Mark Bayley
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Posts posted by Mark Bayley
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The place is east facing and is 300m asl. Need around 8cm+ so hoping that strong north east wind will drift it nicely. Looks like a slight upgrade tonight
If the area of heavier precipitation reaches that area, then i think 8cm+ is achievable
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Hey Mark. I'm planning on snowboarding around the edale area on Saturday morning. Think it be good enough?
Not sure how much snow you would need? I'd suggest several cm's for high ground around Edale (precipitation dependant)
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GFS 18z shifts north, albeit slightly. Still looking marginal, however dewpoints fall away as the evening progresses. So a rain to snow event away from high ground seems probable, with some minor accumulations. Higher ground (the peak district) will do well from this!
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I meant the ECM is furtherest south with the precipitation, although yes it is one of the better projections for our snow chances. Although, as alluded to by CH, its maybe best to stick to higher resolution models
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The ECM is the furthest south, with the heaviest precipitation in the south of our region (snow to the hills).
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Several cm's over high ground on the GEM, although again sleety away from higher regions. Will see where the 12z's leave us
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Yes, a marginal situation. 6Z NMM has a period of heavy sleet for lower ground of our region, although a notable snow event for the Pennines. I still reckon (for my part of the region) that western Sheffield will do quite well. Its going to come down to forecasting on the day
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West/North Yorkshire are fine for low ground snowfall.
Risk of more marginal conditions further south.
Those regions will certainly fair better, although dewpoints look very marginal away from the Pennine regions. Do think we'll see some snow falling, although most notable for the Pennine region. The UKMO does have the low further south (thus the milder sector), so if precipitation did reach us, it would offer more wintry potential
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Certainly a chance of some snow boxing day evening, although i'd suggest accumulating snow will be restricted to higher ground (Pennines) and areas with decent altitude (e.g. Western Sheffield). Further shifts south will increase this risk, so one to keep an eye on.
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Could be an interesting boxing day snow event for those on higher ground north of the Midlands as the 12z pushes the small low further south. Dewpoints look too high for those on lower ground, but one to keep an eye on (especially with further shifts south)
UKMO further south too
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Better agreement between the operational and the parallel. Sadly the 6z was never going to happen. It seems a brief but potent northerly before new year (with wintriness for some). Thereafter uncertainty continues, although settled, but probably cold conditions, to prevail into and through new year. As stated earlier, i do not believe that any strengthening of the PV will last long, for reasons outlined earlier and by many other members. I'm afraid it is a waiting game in our hunt for snowier charts (but charts that will come)!
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For all those disappointed with this mornings runs, run through this beauty, we can all dream...
:smiliz19:http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=1&mode=0&carte=0
(sadly on its own)
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Anyone for perturbation 1? :smiliz19:
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Precisely.. After looking at the NH maps on both runs.. I'd have to say GFSP is more indicative of what is happening in the stratosphere and regarding the latest tweet from MH?
Any effects of the predicted warming would take time to influence tropospheric patterns, so a temporary strengthening of the PV is possible. However, longer term, the charts shown by the ECM and GFS would seem unlikely to be sustained (IMO) as the PV continues to come under increasing pressure (e.g. > )
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Certainly a confusing picture from the models this morning. I note, upstream, the ECM and GFS are keen on ramping up the PV, with low heights over Greenland and +AO/NAO. Given the predicted warming of the strat with further wave breaking (and easterly QBO), plus re-excitement of the MJO, i don't subscribed to that prediction, or at least in the long term. The GFS (P) may have been on the drink, although of the state PV in FI seems a little more believable as we progress into and through January.
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Not sure if this has already been posted......
"Potential" for rapid change still in place despite poor operational guidance in the past 24 hours..................
Latest summary from AER issued yesterday.....
December 19, 2014
Summary
• The AO will remain positive for the next 5-7 days but then turn sharply negative near or just after Christmas. This negative state is expected to remain in place through the end of December and into early January.
• The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will weaken substantially and also turn negative by the start of week 2 as ridging over Greenland builds during the period.
• Collectively, these changes will mean below to much below normal temperatures will invade the Northern Hemisphere continents after Christmas and lasting into early January. Colder than average conditions will also overtake much of Eurasia, with eastern Asia remaining cold.
• The state of the AO in the long-term (i.e., into mid-January) is uncertain given the lack of forcing from the stratosphere and current model run-to-run volatility
Interesting to note they predict a return towards +AO/NAO through to mid-January (with any SSW occurring after this), although with some uncertainty. I suspect the GFS has overdone the strength of the PV, given it has an obsession with this in FI, however longer term, sustained cold into and through January may not be on the cards. The ECM is more interesting with a strong ridge over Alaska attacking the PV, perhaps one to watch.
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Interestingly the ECM and GFS are pretty similar at T240. A trend towards height rises over Greenland is now more prominent. A big snow event on 27th from GFS which i can guarantee will happen because i am due to travel from the north to London via train..
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I imagine the Scottish mountains have a fair bit of snow on them, not sure there will be any in England (and if there was it will soon be melted). Have a look at some of the mountain area forecasts Mark posted, normally they specify what current conditions are like.
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Even stronger on the 12z SK >
No SSW yet, however the PV is certainly going to come under some pressure as we head into January.
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What do we have here?
Certainly the strongest warming so far predicted. A definite trend towards renewed disruption of the PV and increasing heights over Greenland towards new year. Not strong, but certainly interesting. A more notable cold spell as we progress into new year? One to keep an eye on i think. Snow again shown for xmas day in north western regions
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Great post Steve; looking forward to a few level 10-12's as we progress into and through January
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GFS 18z less of a horror show than the ECM. FI is colder rather than milder with the PV looking disrupted by the end of the run. Wintry showers in the north for Xmas day. Those expecting sustained cold before new year will be disappointed, although i'd happily take something akin to the 18z. I note the strat warming is slightly upgraded which should aid any PV disruption. Any SSW seems reserved for the new year.
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This one?
Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades
Yes, that is an example and one im hoping to read
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Thanks and interestingly, Mark, it is all interlinked with the Taymyr anomalies in that region. Not weighted for that as such - but the expected pattern is.
I suspected so given its locality, not had time to read them yet. Thanks for the reply
. Theres some many feedbacks and processes you could spend months on them! -
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Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
Another shift northwards of precipitation on the NMM, albeit slight.