posted Image

     

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    Also heres others from IOW Radio

     

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    This one is shared around alot and I just have to share this too, this is my favourite

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    These last lot are all on IOW radio

     

    Once i sort out my video of the lightning I caught, ill upload it 

    Wow they are amazing. Thank you very much for sharing them with us.

    • Like 3

    Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd October onwards 2013

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    In the next decade..is a safe enough bet I'm 100% sure of it!

    Coastlines are the places to be it seems for more chances of a light show or two? if the past few days are anything to go by. And boy some looked very juicy indeed Posted Image

    Diddly squat here since I dunno April? Can't remember lol.

    Or never lol. Yes, by the coast has always been good for storms in Autumn and then the Summer is mainly in the North East. Oh well, can't win them all Lol. Roll on next year!Posted Image

    • Like 1

    Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd October onwards 2013

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Here you go guys. You'll find your answer here.

    Taken from my facebook.

     

    Torro - the UK's Tornado and Storm Research Organisation shared a link.
    3 hours ago near London, England · Edited
     
    You might see this picture going around this morning, supposedly showing funnel clouds and Portsmouth, or Plymouth, depending on where you read it. Actually, it is neither - it is, in itself, a doctored image (see the comments for the original) - it's a shame that some people feel the need to try issue such fakes, but they're often fairly easy to spot/disprove:
     
    Tornado And Lightening Stock Photo 90033073 : Shutterstock
    www.shutterstock.com
    Download royalty free tornado and lightening stock photo from Shutterstock's library of millions of high resolution stock photos, vectors, and illustrations.
    • Like 7

    Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd October onwards 2013

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    ........there is certainly some energy up there tonight! A great storm, very squally, lightening every 10 seconds at its peak and a lot of rain in a short time. Made the mrs turn off Bake-off, open the curtains and turn all the lights off so we could see the best of it! One day i'll grow up......................not! Posted Image

     

     

    ........ps    strange to start a new thread mid storm! lol

    Tis never been strange. A new thread should always be started after 15 pages but I let it go on. 

    • Like 1

    Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd October onwards 2013

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    A new thread here for the rest of Autumn. Autumn has been  very good for storms this year! although sadly not everybody has had one yet. Posted Image One rumble of thunder and one flash of lightning so far this year for me which I'm most grateful for . I am certainly not giving up any hope just yet as we all know storms can happen anytime of the year.  Posted Image Anyway good luck again all  and don't forget to post up any pics and videos you have.Posted Image

    • Like 2
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