thestixx
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Posts posted by thestixx
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Was 16°C and humid when leaving the house at 4:30am. Felt lovely! Now at a deserted T1 at Manchester Airport...
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Rumbles of thunder in the distance over Bradford... Hoping one passes overhead for the first storm of 2020 round here
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No storms in here in Bradford all week, I could see the might of a Supercell over the Pennines on Tuesday though... It's been absolutely miserable all day here too. Dank & drizzly.. roll on Saturday and a week of
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9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
My take on the 12Z runs...
I'm starting to get worried that we may fall into the Scandi High / Azores High "death trough" scenario. This is where pressure is high to the west, pressure is high to the east, and consequently low pressures get squeezed in the middle, and that tiny spot (on a global scale) gets plagued with low after low, slow moving because it is boxed in on all sides, while all around experiences the joys of summer.
A few days ago, it looked possible we would get just on the right side, but the ECM and UKMO increasing have this slack point nearer to the UK, even in the ECM ensembles tonight.
You have to be so unlucky to get into this spot, but it does often seem to be the UK, and there's a danger we will be in that place for a while with the current prognosis for Europe. A week or two of summer can easily be lost to this pattern.
Summer lovers need to hope the GFS is right in pulling the low west. The GFS is rarely completely right, but it's rarely completely wrong, just a small tug away from the UK is needed, there's still time for Sunday onwards to bring out the BBQ weather
If we hadn't just had THEE sunniest spring on record I'd be gutted, but the inevitability of this happening after such a prolonged settled period is to be expected. Summer will definitely visit the UK, there's such an abundance of high pressure kicking about at northern latitudes it will eventually sit favourably again, in the meantime, I'm happy for all the farmers & growers out there.
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Here in West Yorkshire, other than last week which was cool & cloudy, this has been the best spring I've witnessed in my life. The dry summers of 2003/2006 felt like the current pattern,where once HP became established, even though I remember the models at the time showing breakdowns, you just knew HP was gonna stick around... It wasn't always favourable in location (for heat) but it was definitely in an abundance around our latitude...
I read the Accuweather summer forecast today and it doesn't sound like they expect this lengthy settled spell to last that long which I hope is wrong tbh... I'm hoping the reduction in global pollution makes the Azores our friend fot at least the next couple of months!
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32 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
happened last few summers, warm spike timed for Tue/Wed, then cooler, then warm spike due again around Tues
same as northerly topplers, timed for Fri or Sat, topple Sun/Mon
We had a Yorkshire Tuesday night with an 11pm temp of 25°C. I was sat outside just enjoying the scarcity of it.
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On 02/05/2020 at 20:10, mb018538 said:
ECM is swinging wildly from run to run, as are most of the models to be honest. Very tough to say what will happen into next weekend and beyond.
Fwiw, I've been lurking on here since '03 unofficially, '06 officially.... There's a lot of high pressure about and it's currently the dominant force, I think it's gonna be a big player for the foreseeable!.. April was a pretty special month for sun & blue skies and the models are still showing an abundance of it..Have faith!
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On 29/04/2020 at 19:31, Zak M said:
By the looks of it... the ECM joins in!!
If that cold spell was to happen, am I right in thinking it could be very damaging to crops? I remember my parents always worried about frosts once the fruit trees had blossomed?
The recent spell of settled weather showed a breakdown to northwestern blocking but it didn't materialise, let's hope it doesn't this time either (although it's looking ominous)
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11 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:
The ECM 0z operational shows high pressure building in strongly during the course of next week and gradually warming up...this would be a very good result..baby steps to a return to glorious sunny days!
Lockdown with two kids without sunshine is bloody hard! I saw early May being touted for this a while back... Fingers crossed
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12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
This looks tasty. Very very tasty!
OH MY WORD!!! I've been avoiding the charts for a few weeks as I couldn't bare looking at the outlook! A scandi high will be just the tonic for the farmers ( and us)
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9 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:
Make the most of today which should be a decent day, some lively weather to come with heavy (perhaps thundery) showers for the rest of the week. One thing to note that even when pressure rises, it is a weak affair do showers could still be present along with the risk of mist/low cloud for eastern coasts if the predicted NE wind sets in.
need to watch for an early taste of autumn later on with an Atlantic ridge/Scandinavia trough setting up which could deliver a rather cool northerly. Still a long way off and the blocking could behave very differently.
Joe Basta rdi was suggesting the cool pool over Russia would be sufficient to cause another potential plume event here with another trough over the Atlantic... Although the price we're now paying for that last event is thoroughly depressing.
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Can't believe how slack the pattern is on this at day 10, I've never seen such a benign chart.
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50 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:
Huddersfield got a new all time record of 34.2 astounding for up here
Looks like the Lancashire got all the action this afternoon, looks like the storms heading over the channel and up through London will head this side of the Pennines.... Fingers crossed anyway. 33.7 in Cleckheaton today. Was gorgeous!
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43 minutes ago, Onding said:
Hallelujah. The severe bit appears to be slap bang over me in West Yorkshire.... Bring It On!
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39.7 in Gravesend
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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
The heat reserved for the SE at 144 but still warm elsewhere -
EPIC EC det...
Very fine margins tho'!!
This would be a very welcome 'breakdown' for the weekend... Still pleasantly warm... How many fronts will be associated with that low though?
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9 minutes ago, Singularity said:
The trouble is, we have a potential major heatwave that depends heavily on the behaviour of one unusually vigorous trough Mon-Tue next week.
Whatever it does, will strongly drive the weather one way or the other.
If a low digs south on the southern flank, the jet aligns south to north and the trough drives such strong amplification of the pattern that the resulting heatwave is more likely than not to have substantial duration, at least across W. Europe (the UK always has troubling caveats!).
If that doesn't happen, the jet aligns southwest to northeast, or even more toward west to east, and the heat gets shunted away from the UK within a couple of days and W. Europe generally within another day or two.
The critical period is now at 5-6 days range. We should know which way it's going to go by Friday evening. Brace yourselves - it could be a very bumpy ride
It's the start of the school summer holidays so I'd definitely back your latter summation!
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34 minutes ago, knocker said:
Current satellite
We'd be better off with a South Westerly than an anticyclone that's basically a mass of swirling cloud! Can't believe how poor the outlook is today and tomorrow with a high sat right over us! The devil is always in the detail isn't it.
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The output could be much much worse, here near the penninesit's been pretty decent since the awful start to June. Thenk the lord theJet isn't parked over us this summer!
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5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
Not a great end to the ECM and unfortunately I think that's the likely outcome after next week as the Scandinavian trough intensifies and heights start to build over Greenland.
BBC weather for the week makes the same assertion. The high just never creeps in enough!
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40 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:
A strong surface easterly wind later this coming week keeping the temps lower and I suppose the ground temps are not warm after what we`ve endured so far this month which has been relentless for copious amounts of cool rains,may well be all factoring in the lower temps.
Countryfile forecast shows the high toppling over from the northeast and seriously suppressing the temps. Glastonbury looks like THE hottest place to be.. lucky for them
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40 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:
Well looking at GFS 18z I feel we've all been teased and lured down the usual path only to be whacked across the face and laughed at. Next week still looks warm and thundery but not as extreme as they were showing, 32C in the SE at most and low to mid 20s elsewhere, Really hoping its just an outlier and things start catching on again tomorrow.
It's been great seeing the possible extremes though hasn't it.
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2 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:
I have a little feeling this will upgrade further and further with models turning it into something very extreme, something UK hasn't seen before and something that will get the weather experts re-writing their books.. The models must've did this with the Aug 2003 heatwave, just upgrading it run by run until it became the killer heatwave its known for.. but that was 16 years ago and climate is forever changing at fast pace. Most summers we see big heat constantly being shunted East, maybe this time round we just got lucky.
Yet Paul Hudson on BBC weather just said there'll be a breakdown from Sunday night. Weird
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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
120 UKMO looks very unstable, 144 looks to be settling down nicely..
Realistically, what would aid that low in staying south and west? A strong high? Or would the coreolis effect eventually push it over us?
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Model output discussion - into July 2020
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I'm heading to Pembrokeshire camping Friday to Monday