ghrud

But, if we had had the computers able to model this scenario in advance in 1978 would they have predicted that outcome? Probably yes! Is there anything resembling this being modelled at the moment? No.... but we can hope.

Oops wrong room... I thought this was the Arctic Ice Discussion, sorry!

Perhaps a thread should be started where we can talk about both without being chastised. Climate is a global phenomenon after all?

10% of what... what is the starting point. 10% of an average of the last 30 years data? 30 years in climate is like the blink of the eye.

Mistake or just comparing late February to early March?

Climatalogical averages for England and Wales data page seems to be stuck in May??

It's been reported on the Real Science WEB site that the Arctic ice has started to re-freeze suggesting this one of the shortest melts recorded this year. Anyone like to comment on this?

You're making the assumption that a theory about CO2 adversely warms the atmosphere is true. Keep an open mind and look at it objectively. The ice may well be completely gone in 20 years or so but the reason may have nothing to do with CO2.

Anybody know how you tell how old a piece of ice is? Ice re-freezes from below as well as to the sides, snow accumulates on the surface and due to ocean storms and swell ice slabs ride over each other. Is there a definitive guide to measure ice age other than from its thickness?

Yes but for how long... six weeks? The equator would be at that rate 52 weeks a year.

We're probably facing the same odds of the next ice-age starting sometime soon as the IPCC being right with their predictions... shouldn't we also be preparing for the possibility of this event too? Even a minor shift in climate either way could be a disaster for mankind!

I wouldn't call GW ignorant or a liar either... just very blinkered some times. Also, posting more than 8000 times doesn't make you an expert, it just means you like to talk a lot. I do sometimes find something interesting to read in his posts though. Just to give some balance here is a quote from thedailygreen.com from back in March this year. Lets see what happens this winter...

Everyone to their own... it's entirely up to you what you get up to in your bathroom.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11322310 They don't have enough data yet to prove/disprove anything! It would take centuries to collect enough data by which time the evidence would be purely academic as by then we’d already know the answer. By the time we get to 2050 my grandchildren will probably look back and wonder what all the fuss was about as they excavate a hole through the winter ice-cover of the English Channel to do a bit of fishing. :unsure:

On a glacial time scale the last 30 years is just a blink of an eye and therefore the current data record we have is meaningless, purely academic. Wait a couple of hundred years then we can all debate whether the world is about to end. :unsure:

I think it's code for Bartlett high! :lol:

Wouldn't a HP stuck to the south and west of us give a west or NW airflow

When it comes down to it computer models are just a tool. There always has be to someone human at the end. For now anyway So lets hope the humans are right.

I've just look at this and thought exactly the same thing. So everything still confused a the moment hopefully we can get some concensus in the next couple of runs.

I think the main 3 are in pretty good agreement up until T96 at which point FI begins. Hopefully, tomorrow we'll have a better insight but my view is two rights don't make the other wrong. If you know what I mean. :excl:

I think all the models have a bias towards the Atlantic and rightly so as most of our weather originates there. Taking this in to consideration the fight that appears to be lined up for next Wednesday may be a closer match that some believe. On several recent runs of both the GFS and ECM a small depression is show to run just south of or along the English channel around what is now T120. How or if this actually develops, I believe is the key as to whether we have another bite of the cherry. (That’s if you’re a cold lover.)

I think he (Michael Fish) was suggesting that the Barlett High, which isn't (it would have to sit over Iberia to be a Batlett), will join forces with the mega high to our east which will help it re-assert itself. This is an idea the models seem to have backed away from at the moment, but lets see.

I think this article should have been saved for the 1st of April. :lol:

As well as the early start to winter being reported in the media also noted two reports about age of sea ice which contradict each other. Full article can be found here http://fourwinds10.com...and Full article here http://news.bbc.co.ukHope we don't have to wait too long to find out who's right!

Does anyone have a view on whether the early (record breaking) start to winter in parts of North America and Northern Europe will have an effect on our coming winter period? http://austriantimes.at/news/General_News/2009-10-12/17147/Early_snow_records_set_to_be_broken http://www.montanasnewsstation.com/Global/story.asp?S=11295113