VillagePlank

It certainly implies a sting-jet with gust speeds that high. Not sure that NWP systems are fine-grained enough to forecast them, though. More of a nowcasting thing, looking for that scorpions sting in the hook around the centre of the low.

They still sell Kestrel lager? Been a long time since I've had one of those

Just had a 'raise my eyebrow' gust here in Rochester (nr the top of Bluebell Hill) Bloody thing knocked my rhododendron pot over. Hrumph.

Met Office warnings are weather warnings with respect to human-life, and welfare. So, the criteria for a red-warning in Scotland, or indeed the SW is different for that in London and the South East. Given that c.70mph gusts are expected in the most saturated population in the Uk, during the day, it's probably warranted. The forecast gusts haven't changed much since yesterday, and I expect the probability of those gusts occurring has achieved such a likelyhood that it was time to issue the red when they did.

It dropped to 957mb. Still not the lowest recorded in the Uk, being 925mb ... weird stuff happened that night, the temperature massively increased before the worst hit, which we now call a sting-jet, but at the time it was theorised thingy.

Sting Jets only form in Shapiro-Keyser extratropical cyclones. Storm Eustice is forecast to be a Shapiro-Keyser extratropical cyclone. If it does occur, then it will between the bottom of the core and behind the cold front and will occur when the warm front begins to occlude. They are very rare, and most likely the cause of the devastation of the Oct 1987 storm, which I am old enough to remember. Stay safe people.

Indeed, there is ...

I am fairly certain with a bit of research one might be able to find a single run that forecasts snow for tomorrow for you

Only really visit when there is a chance of snow or thunder Here's the most promising run from 6z this morning. -5degC or below for snow!

Not much ramping going on. So, here, goes: remember 522dm for 50/50 chance of rain/snow:

Well, it's getting a little wet, now. No flashes nor bangs. Not even a funnel cloud. Looks promising to the West of here, so downstream to the S/SW might get lucky soon. Edenbrige/Sevenoaks that sort of area.

Indeed, I think it's about time I moved ....

Rain radar suggests that the strike near Ashford is from a cell that grew from zero to hero in just 45 minutes

A car went passed here. Wasn't that noisy, to be honest ....

So far this quiet corner of the far SE: Nicht, nada, nothing, non, zilch. Even though it tried to brighten up, it never quite got there, so the gentle little shower that passed overhead never developed. Always the optimist, hoping for some hand-me-downs from those further West, though seems unlikely. now. Some very very impressive photos from the lucky ones!

Yep. The problem today is insolation both for convection and the convergence zone. Hopefully (!!) skies can clear. They didn't show any sign of clearing earlier here in North Kent, but, much to my surprise, they are showing good signs now, really brightening up - 10 minutes from leaden skies to sun trying to poke through.

Skies just showing signs of clearing, here in Rochester ....

If I had to place a bet on heaviest of showers (read: possible thunderstorms) I'd go for E Anglia and Essex if (and only if) the sun comes out for a few hours from now. I think it's broke for Kent, and E Sussex - at least for now.

Hmmm: for SE: SkewT suggests moderately convective atmosphere with possible sparse and scattered thunderstorms. However, no DLS, no DpD, and CIN darting in and out all afternoon. CZ looks like it depends on isolation, and at the moment, cool but humid, and completely covered skies with time ticking by. Showers, some heavy, seem likely. Whether they upgrade to t/storms remains to be seen.

For the SE (Kent/E-Sussex). CIN should disappear sometime before 9pm, and then, hopefully, game on. Harmonie seemed to me to model the precipitation best last night, so not really expecting anything until 3am, and even then, quite sparse, despite potential.

I'm back, did I miss anything?

Certainly looks like "big clouds" All the way up ...

Normally, quite true. However, I think today is the West's turn, with risk gradually eeking out East as the hours dribble into tomorrow. Not sure it's even worth waiting up for us here in the East, expecting the main event very late in the night, perhaps even dawn, tomorrow, here. The crucial thing for us on this side of the country is the the theta-w plume making it before or during the cold front passage - a timed event that has so much that could possibly go wrong .....

It wasn't thunder. It was me, a microphone, a loud amp, and two hands

I took my kids out in the car up to Bluebell Hill that night. Completely and utterly overwhelming - the kids still talk about it from time to time, even now.