VillagePlank

Was that the one that made it up to Medway, and we named it the 'Medway Sausage' ?

Not forgetting the dewpoint depression between 850hPa to 600hPa ....

If I was a thunderstorm, I definitely would avoid Worthing ....

There's also the matter of the jet-stream overnight and into tomorrow morning ....

Does really depend on that tongue of theta-w, and timing of the front. If timing is spot-on, it'll be a night to remember. If not, well, not quite a damp-squib, but really a rather wet one.

Yep, mainly due to it's elevated nature - ie acceleration of air over more distance

"Results show that elevated convection cases produced more rainfall, total CG lightning flashes, and positive CG lightning flashes than surface based thunderstorms." https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2705/5a77074615d97ac474ff77694f174f7d3adb.pdf

The overnight storms are forecast to be elevated, so not connected to what's going on lower down - ie we don't need strong insolation to get going. It looks, rather, a function of the theta-w plume arriving at the same time as the cold front.

GFS 6z has location better than GFS 12z. The 12z puts the start of this too far North and West, What does this hold in store for tonight? (as if you haven't already looked), Which looks like a direct hit for Medway. Direct. Hit. We shall see ...

It's not hard to see why GFS upgraded in the 12z in Kent. A very very marginal nudging in off the Kent coast of some higher wet bulbs .. . Great idea if you're drunk and playing with oodles of processing power buried in some mountain somewhere. The real world? One for the bin.

For those in North Kent, like me, 12z is an upgrade from the 6z:

Hot, sweaty, irritable, and in desperate need of a beer?

It's 6z also has the action much more west than GFS, and MetO, and ECMWF. It's on it's own there, but you never know ....

GFS 6z well ahead of you there, Alderc. It forecast cloud cover as well as later thunderstorms.

Drawing a line between the Isle of Wight and The Wash, anywhere east of this have a very good chance of seeing storms this evening. Latest model guidance, 12z GFS, flattens the cells trajectory to a more easterly direction, meaning that Norfolk could miss out. However, you and I both know that the 12z has been in the pub since it opened at 11am this morning and cobbled something together after 4 pints, 3 shots, and an encouter with the barmaid. Of course, all best guesses. Radar is best option now.

Can't see it on the radar, but there's a monster to my south and west (Maistone/West Malling) EDIT: Now giving good thunder!

It does look grim for us in Kent, today, I must admit. Still, 06z will give better guidance.

Best hope for SE is very strong surface heating to 15z so when all the convective inhibition disappears for a couple hours storms can form rapidly. If it's not done by 18z, then homegrown storm chances are virtually nil, and we're off to the French, cap-in-hand (pun intended) for whatever we can get.

From the GFS 00z. Window of opportunity exists for storms for Kent/East Sussex between 15z and 18z, conveniently during the time of most insolation. Not a great opportunity, but an opportunity nevertheless. Will there be enough time for storms to form? It's still only a moderately convective environment, no DLS, slack winds, and no convergence zone. Three hours later the opportunity is lost: Best hope, according to GFS, for far SE (Kent/East Sussex) is relying on our good friends, the French, to send something our way, later on this evening: Good luck all !!

12z is out:

581,479

Yes, relying on French imports is probably the best bet for Kent/East Sussex. We only need 149,440,000 calories for Kent alone, to break the cap of just 22 j/kg. That's the equivalent of 649,739 pints of Stella.

Long time no see. According to GFS 0.25 6z, the action appears in the SE corner, apparently from nowhere, from 15z onwards. It seems there's a window where the cap (CIN=0) is low or is not present. I have to say, however, it's a small window, and with no real dewpoint depression, and indeed with increasing moisture all the way up to 800hPa, there may only be time for elevated clouds sufficient for (lots of) rain. Surface heating looks right on the lower side of the margin for surface convection to kick off. As always, wait and see, but probably best to wait until tomorrow if you're in the SE - unless the luck is in, of course!

Most of it seems to have passed to my north, now. Looking like it's still going strong, well worth it if you are downwind of me

Absolutely amazing lightning and thunder here in Rochester. Most of it CC but some CGs mixed in.