thestixx
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38 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:
Word of warning gang, there is some absolute filth indicated for late June on the GEFS 6z in terms of unseasonably cool and unsettled but in amongst the dross there are some very summery members too, anyway, that's just my unbiased agenda free opinion!
Just in time for Glastonbury. Therefore it's bound to go tits up.
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11 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:
EWP starts in 1766. This is a list of all cases you mentioned, ranked by June EWP, plus in italics any that were close (wetter than 95 mm and cooler than 14.0). The July and August CET and EWP values are listed for each. The warmest month of each summer is highlighted in red. Of the 35 Junes with more than 100 mm, only twelve were excluded on the basis of being too warm. Of the six Junes 95-99.9 mm, three were excluded. The next two, not in this list (1954 and 1968) produced the next excluded June (1968 was 14.8, in 43rd position). So that made 27/43 of the wettest Junes cooler than 14.1 C. Another eight were cooler than the current June normal of 14.5 C (so a total of 35/43 wet Junes were below normal by modern standards, and June has not been changing as fast as most months either, its warmest 30-year average came in 1822-51.).
Analysis follows the lists.
Wet Junes that had CET values below 14.1 C.
YEAR ____ June CET, EWP ______July CET, EWP___Aug CET, EWP
2012 ______ 13.5 __160.1 _______ 15.5 __120.7 ____ 16.6 __ 94.2
1860 ______ 12.3 __157.1 _______ 14.5 __ 65.2 ____ 13.6 __148.5
1768 ______ 13.9 __148.7 _______ 15.6 __121.9 ____ 16.0 __ 91.6
1879 ______ 12.9 __139.3 _______ 13.6 __121.4 ____ 14.5 __148.5
1797 ______ 13.6 __134.9 _______ 17.3 __ 79.4 ____ 15.8 __ 114.8
1852 ______ 13.2 __134.1 _______ 18.7 __ 68.0 ____ 15.8 __ 134.9
1830 ______ 12.7 __128.9 _______ 16.2 __ 94.0 ____ 13.7 __ 98.2
1789 ______ 14.0 __128.0 _______ 15.4 __128.0 ____ 16.6 __ 39.6
1980 ______ 13.8 __123.3 _______ 14.7 __ 75.8 ____ 15.9 __ 88.9
1769 ______ 13.1 __122.8 _______ 16.4 __ 56.9 ____ 15.0 __ 98.8
1912 ______ 13.9 __122.4 _______ 16.1 __ 94.4 ____ 12.9 __192.9
1784 ______ 13.7 __120.1 _______ 15.2 __ 98.6 ____ 14.0 __ 74.8
1770 ______ 13.1 __118.1 _______ 15.3 __ 63.0 ____ 15.8 __ 52.6
1971 ______ 12.4 __110.7 _______ 16.9 __ 44.4 ____ 15.6 __111.6
1863 ______ 13.6 __109.4 _______ 15.2 __ 29.3 ____ 15.5 __ 91.0
1766 ______ 13.7 __109.2 _______ 15.7 __101.7 ____ 16.6 __ 38.1
1987 ______ 12.8 __109.1 _______ 15.9 __ 73.2 ____ 15.6 __ 68.7
1882 ______ 13.1 __104.7 _______ 15.2 __113.1 ____ 14.9 __ 85.0
1777 ______ 13.6 __103.9 _______ 15.3 __116.6 ____ 15.9 __ 70.2
1991 ______ 12.1 __103.0 _______ 17.3 __ 70.7 ____ 17.1 __ 27.8
1795 ______ 13.2 __101.8 _______ 15.2 __ 53.5 ____ 16.6 __ 82.0
1985 ______ 12.7 __101.7 _______ 16.2 __ 77.2 ____ 14.6 __ 114.1
1927 ______ 12.6 __ 101.3 _______ 15.9 __ 96.0 ____ 15.7 __139.5
1928 ______ 12.9 ___ 97.0 _______ 16.1 __ 60.3 ____ 15.3 __ 95.2
1824 ______ 13.4 ___ 96.3 _______ 16.0 __ 47.0 ____ 15.1 __ 74.5
1812 ______ 13.0 ___ 95.4 _______ 14.2 __ 75.4 ____ 14.3 __ 54.6
=============================================================
warmer than 14.0
2007 ______ 15.1 __144.9 _______ 15.2 __137.9 ____ 15.4 __ 60.7
1848 ______ 14.5 __141.5 _______ 15.6 __ 85.1 ____ 13.6 __117.7
1997 ______ 14.1 __132.2 _______ 16.7 __ 53.5 ____ 18.9 __ 98.9
1982 ______ 15.5 __129.1 _______ 16.5 __ 33.9 _____ 15.7 __ 87.9
1998 ______ 14.2 __121.4 _______ 15.5 __ 54.4 ____ 15.9 __ 48.7
1839 ______ 14.3 __114.9 _______ 14.9 __152.9 ____ 14.6 __ 83.4
2016 ______ 15.2 __114.0 _______ 16.9 __ 43.6 ____ 17.0 __ 67.5
1838 ______ 14.4 __112.9 _______ 15.6 __ 68.1 ____ 15.1 __ 80.8
1958 ______ 14.1 __110.9 _______ 15.9 __ 95.7 ____ 15.8 __102.9
1833 ______ 14.6 __107.9 _______ 15.8 __ 47.8 ____ 14.3 __ 59.1
1829 ______ 14.9 __103.3 _______ 15.1 __143.7 ____ 14.3 __149.3
1872 ______ 14.1 __ 100.0 _______ 17.1 __122.9 ____ 15.3 __ 80.8
1853 ______ 14.3 ___ 99.5 _______ 14.9 __110.0 ____ 14.7 __ 79.8
1936 ______ 14.7 ___ 99.5 _______ 15.3 __138.0 ____ 16.1 __ 28.4
1935 ______ 15.1 ___ 96.2 _______ 17.1 __ 27.2 ____ 16.6 __ 65.1
================================================================
Analysis
In general it can be said that the cool, wet Junes are followed by rather cool and wet summers. Of the 26 years in the top list, only three managed to produce a month that averaged 17 or higher. Of the 15 that had a warmer start, still only four of those managed to reach 17 in either July or August.
In terms of sustained wetness, the median values for July and August in the top group were 76.5 mm and 91.3 mm, so the tendency is for the heavy rainfall to remain in the picture through July and return in almost the same full intensity in August. In the warmer set, the median values are somewhat higher in July (90.4 mm) and lower in August (80.8 mm) but those are not very significant differences.
The number of significantly dry months that follow the wet Junes is small. In the entire set of 41 cases above, only five have a July below 45 mm and only four have an August below 45 mm.
There are some fairly dire summers among those that follow a cool or even a warm but wet June, notably 1829, 1860, 1879 and 1912. There are very few good summers (the wet June of course reduces the chance that the summer might be considered good, but only 1852, 1935, 1982, 1991 and 1997 in these lists were generally regarded to be reasonably good summers.
The door is wide open for this year to produce a delayed three-month hot, dry spell (July to September) which has never followed a wet June in past cases.
The only year above to have two months (Jul-Aug) with less than 55 mm in each month was 1998.
Thanks for putting this together. It makes grim reading for the rest of summer!
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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Yes, great charts, but a bit optimistic I reckon, will be more westerly still good though, may even make dizzy heights of 20 degrees for NE Midlands
hope EC follows trend for big improvement
The new update debuts on tonight's 12z. Fingers crossed it continues the positive trends....
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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
I'm no expert but to me that looks unsettled apart from the far N / NW..
Spain & France taking a right battering too! At least we're not alone.
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16 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:
What a load of crap really We have been dealt with next week while the rest of Europe bathes lol its my feeling in a couple off days the models will. Pick up for settled warm weather but like I said last night FI to me is 5 days. Anything longer will change every run. This summer will be like 2019. That's all even you netweather have started quoting it in the summer forecast. Enso like this year. Mjo like that year etc. To me no matter what the background signals are the weather will do what it wants.(last winter) we had favorable signals for cold never happened. I think even the biggest beast of a computer won't predict 3 months weather. It's all guess work. Not every moment of weather is accounted for. So how do we no really what's happening in certain place at a certain time. We have billions millions of stations all over the world and satellites in space. But not every wind event. Drop of rain. Snow. Heat. Etc will ever be accounted for so how can we predict so far ahead. Its never going to happen in my life time. My dad always say wake up in the morning and look out the window. That's the forecast. So tomorrow il wake up and look out of the window and that's my prediction. Ps can you tell. I'm having a bad lol RANT Over.
There's been lots of high pressure around us this year, Azores, Scandinavian, Euro.... We'll hit the jackpot at some point.
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2 hours ago, Tamara said:
Thanks for your customary posting of the latest ensemble means and which is much appreciated by many I am sure - I know you provide these for the right intended reasons and without knowingly trying to create reaction from others or mislead anyone
As you know, from my point of view the diagnostic approach to the outlook has stayed consistent with pros and cons as to how the pattern may evolve beyond the unsettled phase next week. It continues to be a case of having valid reasons to suggest improvement beyond this time - mindful as previously stated in equal detail what could alter such an improvement.
The ensemble members can give a broad numerical modelling view, as a snapshot in time, of how each model perceives the signals influencing the synoptic pattern, but changes to these can occur over a period of days rather than necessarily from from one suite to another in a single day period. NWP can be prone to reversing trends as much as accelerating them based them on changing interpretations of signals - so the diagnostics prove highly useful in terms of trying to identify when such changes might happen and/or point to the likely outcome(s) within that given time.
I also think that the continuing reference to operational outputs, even less of a reliable snapshot of time for obvious reasons, is proving especially unhelpful in distorting perception (and not helping stabilise mood swings) according to the particular modus operandi of the poster on each occasion
As I see it, the GEFS has been a little progressive in terms of creating the impression of the pattern improving as soon as later next week and I think the potential advection of heat from the east has rather helped create this illusion as well in what has remained an unstable pattern surrounding the longwave trough. The real improvement chances have always been beyond this time - any heat equation injected into the unsettled pattern has always been an 'add-on' to create a little interest. But all the main model ensemble suites (ECM,GEFS and GEM) all point to this improvement beyond this to varying but quite reasonable degrees.
The VP200 tropical convection anomalies clearly show up the suppression phase over the Pacific and active phase in the Indian Ocean that is responsible for the step up in trade winds which is creating the La Nina-esque type pattern downstream to the Atlantic and European sector in the coming period - the distinct amplified Atlantic ridge and longwave trough response over the UK. Quite the change there from the sustained and robust array of westerly wind bursts associated with the recent convectively coupled kelvin wave progression through the Pacific earlier this month
The eastward progression of propagation of this activity, is on the slower side of the envelope. This is in contrast to the fast propagating CCKW related phase of tropical convection in recent weeks. Hence why it is unlikely that the trough solution will lift out properly until the supressed phase in the Pacific starts to fade out in advance of the convective zone proceeding through the Maritime region towards the West Pacific. This sequence changes the rossby wave response further downstream with the result that amplification responses also shift further downstream to assist pressure rises in the wake of the trough.at the same time as allowing the heights to the east to link up with this pressure rise and improve conditions.
Present estimates do not suggest this evolution advancing sufficiently till towards the mid month period - so the extended ensemble suite reflection of improvement are not too far away from the diagnostic guide. The timing of associated rises in angular momentum tendency, as the tropical signal propagates, also clearly coincide with both the tropical>extra tropical diagnostic and the extended ensemble suite suggestion
The caveat, as before, is that the tropical cycle retains some progression to allow that rise in momentum tendency - the diagnostic equally shows that any lack of verification of propagation implies a greater struggle to change the downstream pattern. Answers to that question however simply cannot be properly answered immediately, by anyone - and require a watching brief to check progress. On that basis, any gloomy prognostication bases on snapshot modelling is as counter intuitive and misleading as any, allegedly, over optimistic one.
Mindful of these cautions and caveats, which in truth once provided as balance and information to help the thread, should not thereafter require to be endlessly inserted and repeated with every post as means to try to ease the truly tiresome battles of attrition on this thread that persist, there nevertheless continues to be, at the very least, reasonable evidence to back an improvement towards, or by mid June. Especially as stated in recent posts the background to global relative momentum is set more favourably than other years at this specific time of seasonal change and should help the process of the trough lifting out in tandem with the shift in rossby wavelength re-configuring the pattern.
Thanks for your in depth analysis Tamara, one thing always comes to mind though, see your paragraph here: "
The VP200 tropical convection anomalies clearly show up the suppression phase over the Pacific and active phase in the Indian Ocean that is responsible for the step up in trade winds which is creating the La Nina-esque type pattern downstream to the Atlantic and European sector in the coming period - "
Pacific conditions are often quoted/attributed to being factors in the conditions here, but in turn, don't the conditions here affect what's happening there, like El Nino causing drought in Australia when causing the opposite in South America?
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Wow! Looking like a proper spell of settled anticyclonic weather is on its way, that low pressure west of Biscay would pump some seriously warm air our way! I bloody love synoptics like this in June!
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I remember the World Cup in Germany 2006, the spring had seen terrible weather and on June 1st...boom... A huge anticyclone plonked itself over Europe and I spent a month travelling round Germany under azure blue skies and blazing sun. It's looking like summer '19 will start with a similar aplomb (albeit an Azores high initially) hope we get a similar summer to that. Wasn't July '06 an absolute steamer too?
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14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
GFS raw charts for next Saturday not that far away from 80F - would surely be the latest that has ever happened by far - still, at this range, 20-24C probably the most sensible landing spot.
BBC county file weather for the week bullish about a wet and windy weekend.
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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Anyone wanting to see the lovely Gfs 6z operational charts..here you go.☺
Camping in Kettlewell with the kids will be much more enjoyable if these charts verify.
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On 08/07/2018 at 09:20, bluearmy said:
I just checked my calendar and it’s the 8th ............ the extended modelling on the eps is becoming consistently upper troughy headed into the last third of the month. Worst the further nw as per usual.
Just to reiterate my post. Not trying to point score whatsoever, but as I alluded to here, taking each model run as gospel is fruitless. @Tamara's detailed analysis throughout has backed a more settled outlook and without sticking her nose out, was confident there wouldn't be a breakdown as was modelled last week. It's often said in here that you should probably only look at the ops a couple of times a week and I'm firmly from that camp. This is a truly vintage summer and long may it continue.... It could easily be a record breaker for max temps, especially if the scandi/Azores link up sufficiently with a low to our SW.... Heat pump city, and there's a LOT of hear building down there
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Taking the outlook on a weekly basis, not run to run... We're absolutely locked in to the best period of anticyclonic weather I can remember in years. There's absolutely no way this settled weather is breaking down this month. Folks on here are literally looking ten days away for some huge trough to sit over us. Ain't gonna happen imo. Take a break from the models guys. This year is a vintage!
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On 03/07/2018 at 22:22, damianslaw said:
I said I wouldn't look at the models all week - alas failed.. but I've just been looking at jetstream profile forecasts only today, and well longer range (yes 10 days out), they show a resurgent jet eventually possibly ushering in a more atlantic feed, the precursor or trigger so to speak is the signal for a cut off low to our SW scrubbing out the azores high, this would allow a plume of southerly air ahead of it next week - with some very high temps with it, before a thundery breakdown, the jet then sinking south and we end up for the first time since early April on the colder side; cyclonic springs to mind, which would bring a major pattern change.
I'll be keeping an eye on the jetstream profile forecasts over the days ahead.
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28 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:
Just seen Gav P on youtube with Julys month ahead outlook and according to the models its HP all the way right out until months end. Even August is hinting of LP moving away to the west with heights building from the East.
Paul Hudson @paultheweatherman on Yorkshire weather said "It's high pressure till mid month, and probably all the way through July"
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19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Might be that this breakdown never really gains much traction, just a slight re-adjustment before high pressure starts to rebuild into July. We will see, but the clusters/anomalies & met update seem to favour this too.
6z op was a wet outlier with regards to the Biscay low, so something more akin tot eh UKMO/ECM solution should be favoured here.My mate's a farmer in near York and getting very worried for his crops. He's desperate for rain. An interlude of a few days wet stuff would please everyone I reckon, as long as the Azores keeps nosing in... Looks like that pattern is the form horse, for now.....
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1 hour ago, LoisE said:
Fair enough, but we've had a long, hard, cold winter.... I am going to sit in the sun with my factor 50 and have a few glasses of Viognier. YOLO I was in Spain last June and it was considerably hotter. The locals in these Mediterranean lands treat the sun and heat with respect. "Mad dogs and English men...... "
I'm currently in Tenerife and here in Adeje it's been warm & humid all week but cloudy one day, sunny the next. The locals have been saying it's been very strange weather for the last 6 weeks..... Rioja Blanco &€3 a bottle has been a pleasure though....
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20 hours ago, Alderc said:1 hour ago, phil nw. said:
Some quite dry and warm Summery weather looks likely over the next 10 days quite widely.
A look at the 5 and 10 day ECM mean 500hPa charts shows the jet shifting well north as the Azores high extends across the UK.
The London ens.
Looking particularly good rising temps,light winds and virtually dry for the the period.Very nice!
Summer charts like these are an absolute joy to view. I've lurked on here since '06; my appetite for anticyclonic summer weather was whetted in '03 when high pressure was so stubborn to shift... This current modelling appears to be showing what could be a vintage summer. Hoorah!
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15 hours ago, mb018538 said:
Sorry, but I disagree there. To me I don’t see an Azores high building in any time soon - I personally see a disturbance meandering it’s way towards us in the next 5 days, which will eventually lead to a more unsettled spell - though not greatly so - more or less a continuation of the last fortnight....more unsettled in the south, better in the north closer to higher pressure.
Your post was clearly reliant on one op run. I was asking about the longer term evolution. X
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This current pattern appears deadset on reloading high pressure from the Azores. To those far more technical in their knowledge than I, how do you see this current set up breaking down? Talk of the MJO and tropical forcing etc... Is the recent and current weather a direct influence from that?
In previous years, when the Azores and Scandinavian highs connect, we've had a toppler low diving over the UK that then becomes trapped between highs and leaving us in days even weeks of being stuck in a trough.
This year seems so different, the jet seemingly loving it's trip way up to the north, almost so much It's going to be fascinating seeing how it all breaks down.
Perhaps I'm a pessimist and can't imagine the prospect of a long anticyclonic dominated summer, but just maybe this year's shaping up to be just that!
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7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
I've seen much worse starts to summer than what the Ecm 12z shows..plenty more summery weather to come according to this..and an eventual end to the cool / murky north sea filth too when we lose the NE'ly / E'ly influence!
I totally agree, I've lurked on here for years and it's this time of year that we seem to be stuck in a rut, the Azores tantalising close at 6/7 days out but a trough parked over us or an active jet bringing low after low off the Atlantic. The jet seems to be enjoying itself way up North this year.... Long may it continue. Regardless of the IMBY weather conditions day to day, I'm loving the warm and sun potential each day brings, and is continuing to do so for the foreseeable...
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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:
ECMupgrading the high this evening on the 12z
It's the stuff of dreams for an avid warm sunny summer lover. To think most years a small ridge of HP here and there is a treat out in FI.... Long may it continue
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48 minutes ago, Singularity said:
Really starting to look like we'll do well out of a combination of enhanced subtropical ridging (last, but remarkably strong breath of La Nina influence?) and anomalously high heights across Scandinavia that appear tied to a combination of MJO forcing, the Arctic sea ice pattern and some particularly well-established blocking that can fend off the sluggish Atlantic.
Typically, such a pattern will be tested by early June as the thermal gradient between the continent and N. Atlantic increases further, giving the jet a bit more oomph. Sometimes, though, that stronger jet just gets sent north of the ridging and can actually reinforce it further - but the question then becomes how far north the ridge is when that happens, as it takes on a flatter, west-east orientation. Recent GFS runs have been exploring outcomes that keep the ridging unusually far north, with interesting results as heat to the east wafts across. For what it's worth, I expect the 2 m temps these runs show are likely being underestimated by a number of degrees.
Absolutely dream charts as a summer lover. Would you say this current Azores/Scandinavian high link up pattern is reminiscent of (dare I say it) '76?
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7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:
Great to see high pressure making a fairly quick return on the 18z
GFS 0z shows the Azores swiftly moving in to replace the scani high..... Wouldn't it be lovely to see this pattern keep repeating for say, 6 months ?.....How I dream of a long, dry summer like '03 again.
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13 minutes ago, Light Without Heat said:
Bit of a weird one seems to get so far then fizzle out - decaying occluded maybe ?Seems not too bad out West Yorkshire if anyone can confirm
Not snowed in Kirklees, Bd19 all afternoon. Been cloudy though.
14 minutes ago, Light Without Heat said:Bit of a weird one seems to get so far then fizzle out - decaying occluded maybe ?Seems not too bad out West Yorkshire if anyone can confirm
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
It's an absoluteley incredible chart! we're talking about roads melting, rail tracks buckling! I don't beleive it will verify though until it's been plastered on the Express fromt page.