Mark Bayley

Definitely hints that the weather may turn more wintry as we head through the first half of January. Although i'd agree with BA that a battleground between the cold and less cold air is going to establish near us, if it does. There are some promising signals in the stratospheric outlook, with strong wave breaking events over the next few weeks (i.e. deflection of rosby waves into the strat, see CH's post for a great overview http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/). Wave break two> Wave break one > Also note some warming, and possible further warming> Although nothing spectacular, with zonal winds remaining pretty strong This shouldn't be enough to cause a disintegrated polar vortex, and sustained prolonged cold, but will no doubt lead to some disruption before probable reformation. The MJO remains in relatively low amplitude, and thus wont have much impact. GFS and UKMO go for a weakish phase 8, which gives us this composite, supporting height rises towards Greenland. (http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JanuaryPhase8500mb) Ensembles show good support for -AO. I'd suggest, based on the current output, that some sort of battle ground is likely up close to the UK as we progress through the first half of January. Low pressure systems pushing south into Europe, across or below the UK, which as we know can lead to some pretty interesting conditions to those north of any lows! Ensembles already starting to look colder

but could also produce some pretty good snow events, if it was to occur. although as you state, fun model watching, if not a little nerve racking. Heres hoping the models keep with the wintry theme.

Strongest winds further north on the 6z, although still gusts up to and around 50mph for our local.

Merry Christmas all! Someone needs to give the 6z a kick

Period of heavy rain Friday morning, although pushing through quite quickly. I'd say anything between 10-20mm for those areas currently experiencing flooding. Strong winds the main concern further north, with gusts of 50-60mph quite widely (more in exposed locations), with winds strongest across Northern England, NI and North Wales. I'd expect more travel disruption

Number 17 is a good example > http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=17&mode=0&carte=0 Hopefully nowhere near as strong as that. The GFS 12z is the least worse (but by no means good), with the ECM and UKMO progging the stronger winds to affect more of the UK.

Quick scan of the ensembles and there's a few interesting solutions however most power the jet through, with high pressure pushed into Europe. The UK ends up mild, and unsettled. Still, the ECM is yet to show, and the GEM looks rather nice. At the moment, based on the models, and teleconects, i'd favour the milder and unsettled option over something akin to the GEM and ECM 0z.

While many are probably focused on how cold it will get, and snowy, its worth highlighting the potential for quite strong winds Thursday afternoon. This is especially the case for Scotland, Northern England/Wales/Ireland where gusts of 60mph quite widely seems possible (and higher in more exposed locations). Be interesting to see the UKMOs take

Just playing around with the GFS postage stamps and there is defiantly growing support for Scandinavian height rises with the core of the PV relocating to the Greenland/Canadian sector. Some make more of it than others, although the control and a few other runs look pretty good (UK terms). As mentioned, something to definitely watch in the longer term.

Some rather interesting ensemble members, PB 10 and 20 looking rather tasty.. A few seem to go on to develop something this in the far reaches of FI (transfer of higher pressure towards Greenland ~4-5 members), although i would suggest this is unlikely given the current background signals (strat for a start). What does seem likely is some sort of height building towards scandi, defiantly something to keep an eye on in future runs!

The GFS 12z highlights perfectly how volatile the model output can be. I would suggest its probably gone off on one, and some sort of northerly incursion is still quite likely, although will see what the ECM churns out. Current stratospheric conditions (increased zonal winds and lower than average temperature) will inhibit any sort of prolonged high latitude blocking, although will not prevent colder spells from occurring. However, anything other transient northerlies i would suspect is unlikely, at least until we see some sort of notable warming event. Having a quick look at the MJO and there seems general consensus, at least form the ECM and GFS, for progressing it into phase 2/3 as we progress into December. This gives the following composites, the later lending some support for heights being centred more in the Atlantic, allowing for brief northerly incursions. Not really had to time to look at the data in detail, far to many university essays, although hopefully past Christmas i'll be able to post more!

4.2c please

Can report snow here in Broomhill, Sheffield. Settling on cars and road, just! Wasn't expecting this

7.2c please

Great to see all the positive anomalies over Europe and Asia, which i suspect will increase in the coming days, especially nearer our side. This certainly bodes well for Cohens theory!

Should be the closest i've ever been this month (guessed 14.0c). Makes a change!

10.8c please

14.0c for me please

16.8c please

Constant rumbling of thunder, im just too far west to catch in on the main action. Looking good for Lincoln

Seems to be restrengthening to the south of Chesterfield, maybe hope is not lost. Infrequent thunder from the storm approaching worksop

They always split :/

Starting to thunder, with light rain. I see there is a gap forming Alfreton, im guessing that gap is going to get me as well!

Getting dark as that cell over Nottingham slowly approaches, hopefully a decent storm as the radar shows some decent strike rates

Oh, the thunder and lightening has just stopped. Steady rain at the moment