jethro

I know I shouldn't and I know I'll probably regret it and I know I'm totally going against all my advice to others, but.....I really can't help getting a little excited by the prospects on offer with this run. Taken another dip into the Mod thread and having read "Yes very hard to be sure of just how accurate this run is-pretty amazing really. I've just run various parameters with Extra and I cannot recall in the 8 years on here seeing any GFS run with the zero isotherm over this area for the whole 384 hours. The 850mb temperature, apart from a short spell as the first Atlantic push ocurs is also as if not colder than I have seen on any run before." from THE most sensible, non ramper on here - John Holmes, ex pro forecaster, feet firmly on the ground. I'm finding it nigh on impossible not to do a happy dance round my kitchen.

If you're reading it right and getting that, then I'm reading it very wrong......there'd be nothing unusual there though, I get a lot wrong. I do think the general idea at the moment is we may get a bit more snow than our fair share.

I know nowt either, it's all just squiggly lines and pretty colours on those model things; I'm just hoping Purple is the colour this season.

He did make another post which to idiot here was pure model gibberish, utterly incomprehensible to moi - reading through the responses, it seems that the NAE threw a potential spanner in the works on Thursday which affected the snowmageddon potential on Friday. However, the chief at the METO has discounted it as a daft idea, thrown out by a computer on the brink of melting point, and that Friday does still have the potential for us to be able to build a village of igloos for all those stealth snowmen to live in. At least I think that's what the general gist was....

We are concerned. Just on blower to UKMO now. 6-12hrs snow possible parts of my area Fri. Not good. Quote from Ian F, taken from the MOD thread, 20 mins ago. Oh damn, a few posts down and he say's: Fri considered 'low probability, severe impact' event currently and we need greater continuity through next 24hrs.

Hang on a second, this has nothing to do with posting style and everything to do with facts. Lets take this back to the graph which spawned this conversation - all the points I raised about why it may not be as accurate, or able to predict the future as you and some others were claiming still stand. You have made no effort to address those basic, scientific facts and instead wandered off down the road of morality. Having picked up the baton of judging folk and whether or not that attitude will endanger people's lives in the future, you then proceed to wave the famine flag again. I repeat, as you are well aware, I was an Aid worker and have 30 odd years of experience/knowledge of this field - your claims are factually wrong. As for providing you with evidence, I've raised those points already - the issues I raised about that graph are fully understood and accepted by scientists, even being highlighted in the last IPCC report. If you can't or won't answer my questions, then that's fine, but don't try and dismiss them by claiming I'm being hurtful or antagonistic. Despite being a MOD I'm bound by all the rules of the code of conduct too, I'm judged by other team members and am expected to set an example, not flout the rules to my advantage as you are suggesting. If you seriously take such a view of my posts, I urge you to report them, let them be judged by other members of the team.

Moral duty? The moral duty is to ensure there is enough food for all, the only connection climate change has to that is the current shortage of feedstuffs due to arable land being diverted away from providing cereal crops for human consumption, and instead devoted to growing bio fuels. That's what panic, exaggeration and cashing in, has created - you still sure of your moral highground? Your moral highground smacks to me of someone trying to get on the band wagon of saving the world and bemoaning anyone who doesn't agree with your prognosis. What that tack achieves is damaging, both to the AGW debate and those in need. What it also overlooks entirely is how people actually live. It's convenient to say those who don't support the ideas of the future that you purport as fact, must as a consequence live a life of wanton waste. You speak of delaying action, how dangerous that may be, is that based on an assessment of your life and the waste you create? I have no guilt on that score, my life is and always has been sustainable, I don't need the big stick of AGW to make me appreciate the impact I could have. Now taking the discussion back to that pretty graph which spawned this conversation, the uncertainties and problems with it that I pointed out remain the same - how about addressing those.

And when the next model run comes out, it may be all change again. I can't be bothered to count how many model runs there are between now and Friday, but it's a lot - they'll all be different and considering we're talking of maybe 100-200 miles difference either way, I wish the best of luck to anyone trying to pin the tail on the Donkey when it comes to the boundary line. Your diagnosis is one option, there are countless others to choose from.

When it comes to Friday, there are no experts......It MAY happen but there again, it MAY not. This really is a keep everything crossed situation. I do however seriously hope that people don't hang on every model run and think that it's gospel, the various options available from the current situation will change right up until the last minute - don't be despondent if the model runs say it isn't happening or you'll be up and down like a yoyo. To give you an example, only last night up here on the Mendips we were supposed to have snow, the forecast was changed at the last minute to reflect this happening - the weather was having none of it, slipped SW and missed us altogether.

It may not be helpful for those looking for confirmation of their own beliefs but for those looking for info on the actual known science, I'd say it's a rough over-view which may help keep things in perspective a bit. Here's the deal Ian, when you cast aside your crystal ball and stop presenting speculation as fact, I'll stop pedantically pointing out that you're clutching it. When you stop extrapolating the unknown into near certainty, I'll stop pointing out all the things we currently have little or no knowledge of. And if you really want to go down the road of drought and Aid, you'd better have more hidden up your sleeve than idle fear mongering and guilt tripping. I know you haven't forgotten that I was an Aid worker, I know you think it's a button you can press, but what you seem to over-look every time you trot this out, is that I've been involved with that field of work all my adult life - that's 30 years-ish; you really want to argue the toss on that subject? As I've told you before, people who live in countries where drought and immense loss of life happens with monotonous regularity, are deserving of more than efforts from ill-informed people jumping on the band wagon and waving their plight around as the latest "must have" accessory. Have some respect.

I'm holding you personally responsible for this near miss....You've heard of the Butterfly theory? Well, if you'd gone to the pub as planned, you'd now be staggering home in a winter wonderland and I'd be eyeing up locations for my first secret snowman. Someone asked earlier about finding out how high you are??? Go here, put in your postcode, click the zoom out button once or twice until it brings up the map with contour lines (orange wiggly things with numbers on them) find the one closest to your house, the number on the line is meters above sea level. http://www.streetmap.co.uk/

Pedantic or aiming to get a sense of balance without the claims of "we know it all already"? Currently we know the Sun varies in output - this is based on TSI alone. Very, very recently Solar Physicists have realised that Solar variance has far greater consequences other than just TSI - they're still trying to figure out what exactly. Ocean currents - we know of some currents and their cycles, we have very little idea of how they work or indeed why, let alone duration of events. Clouds - we know they exist. We don't know how they work when it comes to balancing climate or indeed impacting climate - some may cool, some warm. Deforestation - which has the greater impact on emissions, chopping trees down or clearing ground and planting new? Mature trees consume minuscule amounts of CO2 compared to young, growing trees. Urbanisation and the creation of hard landscape where once arable land/soil existed before - locally, urbanisation creates a warming impact. Globally however, it isn't such an easy equation. Tarmac and concrete do not emit CO2, so other than their manufacture, have little impact on global temps. Soil on the other hand isn't so inert. If left undisturbed it will capture carbon, once tilled it releases it - how much arable soil is left unturned? None. Again, not an easy sum to figure out when it comes to good or bad. The list goes on and on.......All those certainties that people claim enable them to make pretty graphs showing how much of the warming is due to mankind, are really little more than pretty pictures to entertain. As for climate change happening, of course it's happening, climate isn't a static entity. As for playing the lives lost due to it card, that really smacks of.....I don't know, desperation, clutching at straws, possibly trying to guilt trip people into signing up to every claim made by the pro AGW gang? Since time immemorial there have been weather incidents which caused devastation and loss of life. Are there more of them now or do we just know more about them? A couple of hundred years ago, how many people in this country would have heard about a hurricane in the USA or a Tsunami in the Tropics? IMO, the graph posted above should once again be treated to the Mark Twain philosophy..... There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.

That's working on the very large assumption that we know all we need to know about natural drivers. That currently is an impossible assumption to make.

That's pretty, not a bleeding clue what any of it means..... Today has been one of those when I wished I could be a gardener in the Southern Hemisphere; it's cold, wet and blinking horrible under foot.

Put your postcode into the search, that will bring your house up on an OS map, click the zoom out button once or twice and it will take you to a scale which shows contour lines (the Orange wiggly ones with numbers on them). Find your house, see which wiggly line is closest, the number on that line will tell you your height in meters above sea level.

For anyone who doesn't have a NW subscription, here is a free radar site: http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ And for anyone who doesn't know how high they are, here's a good site to get your height above sea level: http://www.streetmap.co.uk/

Again, been out all day so no idea what's happened or is likely to happen but I can report, it's blinking freezing around here. Went for a walk across the Mendip Plateau this afternoon, glorious sunshine and it's like a winter wonderland up there, everything still snow covered and frozen solid - it was so cold we were absolutely forced to seek shelter and sustenance in the local pub, for the dog's sake, obviously...... So, any snow due tonight?

Stumbled across this whilst looking for something else... Boar - thought you may find it interesting. Having lost the will to live after reading no more than the abstract, I can't comment on the content, never mind the conclusions. http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/3/173/2012/esd-3-173-2012.pdf

I reckon it's his day job, this being the weekend, he's out doing stuff that we all do; I enjoy my job but I wouldn't do it for nowt on my days off.

Congrats on the promotion Rob, does it come with a chic new hat?

I wouldn't take the radar as gospel, I'm quite a few miles south of the M4 and it's still snowing here.

But the problem with the above Ian is a clear example of why Cap'n & Boar reached the end of their tether in the first place. Their approach was one of exploration to see if current climate could be explained without AGW, your approach is explore everything having already decided that AGW is the culprit. Their intention was never to disprove AGW nor prove natural was responsible - merely unravel a puzzle. Your approach is to defend AGW at all costs - that's not scientific but a really good way of stifling debate.

Having said it won't settle...... it is. Just had a really heavy spurt with flakes the size of 50p's

I've been out all day so haven't caught up with the thread or the latest advice as to what we can expect tonight, but I can report it's snowing here! It's very wet snow and everywhere's soggy from the rain today/overnight so it's going to have to get a lot heavier to stand any chance of settling, but it is snow, not sleet.