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Fitzwis

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    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Fitzwis

    8 hours ago, DonnaThw said:

    It’s awful here I thought it might of started to calm down but if anything it has intensified which is a shock. It’s so windy and pelting it down with heavy rain. Any recorded gusts on the south coast yet?? I can not understand why this hasn’t been named. It’s some of the roughest weather I’ve seen in a long while. 

    Taken from the web ... source unknown. But if verified, some very impressive readings from this morning indeed 

     

     

    Max gusts from un-named storm 03.11.19.jpg

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Fitzwis

    1 hour ago, Singularity said:

    Can't mind anything in the tropical teleconnections to suggest that HLB will necessarily force a mainly poor weather pattern for 1st half of August. Not a lot pointing the other way either, but ore than there is toward the cool and unsettled outcome. I suspect the models are, yet again this summer, showing bias toward Nina-like behaviour during times of weak forcing with a 'gentle' Nino standing wave competing against others of similar strength.


    For now, I'm focusing on the shorter-term. The LP incoming for Tue is very interesting in that it behaves more like a tropical cyclone than our usual systems. It's so compact - perhaps it will have some degree of warm core? Making it partially tropical. Could bring some lively downpours if so.

    image.thumb.png.25501b5a53628aefbe28d612f05f41b3.png

     

    Then we get to the question of 'where will it park up' as the westerlies capitulate (yet again!) and it comes down to the phasing of various lows within troughs to dictate the location of near-static ridges and troughs. This time it comes down to a couple of lows out in the N. Atlantic; if they merge, they amplify the trough-ridge combination with the ridge being across the UK, meaning the LP over us is eased out to the east. If those lows stay apart, that push to the pattern doesn't materialise, and we wait for the low to gradually fill in-situ. At least it's a 'warm' low; temps still look to do pretty well in sunnier breaks, reaching near or above the LTA for many parts (provided you apply a +1 or 2*C bias adjustment (a matter of judgement) to the GFS/FV3 raw output).

    It's that kind of setup where if you have time off, you have to keep a close track of things and plan around short-range developments. Can be frustrating, but hey, it's the British summer!

    A very interesting LP indeed with strong to gale force winds too for the NW of France, SW England and the Channel Islands 

    • Like 2

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Fitzwis

    No mention during the recent BBC forecast of a breakdown at the end of the week. If anything, the forecast focused on increasing cold, increasing wind chill (feeling like -15 in places by Wednesday) and the increasing risk of heavy and disruptive snow for the South towards the end of the week (Thursday and Friday), not to mention snow showers and bands of snow effecting all parts of the UK throughout the week. 

    Nothing to moan about there, just pure classic winter bliss even if we are heading into March. 

    Ramp mode 100% on!

    But on a serious note, keep an eye on the vulnerable (the young and the elderly) including our animal friends as this event is going to be about as bad as winter gets for us here in Blighty ?

    ❄️?❄️?❄️?❄️?❄️

     

     

     

     

    • Like 2
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