Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

jethro

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,334

  • Joined

  • Days Won

    21

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jethro

  1. jethro
    From what I've heard, I think your first step would be to approach your bank manager for a loan.
  2. jethro
    -4 here last night, blinking cold but everything looks very pretty with the thick layer of frost. Dogs however are less than impressed, one came flying down the garden, tried to corner onto the decking, promptly lost all footing and slid into the French windows
  3. jethro
    All of this MAY be true but the thing is, we don't know and every new claim which says we do know seems more and more ridiculous. I'd have far more empathy for the argument if just every now and again, those throwing out such alarmist claims would actually say "this is one of many possible scenario's" or even "this is worse case scenario". It's the claimed certainty which doesn't hold any water. As for what we can actually do, well I can't do any more. I'm not going to spend my time doing a poor imitation of the boy with his finger in the dyke whilst simultaneously wringing my hands in woe. If the risks to humanity are as vast as being portrayed then governments will have to respond to them. Whilst I see little concern from world governments, other than half ar##d efforts to change energy generation, (and that's got more to do with running out of fossil fuels/not wanting to be held to ransom by nations which have plenty) I see no reason for personal woe and worry. The scientific debate is an interesting puzzle, sometimes engaging but all too often diluted by personal goals and generally speaking, the way the science is processed nowadays leaves a lot to be desired - fame and fortune coupled with media hype has hijacked the subject to the point that it's increasingly difficult to have faith in much of what is produced.
  4. jethro
    You've clearly missed your way in life Ian, although I imagine it's not too late to follow your obvious calling - and no, I'm not being sarcastic. For a mere mortal like me who hasn't the time to devote to endless hours of reading, I have to rely on the results on the scientists. If they plot the history of Greenland melt and can detect a cyclical element, I'm happy to accept their word on it. What I'm less happy to do is accept studies based on incredibly short time spans, for me that is the way to see what you want to see. Places like Greenland have a glacial history eons long, studying that can only be done via proxy measurements, how accurate those proxies are, how they are interpreted and then placed alongside modern measurements, leaves a large scope for inaccuracies to occur. I admire the resolute conviction of some of the claims made, that doesn't however mean I am convinced by them. Given how little we actually know, the vast amount we don't know, coupled with the immeasurable amount of what we don't know, we don't know, I'm absolutely certain new study after new study will reveal a clearer picture. For now, I'm happy to accept everything is as clear as mud and see no point in latching on to every snippet of info as being the gospel truth. And that's where you and I divide into the chasm of opposing views, I'm happy to say we don't know, you're absolutely certain we do.
  5. jethro
    There's nothing noob about it, just plain old common sense and logic - it's a welcome relief from all the alarmist nonsense. That will never happen.
  6. jethro
    And I remember you pushing a paper from Serenze and his death spiral at every available opportunity. At least he had the decency to retract and apologise for his excited haste.... By all means criticise scientific papers, but criticise folk for having faith in peer reviewed papers???? Are you seriously suggesting that the only peer reviewed stuff which should be listened to and noted are ones you agree with, or ones which show what you want them to show? I'm pretty sure the basis for all science is one of progression, a paper published this year about any given subject may well be super ceded next year if more information/evidence is available to study. No science is set in stone, least of all, climate science. Criticising that process (as you do above) either reveals you do not appreciate how science progresses or demonstrates a desire to bicker just for the sake of it - neither one of those options does your stance or argument in favour of AGW any favours.
  7. jethro
    Drove back from Wells about an hour ago and it was seriously lashing down with rain, no trace of wintriness at all but I'm sure I saw a flash of lightening. It was blinking horrible weather but seems to have cleared through now.
  8. jethro
    Wasn't the deep snow in February a couple of years ago the result of a channel low?
  9. jethro
  10. jethro
    The Sun's impact upon the jet stream has nothing to do with TSI, the energy from the Sun is not the issue, nor is albedo or pollution. A quiet Sun causes the jet stream to head further South and meander due to the changes in UV. This behaviour is the same behaviour which is being blamed on the lower ice levels - how are the two causes separated, how is it possible to ascribe the Southerly tracking jet stream to one cause or the other? Your assertion of not needing to look beyond the most obvious causes is nothing more than your own confirmation bias, it has no relevance to the science. Currently, we're approaching Solar max but this max is so quiet, as has been the entire cycle thus far, it's hardly worth calling a max at all. The Sun is very quiet and expected to remain so for the foreseeable future (this cycle and beyond to the next, and possibly the one after that). Mike Lockwood has shown the quiet Sun has a direct impact on the jet stream, it is supported by the weather archives from official sources. It is this mechanism which is believed to have been the major player in The Little Ice Age in the NH. It's unfortunate timing that the Sun decides to go quiet at the same time as we have lower ice levels, it makes it nigh on impossible to distinguish the major player in the jet stream changes. I'm just wondering if any progress has been made on this issue?
  11. jethro
    So is that a yes or a no? Can they separate the signal caused by a quiet Sun from the signal caused by less ice? Both can lead to a meandering, southerly jet stream. As for nous...time is in short supply, what with Christmas coming and my annual deck the halls with boughs of Holly mission, knee deep in evergreens and Mistletoe here.
  12. jethro
    Is there any info on how they have managed to distinguish between this signature and the same signature caused by a quiet Sun?
  13. jethro
    Is it the Bristol channel which causes the M4 boundary or is it something to do with Wales soaking up the Atlantic warming influence? Does that make any sense or am I talking gibberish? Oh, and not a flake to be seen at the Reindeer parade but there was the odd snowflake blowing around in the breeze yesterday.
  14. jethro
    I take it that's an open invitation to stay for all of us south of that blessed barrier....
  15. jethro

    New Research

    jethro replied to jethro's topic in Climate Change

    It's not necessarily confirmation that folk want, I can't actually think of anyone who say's we've not had any impact. Where the debate is, is the magnitude and the impacts felt on the ground. What irks people is how every single weather event is linked to climate change if it's a negative event but if we get a cold winter, even a global one, it will be dismissed as just weather but if it's followed by a hot summer, well, that will be climate change.
  16. jethro
    So what you're saying Ian is that on Sunday in Wells, when the Reindeer's are nodding, as the brass band strikes up with the opening chords of In The Bleak Mid Winter, it should be listened to as an ode with a post modern twist......There goes my festive mince pie munching, they'll be no choice but to seek solace in copious amounts of mulled wine.
  17. jethro
    Now that's funny! Think about it Ian..... You and I will never agree on this subject - ever. I haven't got a bleak bone in my body, I don't do bleak, grim, panic or dire. I'm an optimistic pragmatist, always have been, always will be. Missing a piece of info on global temps? We're missing vast swathes of info on all sorts of things connected to climate, that's what makes me ruefully shake my head at the utter conviction of some people on this debate. Mark Twain is the closest we've got to the truth in all this, I'm sticking with his assessment.
  18. jethro
    I know it will change but for those like me who like a glimmer of hope to start the day, this morning's reading on the "Will it snow" feature say there's a 50% chance for here on Sunday. I hope it stays like that and moves the risk further down the slopes of the Mendip's, it would be spot on timing for the Reindeer parade in Wells at lunchtime on Sunday. Perfectly festive
  19. jethro
    So, if you take every worse case scenario prediction, time them to perfection, throw in a few unknowns but possibles, then we're facing a future of dire consequences? I'd have more confidence in that outlook coming true if they could get short term projections like the temperature increases right. As the record shows, we're no where near the top end of the expected temperature increase, clearly the worse case scenario is struggling a little already.
  20. jethro
    You're a bit late...more like got.
  21. jethro
    I don't now about cold weather coming, it feels like it's already here, blinking cold today and I saw a lad waiting at the bus stop wearing jeans and a vest top???? He must have been frozen.
  22. jethro
    I've just deleted a whole raft of posts. If you really need to bicker, please take it to PM, the rest of us don't want to read it.
  23. jethro
    If it goes high enough and ejects enough sulphur, then yes, it can have an effect. There was a paper posted a while back in the Volcanic thread here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/62309-general-volcanic-activity-thread/page__st__1420
  24. jethro
    That site uses OS maps which I think are the most accurate source for this info. The 5m down to the beach would be 5m above sea level, as measured from Newlyn.
  25. jethro
    That may be your true height absl but the one officially referred to and referenced in weather forecasts is the Newlyn one. The origins of it can be found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QNH I'd be curious to know what, if any difference there is for your location???
×
×
  • Create New...