jethro

It's the same here too with a couple of exceptions.....We've a very grumpy Wren yelling it's head off at all the rest, seems to be trying to keep order. Plus the Peasant which abandoned ship from the local shoot a couple of years ago when the first gun went off, is now so fat I'm surprised it can still fly; I've never seen a Pheasant so huge, definite candidate for a gastric band.

Whilst I've popped my head in here, there's a thought I've had about the new METO projection.....It's now in line with the projections made a few years ago by Bob Spencer and with the same reasoning/thinking behind it. The METO now agreeing with the arch enemy sceptic, who'd have thought it!

If you want guarantees then weather isn't a safe bet at any time of year. It's been a bit grim so far but then we live in the SW - mild and wet is the default pattern. Although it's not been the best year for cold weather, you and I have at least had the bonus of snow already, 3inches or so on the 4th of November has got to be a bonus in anyone's books.

I could have sworn that the outlook has always been for this weekend to be cold and possibly snowy for some but that this was expected to be a short term thing, a winter bonus, nothing to do with strat warming. Thereafter it was likely to warm up again for a week or so but that there was then potential for the weather to turn cold, possibly very cold with possibly snowy weather thrown in too towards the end of the month and into February. Not being someone who gets drawn into the seesaw ride of watching every model run, preferring instead to accept the wiser, broader views of the likes of JH, GP and Ian F, I can't see that much has changed in the forecast. Folk moan about forecasts being wrong but then seem to skip over ones which were right. Now I'm not saying I can see into the future and their forecasts have verified about this period but so far, they're on the money.

I've just popped my head into the Mod thread.....confusing! To be fair, I find reading the models confusing in the midst of summer with nowt but high pressure to look at. From what I can gather (especially after reading GP's thoughts) we can expect a cooler/cold weekend with the possibility of snow for some but as always, exactly who and where will remain a mystery until a few hours away. Next week may be a little warmer after Mondayish, a cool and unsettled week with the odd surprise thrown in. Thereafter, there are indications it may turn cold again, possible really quite cold. From memory (albeit one which has old person tendencies) I'm pretty certain the Strat thread, GP, the METO and Ian Ferguson have all said we could expect short lived cold, then milder then perhaps longer term/deeper cold and that the weather this coming weekend was a typical winter offering, nothing to do with Strat warming - merely a bonus. So why are so many people throwing wobblies? Folk moan that forecasts are wrong but then seem to conveniently overlook and forget any which they don't want to happen.

What a glorious Spring day it's been today, sunshine, warm, no breeze - perfect! I'm sure I'll get as excited as the next person if we end up with snow but after today, there's a large bit of me which would like to skip Winter altogether and fast forward to Spring.

You sure??? Blue is rain, green is sleet, pink is snow.

Ian, how do you rate the chances for us up here on the Mendip's to have something a little more wintry over the weekend?

I'm not saying this is going to happen, but.....Ian F said in a post earlier today that his METO mentor had said the situation this weekend is very similar to what happened on the 8th December 1990. This is what happened on that date: 1990 (December): 1. A low formed dramatically over central England on the 7th, large quantities of RAIN, turning in many places to SNOW, fell on its western and northern flanks. On the 7th and 8th very HEAVY SNOW fell over northern England, Wales, the Midlands and south west England, with heavy drifting in GALE FORCE WINDS, causing considerable disruption to traffic and cutting power lines. The snow did not freeze, however, but melted very rapidly during the next few days, as the temperature rose a little. By late on the 8th, many parts of the Midlands had 20 cm or more of LYING SNOW, Acocks Green, Birmingham reported 42.5 cm on the 8th. The Peak District had 38 cm at Middleton and 25 cm at Winksworth, while in Newcastle under Lyme 28 cm was recorded, and many other places had more than 20 cm. DRIFTS up to 60 cm on motorways in the Derby area, and at Carlton in Coverdale, near Leyburn, a report of 240 cm. SNOWFALL on the 9th in the Dorchester (Dorset) area in 1990 was the heaviest pre-Christmas fall in that area since 9 December 1967. http://booty.org.uk/...e/1975_1999.htm

We managed a different hue of sky around here today, I'd call it Wood Pigeon but Dulux call it Steel Symphony, sounds so much more appealing than Grey. I think the Sun thought about getting up this morning but thought 'sod it' and stayed put, it got as light as it does just before the Sun comes up, neither light nor dark, kind of 3am-ish summer light. All in all, perfect weather for my faded, dull, blue/grey Landrover to make stealth attacks.

Thanks for the answers folks.

How would that translate into weather on the ground? Would it be a good thing or bad?

But one day you'll get one of those monumental battleground falls of 3ft of level snow with drifts 20ft high and the rest of the country will look on with envy.

I'm probably beyond help, letting loose in the Cairngorm's in the midst of a blizzard with no coat or compass would probably be the kindest thing for all...

Remember you have to do the sacrificial dance too - 12 turns in a clockwise direction, 3 anti-clockwise, a hop, two shimmies and an hokey kokey, all whilst sprinkling lots of white feathers to represent the snow you are summoning. I have on the highest authority (Greywolf) that melting ice makes it snowy here....let's all burn lots of shovels!

What shade is a sky heavily laden with snow? Just saying....... I'm guessing that's where the excitement comes from.

I'd get some ointment for that quick before it spreads....

And I thought you were an innocent angel.....

I thought 50 shades of grey was supposed to be exciting.....there's nowt exciting about the 50 shades in the sky around here, soooooooo bored now, the only change is from Dove to Slate to Battleship to Ashen to Lead and back again.

So two wrongs make a right? With respect, countering rubbish with rubbish merely makes the mountain of trash a little bit higher. The way forward surely would be to remove some, not add to it?

I'm beginning to wonder if all that Mayan end of the world malarkey was to do with the Sun; I'm pretty certain it's either gone out or been nicked, it's not been seen around here for weeks now.

I guess flippant is better than Mystic Meg, thought he'd bought himself a crystal ball.

Erm, it's the 7th today, how can you possibly say what's accurate for 2 weeks hence?

Just waded through umpteen pages of the MOD thread.....I think I can confidently say that all was clearer in Priddy today, despite the top of the Mendip's being completely enshrouded in low cloud. I feel like the girl in the Exorcist.....

I question whether he should be out at all....