Supercell Hunters
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Forecast for Thursday
Fine day with lengthy sunny periods. Moderate southwest to southeast winds with local coastal seabreezes in the afternoon.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 4 Max: 20
Cape Byron: Fine. Min: 10 Max: 18
Grafton: Fine. Min: 5 Max: 20
Forecast for Friday
Fine. Moderate west to southwest winds, freshening on the coast in south later.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 3 Max: 21
Forecast for Saturday
Fine. West to southwest winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 3 Max: 20
Forecast for Sunday
Fine. Southwest to southeast winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 3 Max: 20
IDN1006002
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Here are few photos of severe thunderstorms past few years. They are one of the best and most incredibley severe supercells.
18th December 1998--Severe HP monster supercell hits Ballina
17th Janaury 2001--Severe HP monster supercell hits Casino and Lismore
16th January 2002--High Precipiation severe supercell hit Lismore
26th October 2003--Nasty cold pool easter'ly severe supercells
30th March 2003--Mothership spectacular mesocyclone
18th March 2004--March supercell causes violent winds, hail and floods
9th November 2004--Giant hailstones from merging supercells
17th December 2005- Dangerous tornadic (possible tornado) supercell
4th April 2006-- Merging supercells with storm forces winds gusts
8th January 2007--Massive RFB supercell, delievered hail, severe winds and floods.
24th January 2007--Massive updraft with enormous RFB cloud from supercell
8th March 2007--Massive microburst from High precipiation supercell
I.E. Theres alot more storm activity between March 2006 and March 2007.
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Hey all
I know someone wouldn't want me to chat about this study on this forums. But it generally scientific. Northern Rivers is major region in northern New South Wales in Australia. It lies between the border to Grafton, coast to Tabulam.
Northern Rivers region is most common severe thunderstorm activity in Australia storm season between September to April. We have alot of wild storms such as supercells (Texas-like storms). Over last few years, our storms have been increased their severity and activity. In 2002 (El Nino year) we had less fruequent storm season on record since 1905). Last storm season , over 50 severe storms have been passed through Northern Rivers and 15 of them were supercells.
In climatically, our thunderstorms have been alot more severe than last 55 years. Jimmy Degura said that Northern Rivers would have most supercells this season coming up on record. Therefore would be some superstorms such as Texas/US tornadoes.
Definition of Supercell is here
I would like to see the suggestions about this topic.
Cheers
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Synoptic Situation
A low in the eastern Tasman Sea will be a slow moving feature. In conjunction with a high pressure ridge to the south of the mainland it will generate a SW/SE air flow about the coastal waters during the forecast period. Winds are expected to remain strong at times in the northern waters through into Wednesday, with only a gradual easing trend. A trough developing in Eastern Bass Strait on Thursday should freshen the winds later in the week. There is presently a moderate to heavy swell about the coast and whilst this should gradually ease over the next day, a large swell is forecast to approach the central and northern coastal parts overnight Wednesday in association with the Tasman Sea low.
Far North Coastal Waters,Tweed Heads to Wooli and 60nm seawards:
Strong wind warning.
Tuesday until midnight: Wind: S/SW 20/30 knots grading to 25/33 knots offshore. Sea: 2 to 3 metres, rising to 2.5 to 3.5 metres offshore. Swell: SE 3 to 3.5 metres.
Wednesday: Wind: S/SW 18/23 knots, reaching 25/30 knots offshore. Sea: 2 to 3 metres, up to 3.5 metres. Swell: SE around 2 metres, rising to 4 metres later.
Thursday Outlook: Wind: S/SW 15/25 knots.
Friday Outlook: Wind: SW/S 15/25 knots.
Forecast for Wednesday
Isolated showers, chiefly near the coast. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds. Dangerous surf conditions.
Lismore: Fine. Lengthy sunny periods. Min: 5 Max: 20
Cape Byron: Mostly fine. Min: 10 Max: 17
Grafton: Fine. Lengthy sunny periods. Min: 5 Max: 20
Forecast for Thursday
Isolated coastal showers, otherwise fine. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 7 Max: 21
Forecast for Friday
Chance coastal showers. Fine elsewhere. Southwest to southeast winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 5 Max: 21
Forecast for Saturday
Fine. South to southwest winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 5 Max: 20
IDN1006002
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Far North Coastal Waters,Tweed Heads to Wooli and 60nm seawards:
Gale warning.
Monday until midnight: Wind: S/SW 20/30 knots inshore, reaching 30/35 knots offshore by evening. Sea: 2 to 3 metres, rising to 3 to 4 metres offshore later. Swell: S/SE 1.5 to 2 metres. Chance thunderstorm.
Tuesday: Wind: S/SW 20/30 knots. Sea: 2 to 3 metres. Swell: S/SE about 2 metres.
Wednesday Outlook: Wind: S/SW 15/25 knots.
Thursday Outlook: Wind: S/SW 10/20 knots.
Warning summary
Gale wind warning for coastal waters.
Forecast for Monday evening
Isolated coastal showers developing. Chance of a coastal thunderstorm. Mostly fine inland. Moderate south to southwest winds, becoming fresh to strong near the coast.
Forecast for Tuesday
Isolated showers, tending scattered near the coast. Moderate south to southwest winds, fresh to strong near the coast.
Lismore: Shower or two. Min: 8 Max: 19
Cape Byron: Few showers. Min: 12 Max: 17
Grafton: Shower or two. Min: 8 Max: 19
Forecast for Wednesday
Isolated showers, chiefly near the coast. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds.
Lismore: Mostly fine. Min: 8 Max: 19
Forecast for Thursday
Isolated coastal showers, otherwise fine. South to southwest winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 7 Max: 21
Forecast for Friday
Fine. Southwest to southeast winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 5 Max: 21
IDN1006002
Looking good for dry month of July! We need is rain. Sadly we are below average rainfall so far this year :lol:
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Gale Warning
For the Far North and Mid North Coast. From Tweed Heads to Smoky Cape.
SW/SE winds strengthening to 25/33 knots early Monday and reaching 34/40 knots later chiefly offshore. Seas rising to 3 to 4 metres. Swell to 2 metres.
UPDATED
Far North Coastal Waters,Tweed Heads to Wooli and 60nm seawards:
Gale warning
Sunday until midnight: Wind: W 10/15 knots increasing to W/SW 15/20 knots in the evening. Sea: about 1 metre, rising to 1.5 to 2.5 metres. Swell: S/SE 1.5 metres. Isolated thunderstorms
Monday: Wind: W/SW 15/20 knots, increasing to S/SW 20/30 knots, and S 30/40 knots offshore in the evening. Sea: about 2 metres, rising to 3 to 4 metres. Swell: S/SE 1.5 to 2 metres.
Tuesday Outlook: Wind: SW 20/30 knots.
Wednesday Outlook: Wind: SW 20/30 knots.
Forecasts for Northern Rivers seems a little way out because they saying light showers only for next few days expect tomorrow going for sunny. There were some reports of soft hail in Lismore area today with occasional wind gusts up to 70km/hr. The temperature now is 14.7C which is very cold. I have took few photos of nice small hail showers plus rainbows and base structures today. More to come.
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Forecast for Friday
Fine, mostly sunny. Moderate to fresh west to southwest wind.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 7 Max: 21
Cape Byron: Fine. Min: 11 Max: 19
Grafton: Fine. Min: 7 Max: 20
Forecast for Saturday
Fine. Light to moderate west to northwest wind.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 6 Max: 21
Forecast for Sunday
Fine. Southwest winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 5 Max: 18
Forecast for Monday
Showers developing, mainly coastal. Southwest winds.
Lismore: Chance shower later. Min: 6 Max: 19
Weather today was very gusty from west to northwest winds. Incredible the weather gets alot milder through the week with increasing humidity for 'showers' on Monday. So better watch the temperatures could rise again into warmer period for again.
We had great sunset on Tuesday and last evening too.
Shot at 2007-07-04
And these are from last evening.
Shot at 2007-07-04
Shot at 2007-07-04
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Far North Coastal Waters,Tweed Heads to Wooli and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday.
Wednesday until midnight: Wind: W/NW 15/20 knots and reaching 20/25 knots later. Sea: 1.5 to 2.5 metres. Swell: S to 1 metre.
Thursday: Wind: W 25/33 knots. Sea: 2 to 3 metres Swell: S to 1 metre.
Friday Outlook: Wind: SW 15/20 knots easing.
Saturday Outlook: Wind: W/NW 5/15 knots
Forecast for Thursday
Fine. Sunny periods. Fresh, gusty westerly wind, strong at times.
Lismore: Fine. Sunny periods. Min: 11 Max: 21
Cape Byron: Fine. Sunny periods. Min: 13 Max: 19
Grafton: Fine. Sunny periods. Min: 9 Max: 21
Forecast for Friday
Fine. Moderate to fresh west to southwest wind.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 7 Max: 21
Forecast for Saturday
Fine. West to northwest wind.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 6 Max: 21
Forecast for Sunday
Fine. Southwest winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 5 Max: 18
Weather will remain mild rest of week into next when while the next trough develops to get us warmer for again. Today weather was the hottest July on record. My weather station recorded 27.9C (round off to 28 degrees) which is warmest, Ballina airport recorded 26 degrees which is equal to record but may be a record for warmest. Now its decreasing to 24 degrees with mixed sun and clouds.
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Nearly 28 degrees now!
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Mid-Winter heatwave have setted in already! Temperature now is equal to July's maxiumin record! Its already 26.0C now.
Records here: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/stat...te&lc=58198
Well the air is awesomely very warm right now with night freshening NW lies. Nice mid to high level cirrus in far west. Looks like going to be the warmest winter day since last August which compared to 31.0C. It was 22C at 9am this morning. Which is hottest morning on cards.
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Today was the warmest nice sunny day with max of 27 degrees on my weather station. The sky filled with summery dust looks.
Forecast for Wednesday
Fine, mostly sunny. Moderate to fresh west to northwest wind.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 8 Max: 25
Cape Byron: Fine. Min: 13 Max: 23
Grafton: Fine. Min: 10 Max: 24
Forecast for Thursday
Fine. Freshening westerly wind.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 11 Max: 21
Forecast for Friday
Fine. Southwest wind.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 7 Max: 21
Forecast for Saturday
Fine. West to northwest wind.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 6 Max: 21
Last of all sumery type dust remain tomorrow until the rest of the week stays mild of 21C everyday except the mins continuing on wintery conditions. During Sunday (not on this forecast) the min will be warmer then average around 10C for Lismore.
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Hey
Great photos and thanks for giving information about them!
By the way the spelling is is not correct. It's "Noctilucent".
Cheers :o
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Wow!!!! Its bloody warm so early at this time of the day! Temperatures has increased to 22 degrees already! I rekcon we better watch out the July's max records. Looks like tomorrow going to be hottest. However we don't know if this July would bring up first 30 degrees day since the first 31C day last August.
Cheers
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Forecast for Tuesday
Fine after early fog patches. Mostly sunny. Light to moderate west to northwest winds.
Lismore: Fine. Mostly sunny. Min: 5 Max: 24
Cape Byron: Fine. Mostly sunny. Min: 11 Max: 22
Grafton: Fine. Mostly sunny. Min: 7 Max: 24
Forecast for Wednesday
Fine, mostly sunny. Moderate northwest winds, gusty at times.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 9 Max: 25
Forecast for Thursday
Fine. Westerly winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 12 Max: 21
Forecast for Friday
Fine. Northwest to southwest winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 7 Max: 19
Nice and warm days with gusty NW lies! Yikes! Then cooler SW change on Friday anyways. The weather charts showing another heat trough behind this front and the winds will be more easter'ly.
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Yeah i heard about that. Now shes not trapped!
Yikes!!!
Mon
Jul 2 sunny
Sunny 28°C 9°C
Tue
Jul 3 sunny
Sunny 28°C 10°C
Nasty blast of heat across the red centre lately!
Today is 22C and now it's 17.2C.
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Warmer tomorrow for 22C! Now its cold!!! Under 10C so far tonight. Armidale is under 0C already and producing frosts!
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Forecast for Sunday
Fine, mostly sunny. Light to moderate west to southwesterly winds.
Lismore: Fine, mostly sunny. Min: 5 Max: 19
Cape Byron: Fine, mostly sunny. Min: 9 Max: 17
Grafton: Fine, mostly sunny. Min: 5 Max: 19
Forecast for Monday
Fine, mostly sunny. Light to moderate west to northwest winds.
Lismore: Fine, mostly sunny. Min: 3 Max: 20
Forecast for Tuesday
Fine. North to northwest winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 5 Max: 22
Forecast for Wednesday
Fine. West to northwest winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 9 Max: 25
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Hey Shuggee
The average min is 8-9C. So yea 3C is coldest. Therefore it hasn't dropped below zero since few winters ago and i don't think it drop below zero this year due early spring.
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Brisbane forecasts:
Sunday Fine. SW winds gradually easing. Min 7 Max 20
Monday Fine Min 7 Max 21
Tuesday Fine Min 7 Max 22
Wednesday Fine Min 8 Max 24
Thursday Fine Min 10 Max 25
Friday Fine Min 12 Max 22
Northern Rivers forecasts:
Sunday Fine. . Min 3 Max 19
Monday Fine Min 10 Max 22
Tuesday Fine Min 11 Max 24
Wednesday Fine Min 12 Max 24
Thursday Fine Min 13 Max 26
Friday Fine Min 15 Max 23
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By BoM seasonal outlooks.
The rainfall are mainly 50:50 above average most of Australia expect the mid western Australia.
The temperatures in next three months will be above average than normal.
Weather for Ballina by average and predicted by the forecast outlook map by BoM. The temperature max and min will be 65% warmer than average.
July:
19.9 - 8.6
19.9 times 15% above average= 2.985
So the average max for July may be 22.9C
8.6 times 15% above average= 1.29
So the average min for July may be 10C
August:
21.0 - 8.7
21 times 15% above average= 3.15
So the average max for August may be 24.2C
8.7 times 15% above average= 1.305
So the average min for August may be 11.0C
September:
23.4 - 11.2
23.4 times 15% above average= 3.51
So the average max for September may be 27.0C
11.2 times 15% above average= 1.68
So the average min for September may be 13.0C
This would be a early spring for Ballina this year for again.
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Here is Brisbane's forecast for 7 days:
Saturday Fine Min 10 Max 20
Sunday Fine Min 7 Max 20
Monday Fine Min 7 Max 21
Tuesday Fine Min 7 Max 22
Wednesday Fine Min 8 Max 24
Thursday Fine Min 10 Max 25
Forecast for Sydney have temperatures around 20 to low 20's and mins around similar to Brisbane. Here for Northern Rivers forecast:
Saturday Fine Min 9 Max 19
Sunday Fine Min 6 Max 20
Monday Fine Min 9 Max 21
Tuesday Fine Min 10 Max 23
Wednesday Fine Min 12 Max 25
Thursday Fine Min 14 Max 27
So here we come for warmer weather coming! Note that last August max broke the record of 30.2C and keep watch July could have highest max on record if we say! Lets see what happens.
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Near 200mm of rain here so far in June and i rekcon it won;t rain anymore. Now we having colder nights with freshing westernlies. Weather becoming warmer in first week of holidays which is next week.
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Hey Blizz. I am sorry we already have a thread of Australia Winter weather 2007. Please advise to merge.
BTW good photos!
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Raining alot from this morning. Over 15mm recorded here and 7mm at the airport. There were some wind gusts but most of the winds expecting to increase this afternoon.
Australia Winter discussion 2007
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Forecast for Monday evening
Fine. Light to moderate northeast to northwest winds.
Forecast for Tuesday
Fine and sunny. Variable light winds at first, becoming light to moderate northeast to northwest in the afternoon.
Lismore: Fine. Sunny. Min: 1 Max: 20
Cape Byron: Fine. Sunny. Min: 9 Max: 17
Grafton: Fine. Sunny. Min: 0 Max: 19
Forecast for Wednesday
Fine and generally sunny, although cooler. Moderate southwest winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 3 Max: 18
Forecast for Thursday
Fine. South to southwest winds.
Lismore: Fine. Min: 0 Max: 16
Forecast for Friday
Isolated showers developing along the coastal fringe. Southerly winds.
Lismore: Mostly fine. Min: 3 Max: 18
IDN1006002
Going to be another colder days and nights rest of this week til during the weekend will get warmer. Hopefully this changes! I gotta love the heatwaves. Lets bring it on but the cold grrrrrrrr. We had nasty frosts this morning with thick morning mist still up all day. Today's max was 18.5 degrees. Colder tonight at 0C predicting to be colder than forecasted.