Don
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Posts posted by Don
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*Stormforce~beka* no, what’s that?!
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Very warm and sunny today although got a bit cloudier later. Caught the sun again!
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My 12.9C guess is almost a definite bust now!
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12 hours ago, karyo said:
I think so too, I just want to see how bullish they are going to be. Some of the released forecasts are going for a record breaker season while all go for above average!
I wonder if a very active hurricane season will lead to yet another hot September?!
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Addicks Fan 1981 all the time we have these high SST's it's going to be very difficult to get a month much below average, particularly compared to 61-90!
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13 hours ago, karyo said:
NOAA will issue their hurricane season forecast in a few days, it will be interesting to see if they also go with an above average season like every other forecast has done so far this spring.
I suspect they will go for a whopper, but we shall see!
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cheese Yes, summer 2007 was a surprise because it appeared that CC had stepped up a gear up until April (warmest on record at the time) but then an average May, followed by that washout summer!
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Had a thundery shower this afternoon and was very humid this evening!
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raz.org.rain I look back on 2007 and 2008 with fond memories now as they marked the start of the 'cooler/cold period' lasting until 2013, when the rot set in once again!
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*Stormforce~beka* I think I can count the number of times I wore a winter coat on one hand last winter lol!
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20 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:
Despite hovering around 23°c and being mostly sunny all day with no breeze, there's still a lot of people out in jackets.
Back to shorts and t-shirt for me today!
10 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:Could we break the May CET record if this comes off?
I suspect so!
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22 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:
The 38.5C we experienced on Aug 10th in Faversham in Kent held the record for 16 years, until it was surpassed in 2019.
The record set in 2019 didn't last long and I wonder how long the current 2022 record will last?!
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Horrible here this afternoon after a dry morning!
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Addicks Fan 1981 Yes, it's a shame Mushymanrob no longer posts here!
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After a week of dry and increasingly warm conditions, back to cooler temps today with rain this afternoon and evening.
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I'm thinking early June at this stage.
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WYorksWeather Not just yet and like I said around this time in April, I was almost convinced I had gone way too low. It is strange how we have yet to record a May CET in the 14's, especially in recent years and the fact the current record is now 191 years old!!
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I said this last month about my April guess being too low but ended up being fairly close to the mark, courtesy of a largely cool/cold second half. However, my 12.9C guess for May looks to be a major under estimate currently!
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SakuraOwl Not if it's also the most humid on record, too!!
Very warm today and only a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon with a brief shower. Dry again now.
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39 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:
It's just that the odds indicate that it pretty much must happen at some stage, since I can't really believe that we've moved so far in the last two years that e.g. a December 2022 repeat will never happen again. Even if you added a bit on to the anomaly it'd still be below average if the same synoptic had repeated last winter.
I'm 100% sure we will have a month with a CET below the 1961-90 average, but the question is how rare will they be now? December 2022 was fairly significantly (not exceptionally) below the 61-90 average but would have been notably cold had it not turned much milder in the run up to Christmas lasting through to New Year. However, what has changed since then is the record breaking warm north Atlantic SST's, which most likely prevented us from having a month below the 61-90 average in 2023? All the time the SST's are at the level they are now, any milder spell is likely to counteract any cold periods during a monthly period.
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WYorksWeather my hunch is that we will beat today's max, but we shall see!
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23 minutes ago, Frigid said:
Just wondering when a shift to a cooler regime will take place, it has to break at some point.
At some point, but how cool is the question as it would appear climate change has stepped up a gear in recent years?!
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Stunning show tonight!
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Taken a short while ago!
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E.N.S.O. Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Don
karyo Ah ok, thanks for the explanation. I was aware that while there was a link to hot Septembers and an active hurricane seasons, plenty of cooler Septembers also occur during active seasons!