Fitzwis
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Posts posted by Fitzwis
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9 minutes ago, coldfingers1 said:
Just read your post. Gurnsey and Jersey were earlier shown on Ventusky weather charts to have winds gusting as high as 105 mph. That is easily in 87 storm weather! Stay safe and DO NOT go out whatever happens when the wind is screaming. Littlehampton has had 3 tornadoes hit it this year, one only last Saturday. Nothing to say there wont be enbeded tornadoes in this storm as far as I know.
The strongest gusts recorded in Jersey reached 96mph during The Great Storm of 87’ so Storm Ciaran could well surpass those values here
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15 minutes ago, toggerobz said:
If I remember correctly, the reason the '87 storm took so many forecasters by surprise was that the models run were indecisive and only predicting a moderate low exiting the Bay of Biscay. Obviously technology has advanced since those times with near real-time data available but as we've recently seen with Hurricane Otis - the weather does what the weather wants.
Also, the number of ocean based weather stations was far less at the time so the limited data the Met Office had access to coupled with outdated forecasting models was a recipe for disaster. Soon after The Great Storm, the Met Office received funding to rectify these issues
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9 minutes ago, GSP said:
I remember hearing a shipping forecast a number of years ago and for particular regions forecasted to have force 12 they issued the words exceptional and phenomenal seas.
Wonder on the next bulletin if these words are dusted down and used.
I recall the use of those words too but can’t remember which storm it was for or when. But if my memory serves me correctly, they were used for shipping areas off the West coast of Scotland, namely Rockall and Bailey
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And now the UK Met Office shipping forecast for our sea area (Portland) and sea areas to our immediate South and West (namely Plymouth, Sole, Biscay and Fitzroy) has really upped the ante ...
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1 minute ago, Downburst said:
Thanks for letting us know
On the Storm, looking at 20 to 30 feet swell hitting channel Island peaking about 06:00 in the morning. Swell will dissipate after that. May be some extraordinary pictures and film captured as sun rise 06:55
Definitely. The Splash Cam (if not blown away) should give some incredible live images as it looks West over St Ouen’s Bay ...
Splashcam | Watersplash Jersey
WWW.WATERSPLASHJERSEY.COM
Check out the livestream of St. Ouen's Bay from the Watersplash.-
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Just been out with the bulldogs for their last walk here, probably until Friday morning. This image is taken from our South Coast looking South South West over St Aubin’s Bay. The tide is currently on its way in and once in, we doubt there’ll be much of a drop overnight due to rapidly falling pressure, increasing wind and storm surge. Not too many problems anticipated with this evenings high tide but tomorrow morning’s truly is a thing of concern ...
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The Channel Islands updated shipping forceast for Storm Ciaran makes for more sobering reading - 95 knot gusts which in old money is 103mph. Admittedly that’s over open water. Therefore, the islands topography will cause a small reduction in gust speed over land but not much so please heed the warnings my friends ...
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1 hour ago, Snowboy111 said:
what on earth have you posted there!. Lifetime timetable
shortened version
My bad
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1 hour ago, Jo Farrow said:
Ive hidden the long long list of Jersey warnings, seems like an error
Apologies Jo. I'll edit any shared links in the future
Sobering ...
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7 hours ago, Darren Vidamour said:
Well good luck with everything! I sure will be logging into the webcam on St Ouens Thursday just to get a idea of the impact of this storm.
Fingers crossed the webcam holds fast as the images from it will be extraordinary, considering its location ...
Splashcam | Watersplash Jersey
WWW.WATERSPLASHJERSEY.COM
Check out the livestream of St. Ouen's Bay from the Watersplash.-
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42 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Looks like the worst of the winds at high tide too. There will be major coastal flooding for sure on the main St.Helier - St.Aubin road.
High tide here on Thursday is at 08:40 at a height of 33.1ft or 10.1m. Considering our range goes up to almost 40ft or 12m it’s not the highest of tides. However, the storm surge, fierce winds, deep low pressure and predicted large swell will heighten this considerably and allow for increased tidal drop resistance which could be devastating for our coastal areas, partcularly Southern and Western coastlines. Not good.
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44 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
Météo-France graphic showing area for the strongest wind gusts.
Looks to be very bad for the Channel islands where they have announced all schools will be closing and everyone is strongly advised to stay indoors.
Indeed ... worrying times for many ...
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4 hours ago, Darren Vidamour said:
Hope my holiday destination every year is not hit hard! All them trees on the green lanes......Lets hope for a downgrade for everyone!
Absolutely. We lost many trees during The Great Storm of 87' and it's taken the last 36 years or so to recover much of the foliage lost during that event. Everything crossed for downgrades although I fear we're now inside the 72 hour reliable model timeframe and it's not looking too rosy. Our only saving grace will be if the strongest winds occur from the south west and west as the island's topography provides an element of shelter from these directions.
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13 hours ago, Snowboy111 said:
Well we don’t have a met here, just observers, so our info is from your Met. I suspect they’ll do it Tuesday eve. They’re not one for going early. Tides aren’t too bad. No springs so that’ll help. But we’re exposed so I fear a hell of a battering for a good 24 hours. No doubt you’ll record a 1mph quicker wind speed than us
Our tide is progged to be 33.1ft Thursday morning at 08:40 so yours can’t be far off. Coupled with deep low pressure and fierce winds, this will be notably higher so expect flooding along South and West coasts of both islands.
And if anything, with Guernsey being slightly further North and with the low forecast on its current trajectory, you should record the slightly higher windspeeds although I think I know what you’re saying
Interesting times for us all here.
Thursday mornings update for Guernsey is very similar to ours so will be interesting to see when a red warning is issued and if they advise all islanders to stay indoors ...
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Jersey Met Office Thursday morning forecast makes interesting reading. No doubt a red warning will be issued by them nearer the time followed by a meeting of the department of infrastructure and education. If islanders aren’t advised to stay indoors, I’ll be very surprised ...
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8 minutes ago, Snowboy111 said:
I’ll let you know how things go. That’s if I’m not blown into France. Proper exposed to this. Gonna be brutal.
Indeed. Will be interesting to see how our local met predict and handle this one, including when warnings will be issued encompassing tide alerts. Stay safe my friend.
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22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Interesting to note the Great Storm of 87 lowest recorded pressure was circa 953mb. One to keep a sharp eye on for sure, especially here in the CI and for those in Southern England and Northern France.
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Isle of Portland gusting to 74mph ...
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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Not sure I believe that. The same bouy also reported a wave height of 134.5ft
A rogue wave perhaps? Unlikely though but still, Noa appears to be packing a bit more of a punch than anticipated. Worth keeping an eye on.
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Some very impressive max gusts recorded so far today from Storm Noa:
Perranporth Harbour buoy G99mph at 1010Z
Prawle Point G85mph at 1043Z
Treknow Gull Rock nr Tintagel G84mph at 1050Z
Rame Head G73mph at 1122Z
Battening down the hatches here in the Channel Islands with the strongest winds expected between 2 and 5pm. Stay safe everyone ...
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Hey Everyone
Here's a short clip of the tempest that hit us here in Jersey yesterday evening at around 7:30pm, following a temperature of 32.7c recorded at Maison St Louis Observatory during the afternoon. Not quite a record breaker for us but close nonetheless.
The temperature gauge in the car fell from around the 30c mark to 20c in a matter of minutes, soon after being hit by the deluge.
And I have to say, it was intense to say the least
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Almost a constant rumbling of thunder here in Jersey with frequent lightning together with moderate to heavy rainfall
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Warning Level Red inbound
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Storm Ciarán
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
We’ll do our best to do so and thank you
