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guitarnutter

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Posts posted by guitarnutter

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    ECM does 3 things I mentioned earlier, the set up starts and conitnues more WEST, it develops sooner and the cold attack is from a NE'ly rather than an easterly. This is the way I see it and I think it is very plausible. Oh and it didn't suprise me.....I would have been shocked it didn't support the other models.

    BFTP

    Of course you were right, how could you ever be wrong? ;)

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by guitarnutter

    What im trying to say is firstly the ensembles will be useless here & only come on board in the 96 frame-

    Also expect LOTS of rollercoasters in the next 3-5 days.... the 12z GFS seemed to be the best-

    Eyes down for the ECM....

    Steve

    So, we are definately getting a beasterly?

    roller-coaster.jpg

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I'm dreaming of a white Christmas

    Just like the ones I used to know

    Where the treetops glisten,

    and children listen

    To hear sleigh bells in the snow

    I'm dreaming of a white Christmas

    With every Christmas card I write

    May your days be merry and bright

    And may all your Christmases be white

    I'm dreaming of a white Christmas

    With every Christmas card I write

    May your days be merry and bright

    And may all your Christmases be white</h2>

    A sound analysis of the models and their output, well done :whistling:

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    the routine Monday video will have the weather for Tuesday to Friday in fairly general terms but I hope to concentrate more on the northern hemisphere pattern, and what I commented on this morning, the change to the weather pattern, assuming it does occur, from about T+96 out to T+240. Then to compare the two models and how they are handling it.

    Sounds good, Johnny :whistling:

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Tendency in angular momentum is down once more, mainly due to a strengthening easterly trade wind surge and slight easterly mountain torque over the sub-tropics. Latest wavetrak image depicts this over the Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors:

    http://cimss.ssec.wi...s/wavetrkP.html

    We still have some poleward positive momentum transport supporting anomalous westerly flow 50-55N, but also hints of increased sub-tropical flow as a result of the tropical winds picking up. Frictional torques are suggesting a slight northward shift in the jet towards the sub-polar region which, in combination with the sub-tropical flow is supportive of the amplified pattern being programmed right now t144 onwards.

    http://www.cdc.noaa....ltauf.90day.gif

    Overall, the general direction of travel is positive for cold arriving via height rises over the UK and Scandinavia.

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