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Dorsetbred

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    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    Morning All, an earlier shower added 0.2mm to the rainfall for the month after yesterdays 11mm, and looking an interesting week, as each Inbound low, having it's own characteristic almost with the weekend low looking the most feisty of the three. Interesting to see how the keys players in forecasting have moved the track of the low more easterly than yesterday.

    A sure sign the seasons have changed, the cloud, the choppy seas and the removal of the container from the beach after the summer season...

    image.thumb.png.030c1036754eb620481d7dc5718fda50.png

    Meanwhile an overnight low 8.8°C at: 01:4, currently 13.6°C with the RH80%

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    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Dorsetbred

    3 hours ago, Rich_Clements said:

    After wearing shorts whilst at home since May I think it might be time to go back to long legs

     

     

    I started with shorts ans T from the first lock down, I haven't gone back yet, and I didn't stop wearing shorts and T the "winter" which let's face it wasn't cold. Does seem like I'll be going back soon into the office, so not sure how I'll cope with "Long trousers" again!

    • Thanks 1

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    Morning All, well that was Autumn heralding a new season last night, with some gusty breeze and at last some measureable rainfall..

    image.thumb.png.84acd137a159cf124fd4f5246fab0684.png

    Rainfall amount here was 10.6mm, I was concerned that the spiders had taken roost, and the gauge wouldn't read, but having moved the sensor recently, maybe I dislodged them!

    Beach is empty this morning, whilst we have blue sky before the possible onset of the Inbound showers

    image.thumb.png.e66ae3800dc941f188dfa87df950839d.png

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dorsetbred

    4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    Haven't we gone into winter in many recent years with weak zonal winds only for them to ramp into gear in December. I recall this was the case in 2016, 2018 and 2019. Last year as well.

    it does make you wonder, if this is going to happen again, which makes me wonder looking at everything going on are trying to analyse the month of December (and beyond)  a little early? Just seems a tad early to really have a firm grasp on the season..I appreciate it is a "forecast"..

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Dorsetbred

    2 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

    I love your photos they make me feel happy. The sea is my happy place. The sky looks similar here and up at 22.2c. Need to have a shower, get dressed and then get out in the garden for the last nice day of the year.

    Why bother getting dressed, enjoy the last warm sunny day of the season .....alasti.....in the garden with the chickens..

    • Like 1

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    A layer of St starts the day, with the occasinal break , after an overnight low of 11.4°C at: 07:13 currently 13.8°C with a RH97% with 2mph SW light breeze.

    Sat image shows the clear western areas and us poor souls still covered in cloud

    image.thumb.png.c2d744f5d05f91c2549be5b73f7bb4e7.png

    With the local taf reporting:

    Few clouds at a height of 500 ft
    Scattered clouds at a height of 900 ft

    Meanwhile some thinning of the St layer suggests some Sc beyond

    image.thumb.png.ced58ef5d13e93611818283c6e30e3cc.png

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Dorsetbred

    10 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

    Another amazing difference across our region! Warmest day of the week in Warminster at 21.9c max right now with 75% clear sky and some Stratocumulus.

    Still clear skies down here, temperatures a tad lower than yours at current 18.8°C with a 4mph breeze in from the WNW its really nice out there.. 

    image.thumb.png.eee1df6054f0875df25b0dae30642496.png

    • Like 1

    Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    Was going to post my 5th winter 2021/2022 CFS 00z 9 monthly update in the other thread but since I have noticed this new one come up I decided this would be a better place for it.

    My first 4 updates have all produced something on the colder side of average overall so far but last weeks was the least cold one so far. What will this week's have in store. This one is based on the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 23/09/2021

    December 2021

    image.thumb.png.dfadb2c258a0af1331faec78c20c4a56.png

    We open December 2021 like this under high pressure and a slight easterly flow over southern parts. Not a particularly cold air mass here so temps very much near average.

    image.thumb.png.44c43bde796121d308db85e8f0ee4722.png

    We see northern blocking attempting to get going here but the UK is still under a developing southerly from the low pressure to the SW unfortunately if you want cold.

    image.thumb.png.a642ebf45a895fa3fe17928d315cf768.pngimage.thumb.png.4218d3c6ea960e78dc8dafcdfc4b80ff.pngimage.thumb.png.f9dc693bb7b971d0fac7ba1eef266e4f.png

    All that happens here is that we enter a period of zonality and the mildest part of December 2021 as well

    image.thumb.png.af44b6613cc1efe6222eb61400aeb11b.pngimage.thumb.png.f5597009e713f4d7cbcd5c8610e7ccb2.pngimage.thumb.png.3273e3c3b45b18212a29ef3aa88b4025.png

    High pressure eventually builds back in and we attempt to get into a beasterly setup. We just end up with high pressure sitting close to the UK in the end so less mild but by no means that cold either.

    image.thumb.png.ca8eb800703902d98a14f0a8284ee854.png

    At last the first taste of cold in the month with a northerly and a potential snow shower risk in the N and E especially. Just perfectly timed before Christmas too.

    image.thumb.png.dbafd4b058ec208f31f6249a6b8a5641.pngimage.thumb.png.a63db69c61051530914ee3ca4e1e86dd.pngimage.thumb.png.23b0f647c40492097211d56d18c94f36.png

    However this is quickly blown away by the polar vortex and the next low coming in from the Atlantic then back we go to mild SW winds again

    image.thumb.png.6e485aec77326d5d898c9ef9e396b9f0.png

    This is how we finish December 2021 on this particular run.

    December 23/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                        
    Av Max          5.45C                     Max          7.71C               -2.26C
    Av Min           5.45C                     Min           2.22C              +3.22C          0 Ice Days    
    Av Mean        5.45C                     Mean       4.97C               +0.48C

    As expected with a lot of zonality during the month we come out milder than average with a mean of 5.45C which is +0.48C above the 1991-2020 December mean. Not as mild as I thought it would come out as however and more or less matches the previous update from a week ago for December 2021 and maintains the milder than average December theme as a result. Not reading too much into this one as all the Decembers have followed the same pattern and the overall winter update has still managed to come out colder than average overall. Will we maintain this trend or will the rest of the winter be a write off. Time to bring on January 2022 and see.

     

    Interesting in comparison to how many different resources are going for a FRONT end loaded winter yet using you prognosis it looks to be a tail end loaded winter. All to play for on that basis then..Thanks for the time and effort you put in to produce this prognosis, let's see who comes put the winner then..

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