Supercell Hunters
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The satellite showing its really moving towards south-southwest direction instead forecasted going northwest! Looks like going to landfall by tomorrow somewhere south of Brisbane.
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat.html?...=&stop=#nav
Getting intense here atm, gusts reaching full velocity at 75km/hr remaing at 5 second mean wind speed at 24km/hr!
OCF forecasts now going onward for this event, but continuing rest of the week through new year period!
http://www.australianweathernews.com/OCF/OCF_058.HTM
Our coastal wind warning is very confused with wind speed, going below gale by later tomorrow??? Still saying the low is moving northwest, compared to satellite clearly showing moving south-southwest!!!
Forecast for Sunday evening
Scattered showers. Moderate to fresh south to southeast winds, strong near the coast.
Severe Weather Warning for Damaging Surf Conditions.
Forecast for Monday
Showers. Moderate to fresh and gusty south to southeast winds, strong near the coast. Dangerous surf conditions.
Lismore: Showers. Windy. Min: 18 Max: 26
Cape Byron: Showers. Windy. Min: 22 Max: 25
Grafton: Showers. Min: 19 Max: 27
Forecast for Tuesday
Scattered showers. Moderate to fresh southeast winds, stronger near the coast.
Lismore: Few showers. Min: 19 Max: 25
Forecast for Wednesday
Scattered showers. Southeast winds, fresh to strong on the coast.
Lismore: Few showers. Min: 19 Max: 27
Forecast for Thursday
Scattered showers. Southeast winds, fresh to strong on the coast.
Lismore: Few showers. Min: 19 Max: 26
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http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_...IDCODE=IDY00050
Intense squally showers has developed hitting the coast and had it few mins ago with extreme gusts around 75km/hr with some moderate falls. It pretty much like a cyclonic conditions. Beaches are now closed, NYE fireworks are now cancelled. This conditions still continuing over next 48hours or more, next system coming in by Friday with stronger low/possible cyclone.
Hence the monsoon became active overnight, warning from Darwin:
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Locally Destructive Winds, Widespread Damaging Winds, Heavy Rainfall,
Abnormally High Tides and Large Waves
for people in the eastern Top End and northern Darwin-Daly district.
Issued at 11:00 am CST Sunday 30 December 2007
Synoptic Situation: At 10am CST, an active monsoon trough lies across the
northern Top End with a developing, slow moving low centred near Jabiru.
Locally destructive wind gusts to 120 km/h are possible with thunderstorms over
the northern Darwin-Daly district and eastern Top End this afternoon and
evening. Widespread damaging wind gusts up to 90 km/h, large waves and
abnormally high tides are expected along the north coast between Cape Don and
Nhulunbuy today and tomorrow morning. Heavy monsoonal rain currently falling
across the eastern Top End and northern Darwin-Daly district is expected to
cause significant stream rises with possible flooding of low-lying areas.
The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose
outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving
conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses. Abnormally
high tides could cause minor flooding at the coast.
The next warning is due to be issued by 5:00 pm Sunday.
Next squally showers coming in very soon.
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Priority
NSW SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
Damaging Surf
For people in
Northern Rivers
Issued at 4:15 pm on Saturday 29 December 2007
Synoptic Situation: 3:00 pm EDT Saturday
A low pressure system with a central pressure of 996 hPa is currently located about 420 kilometres northeast of Sandy Cape on Fraser Island. The low may deepen a little while remaining near stationary for the next 24 hours. The low will then drift slowly to the northwest.
Damaging surf conditions are expected on Sunday on the far North Coast between Tweed Heads and Wooli, with waves expected to exceed 5 metres in the surf zone and are likely to cause significant beach erosion.
Warnings
Strong Wind Warning north of Wooli and South of Ulladulla.
Severe Weather Warning for Damaging Surf Conditions Far North Coastal Waters for Sunday.
Synoptic Situation
A low in the Coral Sea extends a trough southwards to the waters off the northern New South Wales coast. The low is expected to intensify over the weekend, producing strong southeasterly winds from overnight over far northern New South Wales waters, increasing to Gale force Sunday/Monday. An increasing E swell is also expected to affect far northern waters over the weekend. A high pressure system, located near New Zealand, extends a ridge over the remaining New South Wales waters.
Far North Coastal Waters, Point Danger to Wooli and 60nm seawards:
Strong to Gale Force Wind Warning. Severe Weather Warning.
Saturday until midnight: Wind: SE 25/33 knots north of Cape Byron. Increasing to SE 20/30 knots south of Cape Byron. Sea: 3 to 4 metres in the north, 2 to 3 metres in the south. Swell: E 2.5 to 3.5 metres. Dangerous surf conditions.
Sunday: Wind: North of Cape Byron: SE 25/33 knots, reaching 35/40 knots offshore.
South of Cape Byron: 20/30 knots. Sea: 3 to 4 metres in north, 2 to 3 metres in south. Swell: E 3 to 4 metres. Dangerous surf conditions. Refer severe weather warning.
Monday Outlook: Wind: SE 25/35 knots, possibly reaching 35/40 knots.
Tuesday Outlook: Wind: SE 25/35 knots, decreasing
Forecast for Saturday evening
Scattered showers. Fresh south to southeast winds, fresh to strong on the coast in the north. Dangerous surf conditions developing.
Forecast for Sunday
Scattered showers. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds, increasing to strong near the coast in the afternoon. Damaging surf conditions.
Lismore: Showers. Min: 19 Max: 26
Cape Byron: Showers. Windy. Min: 22 Max: 25
Grafton: Showers. Min: 20 Max: 28
Forecast for Monday
Rain periods. Fresh east to southeast winds, strong along the coast.
Lismore: Rain, windy at times. Min: 21 Max: 25
Forecast for Tuesday
Scattered showers. Southeast winds, fresh to strong along the coast.
Lismore: Few showers. Min: 20 Max: 27
Forecast for Wednesday
Scattered showers. Southeast winds, fresh to strong on the coast.
Lismore: Few showers. Min: 19 Max: 26
Current Weather Situation and Future Developments:
A deepening low over the Coral Sea will bring showers, strong southeasterly winds and heavy easterly swells along the far north coast of New South Wales for the next few days. The low is expected to move slowly northwest during Sunday and Monday. The remainder of the state will be under influence of a high pressure ridge from a high near New Zealand. On Wednesday the ridge should weaken as a trough develops over the inland parts of the state.
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Winds has picking up but not much rain yet, most of clouds moving away from coast but theres alot of cu coming in from coast, not sure what this doing compared to our newspaper article referring a severe weather event.
Brace for a wetn wild weekend
29.12.2007
A WEEKEND of wild weather has been predicted for the Northern Rivers, with a tropical low creating bouts of torrential rain, strong winds and huge waves.
Strong south-easterly coastal winds could create five-metre high waves and beach erosion was likely, the State Emergency Service said.
A powerful east-to south-easterly swell was also expected to accompany the winds, which are expected to peak on Sunday.
It looks like a pretty lousy New Years Eve for people up on the North Coast. Itll be an indoor celebration I think, SES spokesman Phil Campbell said. Itll be pretty wet and windy otherwise.
Some beaches may close and holiday-makers are advised to stay out of the water, Surf Life Saving Australia said.
Mr Campbell urged campers not to set up near water courses, to check river conditions regularly and not drive or walk through flood waters given the expected rain. AAP
http://www.northernstar.com.au/localnews/s...condsubsection=
Looks like EC predicting the GOC cyclone going SE parallel QLD coast all the way to N NSW coast as category 5 status!
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Cyclone expected to form on Saturday afternoon, wishful rain tending to flooding and unexpectly going to see some high winds during the weekend into next week. First Severe Weather Warning had issue for Southeast coast of QLD.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Abnormally High Tides/Dangerous Surf
For people in Offshore Islands south of Rockhampton including The Capricorn and
Bunker Groups, Fraser Island and the Sunshine Coast.
Issued at 10:35 am on Thursday 27 December 2007
Synoptic Situation: A tropical low is developing in the Coral Sea and is
expected to be located about 550km Northeast of Yeppoon early Friday.
Very large waves are expected to be generated by this system and are expected to affect areas north from Fraser Island and the Sunshine Coast on Saturday and extend down to Coolangatta Tweed Heads by Sunday. The winds and waves will cause abnormally high tides which should exceed the highest tides of the year.
PRIORITY
Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For waters from Bowen to Point Danger including Hervey Bay and Moreton Bay.
Issued at 11:20 am EST on Thursday 27 December 2007
Synoptic Situation
A 1022 hpa high in the central Tasman Sea is moving slowly eastwards and extends a firm ridge along the southern and central coast of Qld. A surface trough near Cairns extends east across the Coral Sea to a developing low near 21S 154E. The low is expected to move SE during the next 36 hours and gradually deepen.
Strong Wind/Gale Warning
Bowen to Point Danger including Hervey/Moreton Bays
SE winds at 20/30 knots between Bowen to Double Island Point for today to extend to Point Danger by Friday night. SE winds to 30/40 knot winds will develop offshore between St Lawrence to Sandy Cape overnight and extend south to Double Island Point during Friday. Seas to 2.5 to 3 metres in open waters rising to 3.5 metres within the Gale zone. A 2 metre E to SE swell rising to 3 to 4 metres overnight and into tomorrow.
Gales expected to reach northern New South Wales during tomorrow or Saturday.
Had few bursts of showers here this morning, scored 17mm so far since 9am. It pretty much like start of event to me.
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Oh dear, now going for potentially cyclone!
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
The high over the Tasman Sea will continue to move eastwards while slowly
weakening. The upper trough over the south-west of the state will move eastwards
and move mostly off the coast on Friday. From late Thursday onwards the upper
trough will amplify and induce a low at the surface off the central coast of
Qld. This low will then move slowly southwards during the weekend while
deepening and could potentially develop into a cyclone.
The upper trough will clear the cloud and rain to the north-east during Thursday
and Friday. A weak monsoon trough will develop over northern Queensland later in
the week bringing with it showers, thunderstorms and rain areas for the northern
tropics.
As the low develops on Thursday strong winds will initially occur on the coast
between about Bowen and Sandy Cape with offshore gales developing for mariners
about the Capricornia. However, as the surface low deepens and moves southwards,
the strong/gale winds will reorganize and by late Friday become confined to the
coast between about Bowen and Point Danger by evening. During Saturday the
strong winds will eventually occur south of St Lawrence with gales extending
further south to about SE coast. Along with the increasing winds, there is the
likelihood of increasing swells along coastal areas with very dangerous
conditions along the beaches with some erosion and high water levels along with
unfavourable conditions for boating.
In terms of weather for the weekend, showers will be mostly confined to coastal
and adjacent inland areas in the east and southeast with continual showers and
thunderstorms about the northern tropics.
From NSW BoM
Severe weather expected north of Coffs Harbour on Sunday from approaching deep low or tropical cyclone (soon to be named). Expecting severe gales, high tides, severe erosion, damaging surf, flash flooding and widespread shallow flooding north of Yamba. Conditions like this can cause major damage to cities and towns across north coastal region. Confidence: MODERATE
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OMG guys the stormcast is incredible, severe gales copping the coast by late Sunday and early Monday next week!
http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast.htm...r_850#stormcast
Beautiful eye of storm offshore bringing insane winds and severe high tides to coast especially flooding rain areas and squally thunderstorms. GFS is still holding it! EC is even scarier now...........
Whats next?
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On Sunrise this morning they mentioned a cyclone is developing for S QLD and N NSW. Looks like windshear going nuts by stormcast!
http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast.htm...r_850#stormcast
And next day looking like an eye of cyclone!
http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast.htm...r_850#stormcast
GFS plotted a nasty system developing where this is going to be forming, its located on MT and its gaining strength against winds and moisture flow from Pacific.
Looks like a New Year cyclone to me!
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GFS has been hinted for last few days, showing massive monsoonal like falls along east coast of S QLD and N NSW.
http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?regi...us&days=7.5
Yesterday afternoon, no one has noticed saw the rotating in the subcontential convergence in CS, once it is now very clearly visible on satellite.
Here: http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat.html?...=&stop=#nav
Looks like going to be a nasty system for new year period ahead. GFS models showing it going near the coast with severe winds and flooding rains (hence the large amount of rain and tight isobars.
EC model showing the hint of landfall in SEQLD and NE NSW in period while another one in WA aswell at same time!
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...!!step/
I think this is the start of actual storm cyclone season for Australia.
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27 storms so far this season according the my data base. Over 70mm of rain for December and still counting from this rain event developing this arvo with some heavy falls and strong wind gusts. Scattered showers forecasted for the Christmas and New Year period. Gotta be wet January coming up! Bring it on 2008 rains!
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Showers and thunderstorms in afternoon/evening, very warm to hot and humid with northeast winds.
Lismore: 32
Ballina: 31
However, severe windshear at mid to low levels may lead to damaging winds around 65knots across northeast corner today. Small hail are likely but not be expected to be large due to warmer levels in mid and upper. Rainfalls will be fairly heavy due to high moisture. Possibility of supercells at 50%.
GFS predicted 55mm + for us today from storms, hopefully it will! Really much need rain for a day. Sparking hot now.
Monsoon is onsetting during tomorrow or Tuesday across Nth Australia due to satellite saturation.
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Excellent gusty storms and monsoonal showers since the 8th! Over 29mm from monsoonal showers last night sums up 67mm for December rainfall. Bring it sum more right now!
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Great lightning show early this morning but miss the main rain part, Lismore got 23mm also Casino aswell.
More to come today!
Saturday: Showers developing this early afternoon with severe thunderstorms increasing. Possible squalls, hail and flash flooding. Northeast winds, very warm to hot and humid.
Lismore: 30
Ballina: 30
Bring it on rainfalls please!
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Very large storm front coming up towards Northern Rivers now with severe cells with hail, winds and flooding. Looks like its getting larger compared the huge core near Coffs!
Radar: http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR282.l...range=true#skip
Bloody awesome! Looks enormous! Bring it on monsoonal like rains!
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Few showers and storms active on radar atm and they seems coming this way, its only early in morning! Its so hot and sticky, very cloudy out there. Forecasted locally heavy falls and damaging winds, slight of hail today, looking good on instability levels aswell. Might get more than one storms today, some may be supercells due to favourable conditions. Since yesterday, the activity has been started from southwest very well.
Bring it on storms!
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Today is day one of supercell outbreak no. 3! This is getting insane! Lifted index dropped to -5 to -7 over ne nsw with deep CAPE of 2100kg/j! Windshear has been improving by the radar and doppler this morning, heeps better than yesterday. Looks like the storms will be like in October including hailstorms and F1 tornado. Temperature today is 30 degrees at good humidity and dewpoint, gonna be humid and muggy one today. Following by 21 degrees min tonight.
Bring it on day 1!
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Now its time for very hot and humid stormy days with great start of December! Temperatures getting tropical here now and humidity increased. Had heavy showers yesterday and scored isolated 15mm here at north Lismore and Ballina scored 4.5mm. City of Lismore had 7mm at Smith Street. Nice shower coming in now and they seems getting widespread now and slow moving. Winds now getting picking up. Must be developing gusty storm!
LISMORE CITY Developing showers and scattering thunderstorms locally, severe convection north of city under warm and cold pool temperature MAY DEVELOP A GUSTY STORM. POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 100KM/HR, HAIL UP TO 2CM AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALLS.Bring it on storms!
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Nice showers here lately and its looking very nice for next few days for new weather system. ECL may form off the coast near Fraser Island and it seems bringing gales and flooding rain for seqld and nensw. Looks like December rainfall continuing into over average again since August! Temperatures been relatively warm and humid of subtropical summer climate conditions, BUT its going to get hotter next week where temps reachong 30's in day and 20's at night!
Bring it on summer 2007/8!
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Looking scary up here now, mean skies and its terrible dark and ugly looks. Looks like going to storm here sooner or later! Its very hot and sticky under 95% cloud cover! Min was 19.5 and now its 27C. Dewpoint is over 22C and humidity at 78%.
Bring it on storms!
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STW is out
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for FLASH FLOODING, LARGE HAILSTONES and DAMAGING WIND
For people in the MID NORTH COAST, NORTHERN TABLELANDS and parts of the NORTHERN RIVERS, HUNTER and NORTH WEST SLOPES Forecast Districts.
Issued at 3:37 pm Friday, 23 November 2007.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall, flash flooding, large hailstones and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Port Macquarie, Taree, Scone, Maitland, Armidale and Tenterfield.
Good looking storms heading towards the coastline especially the others from northeast aswell combining towards the west! Scattered showers and storms all night and tomorrow for again. Bring it on heavy falls!
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Hey mac, Darwin's cape and li is similar to here on eastern coast of australia.
Today, storms may be more severe due to damaging winds, flash flooding and hail from this low pressure system adjac with cold pool air from west. Last night we had 3.4mm which is not enough, today will be much more due to stronger cape.
Bring it on!
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Looks like they are back since early November and October. Going in for severe storms today and tomorrow by convective outlook. The dewpoints are crazy hot and sticky, its 22.7/21.0 95% Feels Like 25.6 here now at 8am. Min was 19.7 last night and max today going for 27 degrees.
A real chance of storms are heavy rain, hail and damaging winds. Windshear problem will ease during today.
Bring it on storms!
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Huge confusion about TC Guba, on news they said it has hit the coast while BoM showing its hasnt hit the coast and moving NE???? I am confused now! Nice further convection flaring up in Coral Sea.
Here, showers and storms are back! Nice warmer mins and maxs lately, its getting very muggy and sticky. Nice showers forming around us atm, hopefully to regain montly rainfall and more storms photography!
Bring it on!
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Looks like a cyclone is forming today in Coral Sea, not sure it may affect our weather bu the forecasts showing it affecting our weather as increase showery and windy conditions. Winds are sitting at NE to SE all this week, which is a hint of larger event, possible cyclone. I say 20% sure about this but the ridge along QLD coast is weakening! This helping the development of cyclone and tracking.
No more natural disaster please, we just had two, not three or more.
Sunny today at max 27 degrees and min this morning was 5 degrees below average 12 degrees.
Australia severe weather 2007/8 season
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/ir_sat.html?r...=&stop=#nav
Satellite looking great now, bring alot of squally showers to n nsw coast this morning, perhaps the low seems moving west instead northwest as forecast overnight. It helped the rainbands to cross the coast with strong to gale forces winds under showers. Highest gust was Byron Bay reached 98km/hr (roughly 53mph) at 5am this morning!
Looks like we directly under the rainbands since, going to get windier as i going back to Ballina very soon. Bring it on 2008 rains and storms!
Storms bring risky swells
31.12.2007
By Andy Parks andy.parks@northernstar.com.au WINDS gusting up to 82 kilometres an hour lashed the coast over the weekend, bringing down trees and in some areas causing extensive blackouts.
The high winds and huge seas were the result of a low pressure system off the Queensland coast. A gale warning was issued by the Bureau of Meteorology from Point Danger to Cape Byron yesterday.
Up to 40,000 homes around Tweeds Heads were without power yesterday for more than an hour after a tree landed on powerlines near the Tweed Heads substation.
Trees were reported to be down across roads at Brunswick Heads and Kyogle.
Northern NSW Lifeguard co-ordinator, Stephen Leahy, said it was a busy weekend for his teams.
A man had to be rescued in high seas near Yamba after he went missing in the surf. The rescue involved the police and the Westpac Rescue helicopter as well as the lifeguard service.
Mr Leahy also said there were two other rescues in the Yamba area and four around Byron Bay yesterday.
Two bodyboarders were washed up on rocks and had to be given first aid at The Pass at Byron Bay on Saturday.
Lifeguards also had to assist more than 200 tourists to climb off the lookout at The Pass in Byron Bay yesterday, he said.
The Northern Stars surfing columnist, Phil Roxburgh, said the conditions would be unsuitable for surfers for at least a few more days.
The trouble with a low like this is that its too close. There is too much sweep and everything is full of white water, he said. Were expecting swells of over two metres for the next week.
The strong wind warnings and predictions of damaging surf conditions didnt keep Travis Templer and his girlfriend Natalie Siiankoski out of the water at Lennox Point on Saturday.
I didnt check the forecast today but I knew there was a cyclone building off the coast. I didnt know how far down it would reach, but when I was out there I knew this wasnt for me, Mr Templer said.
There were some older guys out there having a ball, but theyve probably surfed this point since Jesus was playing footy for Jerusalem.
Mr Templer, who is down from the Gold Coast on holiday, said he had only taken up surfing again six weeks ago. I was probably out there an hour and only caught one wave. I had to pull out about 10 times going this is not for me. It was just too rough and unpredictable.
Ms Siiankoski has surfed for a couple of years, but it wasnt her day either.
I just couldnt get out the back. There were too many sets coming in. I was trying to get out when this big shore break washed me up on to the rocks, she said.
She had cuts on her upper thigh and was happy to spend the rest of the day out of the water.
Australian Lifeguard Services issued more than 1500 warnings to people swimming in dangerous locations over the weekend and is advising that people should only swim at beaches where lifeguards are on duty.
They also suggest people avoid entering the water until it is deemed safe to do so and to stay away from rock ledges and shelves.
http://www.northernstar.com.au/localnews/s...condsubsection=
Well Byron Bay already had up to 98km/hr hour without storm force warning! It forecasted for 35knots but nothing expected for gale to storm at all, BoM will NOT going to issue that because they did not notice it or ignoring it unpredictable weather across Northern Rivers.