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VillagePlank

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Everything posted by VillagePlank

  1. VillagePlank
    OK, maybe not 'just saying' but a little of this, too :
  2. VillagePlank
    Just saying, I'm just saying ...
  3. VillagePlank
    Oh dear .... it could well be that the t/storms will happen north and east of you, which will be very frustrating as it's still likely you'll see the cells as rain as they pass overhead.
  4. VillagePlank
    Is that for today *and* tomorrow? The forecast is for late evening early morning, not ten minutes time!!
  5. VillagePlank
    Locations are right up in the air, right now (and so is timing) given the long time it has taken for the detritus to clear this morning. That excessive precipitation blob was/is forecast to travel up the channel by other weather models, sadly. I think we'll know locations better (but not perfectly) once the shortwave has entered the channel, and, of course, it is likely to enter the channel as rain turning to the thunderstorms as it embarks.
  6. VillagePlank
    Today's chances are determined by the theta-w plume. Outside the darkest area on the maps, it looks like rain, but inside these regions, the potential for thunderstorms is there - often thunderstorms happen on the leading edge. So for far SE area, we are looking at late evening early morning. Of course, in the real world, Mother Nature often has other idea re timing, and locations ...
  7. VillagePlank
    Look at the bases on these puppies. Looking West from Rochester
  8. VillagePlank
    Just had a heavy shower, no thunder, and near blue skies.
  9. VillagePlank
    Good luck, all. I hope we all see something over the next 24 hours.
  10. VillagePlank
    I haven't looked at the forecast for St Helier, to be honest,
  11. VillagePlank
    Chris Fawkes, BBC, just said it will all go with a bang ... eventually.
  12. VillagePlank
    For S England, the game this evening was always 1/1000 shot. More likely to see something early hours or before lunch tomorrow.
  13. VillagePlank
    Possibly. However, this is what the Met Office said: "There is a risk of more severe thunderstorms breaking out over parts of the Midlands, northern England and north Wales from late Wednesday afternoon onwards into Wednesday night, leading to torrential downpours, frequent lightning, very large hail and strong gusts of wind." Now, I might be getting on a bit, but, I'm pretty sure I read that right.
  14. VillagePlank
    The forecast was for conditions to be right from 6pm. i.e. Now. It still takes time for storms to develop ..... chin up, old boy.
  15. VillagePlank
    That's only part of the story: the main initiation is this trough breaking through from the West clearing the cap. Once that's done, all the bits and pieces should be in place. A good sign is the speed this thing is travelling through; most models put it a lot slower, and thus the risk of nothing happening (too late in the day) was a real possibility. It think it's looking very positive at the moment.
  16. VillagePlank
    Clouds developing at back of cirrus just north of London. Rather rapidly, too. Those couple of strikes just north west of Paris developed from zero to hero in 25 minutes.
  17. VillagePlank
    Sferics noted north west of Paris. Wasn't expecting sferics this early, this far east.
  18. VillagePlank
    That *must* have North Kent's name on it. Please. Pretty please?
  19. VillagePlank
    There's a bit way out West where the line goes South. That's got North Kent written all over it.
  20. VillagePlank
    Yep, it looks incoming, for sure.
  21. VillagePlank
    And, of course, so you should be. The forecast for action *starts* at 6pm .... and ends around 3am tomorrow.
  22. VillagePlank
    Never say never. There is still an outside chance (very very low risk) of something during the night for London and the SE.
  23. VillagePlank
    Here's the skew-t for now, for Heathrow, from the GFS-6z I know that everyone else is forecasting no precipitation let alone storms, but I gotta say, I'd say there's an outside chance between now and 6pm of something developing if and only if that CIN really has reduced to zero
  24. VillagePlank
    If you look at the high theta-e values (last one at 6pm) in my previous post, and compare that to the high theta-w values in this one, where they overlap is the most likely place to observe thunderstorms this evening. Possibility of an outside chance of Isle of Wight seeing some action, too, but a low probability nevertheless, and you can see the reason why the MetO are suggesting more action tomorrow for SW England.
  25. VillagePlank
    Here's what the West Midlands is waiting for: Note the ridge of high theta-e air moving in from the Irish Sea. Theta-e has some interesting properties so that a ridge of it (like shown above) can (and often does) show the area in situations like today where a convection burst is likely, and, in any case, high values tend to mean very high levels of instability
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