cyclonic happiness
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Posts posted by cyclonic happiness
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In a way it would be good to have another frost-less winter, but the implications for pests and diseases on plants has been horrific this summer, so another year without frosts to kill aphids off and such, would be terrible for the horticultural industry.
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It seems inevitable that the models will back away from a solution only to show it again a few days down the line. We've seen that dozens of times.
But, I'd rather we reset the pattern and then waited until there was actually some cold air to tap in to.
The easterly shown until now, was sucking up some stupidly warm air, even if it'd happened, there would have maybe been frost at best.
For what it's worth, the polar vortex still isn't organised, even right out in FI.
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Wow! Look at the amount of snow cover compared! I really hope we can pull off a decent winter this year, or I might start believing in global warming again :-D
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There's a real feeling of the 00s excitement on this board today. Even I'm peeing myself looking at the potential.
I think it's going to be a slow burner until we get the first snows though in lowland Britain, but there looks like there could be lots of surface cold and frost to play with even if we haven't imported the 'deep cold' (looking at today's outputs)
:-D
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I also am not an expert, but I have been watching this eruption closely since the end of August.
The take on this is that three possible scenarios exist for this event
1) It carries on as is and gradually fizzles out (make take several months or years)
2) The eastern side of the main caldera is being put under pressure. If this collapses it could lead to a very large eruption and a large flood as all the melting ice and water now in the caldera gets ejected into the land below and alongside.
3) The whole glacial ice in the calsera melts and the water sinks down into the main eruption chamber. This could be very nasty, with a massive eruption and floods and effects everywhere in Iceland.
It would be one of the major eruptions of the last few ages.
My take is that originally there was a 70% chance of option 1, 25% chance of option2 and a 5% of the mega volcano.
As it goes on, some of the experts on here are suggesting that the chance of one of the mega options is increasing.
Why?
The constant fissure eruption was thought to be slowly subsiding. This appears to have reversed slightly. (judging by the live web-camera shots.
The concentration of eruptions on the eastern and northern side of the volcano has remained.
The larger eruptions (M5) have reduced in number but are still occuring at lower intensities as frequently.
The caldera is constantly sinking (over 40 meters now)
Melt pools are now being seen on the top of the glacier recently. This does matter because it maeans that heating is coming up through the volcano. The air temp is below frezing.
This latter fact is worrying to me.....
I make it that the odds of option 3 are increasing.
In addition this mornings output now shows a m5.3 occured o/n, but this was on the ESE side. Most of the large eruptions recently have been on the northern side. This shows there still is a lot of instability around.
Two more M4 and above have occured in the couple of hours.
I have also noticed this morning that the pressure on two more volcanos in the area has increased noticably (Vis Hekla and Katya) If this is genuine (maybe some other reason for this - not related), I think this will cause more than a little interest during the day.
All in all no-one can predict, it could be on a knife edge. It certainly is a unique opportunity for our vulcanologists to study a potentially very large eruption from beginning to end.
MIA
Thanks for the response matey :-)
Very worrying then really? The thing is also pumping out thousands of tons of SO2 which if it continues at this rate, even without a major eruption, could it build up to dangerous concentration over the British Isles, like Laki?
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So, I'm going to ask maybe a stupid question as a lay person, so forgive me.
Are you hinting at the whole caldera might be about to blow? Like a super eruption?
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I don't think that updated. It's the same snow cover on the image from the 21st too!
Wish they'd get their fingers out, are there any other sites we can visit for the same thing?
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What's happened to the NOAA site? it's gone offline or something? I've not been able to get it for the past 2 days>??
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The temps were constantly in double figures in London by day and frequently by night, it was like being stuck in one long mild autumn that just went straight into spring, absolutely dire!
Well, maybe we can forgive it a little because, some of the gales were pretty exciting and the rain amounts ridicules.
And, it also lead on to one of the nicest summers we've ever had, which started in March and only finished two days ago.
But I agree on the snow point......God owes us ...BIG TIME!! :-D
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Some nice charts this morning with the GFS especially dishing out the goodies with an almost northerly toppler (NN/W) followed the next week by a high pressure forming over the BI which then starts to retrograde to wards the northern Atlantic and southern Greenland.
I'll go to work happy after seeing that :-)
(at least it will be cooler than now....more seasonable)
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Yes 18C+ daily CET's in the second half of October are very normal Scott
The weather is far from normal with horrid tropical airmasses staying over us week in week out with only the odd fresher day.
I think the trend over the past 6-7 years has been for weather to hang on for much longer in periods, than it used to. So, hopefully WHEN it turns cold, it'll hang around for weeks and weeks and weeks too. :-)
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Does anyone remember a chap called 'Tim Presutti' he was knocking a round the boards in a big way a few years ago, convinced that the little ice age was nigh?
I seem to remember the 'Polar Presutti Winter' was to begin in 2014? Wonder if he's still about and whether he still thinks the same?
I don't know why, but I always believed him for some reason and it's stuck in my mind for years and years what he said?
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Nyan cat flying over the UK :-P
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Very exciting looking 06Z run in deep FI, must be the first really wintry looking chart that we've had this autumn?
A great big, fat HP sitting over the UK , which then skulks off to Greenland and leaves us open to a very cold northerly straight from the pole. Plus the polar vortex is in Eastern Siberia......oooh err! I think I just had a chartgasm ><
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Well, if you think of the last 'most snowless winter' here, in Warwickshire (1989) , it was followed by a couple of really snowy winters.
Who could forget the great Midlands blizzard of the 9th december 1990? Over two feet of un-forecasted snow falling overnight......4 days without power and water! The first time I ever heard silence.
I remember struggling to the end of the street where the countryside started and off in the fields you could see the blue flashing of the electric pylons....really amazing sight! *sighs*
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I hate that the 'green run' is now 'the yellow' run ....shows my anal commitment to model watching lol :-P
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To be fair, I don't think anyone has seriously suggested that this winter is going to be mild. I was just attempting to put a bit of caution on the current optimism!
Fair enough :-p
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I can never understand why people get berated by others who get excited about the coming winter.
I don't think I'd be wrong if I said that 'EVERYONE' gets excited come november.
Some may be very good at meteorology, some may be just keen amateurs, some may just love snow and cold and pop onto here to ask if it's going to snow on a certain day 3 months away.
I think we should ramp and spout as much enthusiasm as we possibly can, because, if it's as mild and boring as most people on here seem to think, ramping and spouting rubbish is the best chance we have of keeping the torch of enthusiasm burning. :-)
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Well, it's going to have to try very hard to be as windy and wet as last year, so at least it should be better :-D
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How come not much is being said about all the cold water anomalies in the Northern hemisphere?
Surely it's going limit the amount of energy and temperature differentials, which fueled last winters' record breaking storms?
Looks almost the opposite to me.....any thoughts?
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DEC 2010.... The Three Degrees....."When Will I See You Again".... Maybe not in my lifetime
We never saw it here in the first place. 1/2cm of snow and everyone else was getting feet of the stuff :-(
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I sometimes mention that with snowy weather, if the snow cover goes very icy then I find myself hoping for a temporary thaw to remove the ice before the next fresh snowfall, but that's not the same as getting tired of cold snowy weather and thinking, "I don't want any more snow for a while". I don't know what it would take to get me thinking along those lines, but it would certainly be something a lot more severe than anything we got in 2009/10 or 2010/11.
The "wanting disruptive weather is selfish" thing is something that has often got to me over the years, and I think of it as partly a misconception (you are perceived as getting enjoyment out of others' suffering, rather than enjoying a source of it because of other redeeming features and despite the suffering) and partly a normative thing- anything that is considered different to the expected norm is vulnerable to being regarded with suspicion and even as perverse in some cases.
I might struggle to get much snow this winter as I expect to be based in Exeter for most of it this time around, although they did get a fair dumping in December 2010 (and to a lesser extent when I was there back in 2009- two unexpected snowfalls on the 2nd and the 5th February and another on the 4th/5th March) and I should be up north for Christmas. But as last winter demonstrated to an extreme, I should be more exposed to wild stuff from the Atlantic.
All I want is to have a snowfall to stop all the traffic so I can hear 'silence' in the town's streets.
I remember the great blizzard of 1990 when 2 feet of snow fell overnight, nothing could get through and there was no water or electricity for 4 days!
But most of all I remember the silence in the streets, except for the sound of children's laughter. That was amazing!
We've not come close to that since, maybe 2012 jan/feb, we managed to get around 12" of snow, but it came in a few separate snowfalls and meant the roads stayed clear the whole time.
2010 was useless here for snow. Whilst EVERYONE was celebrating on NW, in Warwickshire we stood by and watched 8 failed snowfalls, that dumped over a foot of snow not 10 miles from here whilst we got 0.5" :-(
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Well, put it this way, if it's worse than last year, I'm gonna start a fence panel company up :-D
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Fantastic cloud iridescence from just after that big storm had passed last december :-)
Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I think it's lovely to see all the emotion and enthusiasm within the forum. I've been here a long time too and have been though all the ups and downs (phantom easterlies) but I absolutely love getting wrapped up in all the ramping and high expectations, it's better to go to bed on a high note after the 18z and then sleep all night dreaming of blizzards.
Ofc you can add value to the thread, it's just a reflection of human nature all the one liner posts, but they are all adding to the 'feeling' of the season, even if nothing happens.
The only thing I dislike is when sometimes you are made to feel like you should have a degree in meteorology just to be able to post in the MO thread, that needs weeding out more than the enthusiastic folk imo.