suffolkboy_
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Posts posted by suffolkboy_
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Can I be an idiot too? I was almost spot on with my July CET "prediction". My below average August prediction is also looking quite good.
It's natural cycles. We are overdue for some coolness. IMVH (and non-scientific)O.
Exactly, if you look at the CETs for the last 12 months, the above average months are way above, yet the below average months are only just below. This has been the general pattern for a long time unfortunately. I would love a run of below average months now.
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Wow ! Didn't expect it to feel quite this stormy this morning. Very dark, with thick stratus. Mean windspeed of 28mph, gusting to 40mph. Occasional heavy showery rain.
Not the best day for taking the dog for a walk!
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Very true, over the past 1000 years the climate has been warmer and colder before cars and planes were about.
Well, this is often my argument, we have been under ice sheets before, this is how alot of the valleys of the UK were created, there is very clear evindence of it. What caused these to receed back?.... a warming trend, global warming at that time?... Yes, caused by man?....no!
I'm sure it has been brought up many times before, but by taking ice cores it is very easy to look at how the amount of carbon-dioxide has changes over time, and there is a very, very clear pattern. \this I belive is probably causd by forest fires. What is to stop a forest fire taking over a giant amount of forest and burning for 20 years or more, there were no humans to put it out all those years ago! A huge amount of carbon-dioxide would have been produced, thus warming the earth via the greenhouse effect. The forest grows back, oxygen amounts increase more and more, until another forest fire. A giant cycle.
It may not be carbon dioxide at all. Who knows!?
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Just out of interest. Who knows what happened about this huge future climate forecast , using other people's computers. I seem to remember that it was going to take a few years. As "The Eye in the Sky" said, we don't know very much about what drives climate at all, so what results we do get have to be taken with a pinch of salt.
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The media never helps matters by blowing everything way out of proportion. For example, on the news tonight one presenter said something along the lines of, "hurricane dean is a prime example of what global warming will throw at us in the future; hurricanes are becomeing more and more deadly". Well ofcourse hurricanes have become more deadly over the past 100 years, when a hurricane hit land 100 years ago it hit mostly uninhabited forest, but nowadays it hits a town with a population of thousands of people; hence a hurricane now causes alot more damage than it did, so is seen as "more powerfull".
The vast majority of people in the U.K have no idea of why the weather happens. I play bowls, and the number of old people who say to me, " this thunder must have come in with the tide", they don't have a clue. People just take what the media say as gospel.
Another thing which really gets on my nerves, is when people say that the melting of the north pole will cause sea levels to rise, NO IT WON'T!! The north pole is one whoping great ice cube, it is already displaceing it's mass of water. Try putting a large peice of ice in a bowl, marking the water level, wait for it to melt, then look at the water level, it won't change. It's not all doom and gloom, the earth is doing what it intends to, what we should be more worried about is the using up of fossil fuels, and what we will fuel ourselves with when it runs out. Don't worry about mother nauture, she knows what she's doing.
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No sign of anything major on the Radar yet which doesn't match in with the TV forecasts. Just looking at the Net Weather EXtra forecast and the predicted rainfall amount so far is about spot on. Not bad.
The rain was heavy if you look on the radar about 7am, but since it has lost alot of intensity, and is now quite patchy, i've only seen 0.8mm here, I don't expect more than 3mm, unless we catch a heavy shower or two this afternoon. I don't think that many places will be seeing the 20mm which was widely forecast, and I doubt anywhere will see 50mm which was mentioned.
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I would say that 30c would easily be acheiveable right into September this year, simply because there is so much hot air over Eastern Europe, which isn't that far away, with the right synoptics, we could see the hottest September on record, unlikely, but the heat is sitting there waiting.
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In these sorts of situations it takes common sense. "Water water everywhere bit not a drop to drink" - you may not be able to drink it, but there is no reason you can't use it to flush the toilet!?
If alot of electricity is out then surely alot of people are off work - make this week you family holiday, go to a B&B somewhere.
Plan a day out somewhere there is water, just a daytrip with the family. Go to a swimming pool and use the showers there, you may have to travel 40 miles but it's worth it.
If you completely run out of drinking water - drink booze!
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How are these rainfall totals for England and Wales calculated, as obviously it varies alot over the country. Is it done in a similar way to the CET?
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The flooding of 1947 occured in the Spring of 1947, not so much the summer. It came after a cold and very snowy winter, and this was alot of the reason for the flooding, large amounts of snowmelt and frozen ground was the main cause of the problem. The winter of 1947/48 was not at all as cold. In my opinion there does not seem to be any correlation between the summer and winter temperatures; we could easily now go into the mildest winter ever, who knows!? I don't think we will see much below an average winter to be honest.
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This muct be on eon the wettest places in the country at the moment!
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Send it all to me please!! I actually want all that rain, I thought it was going to be all mine earlier in the week!
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This is really dissapointing for me. I was the only one on here who wanted 4 inches of rain today, and East Anglia for a long time looked like it would be one of the worst affected areas, yet i've had only 0.6mm since midnight. Looks like pretty much nothin is going to hit the East either! Sent the rain this way if you don't want it!!!
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Since JohnHolmes posted a comment complaining about Jimmyay's comment, everybody has started ganging up on him, very unfair, lets get back to what could be a memorable rain event for the south.
It is this sort of setup which is really quite exiting. Models generally struggle with this kind of setup, most of it depends on nowcasting. Quie often, it ends up being a downgrade, with it not looking as bad as it forst did, but could this be one of those cases when it worse than predidcted? eg the front stalls? I can't wait!
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Looking at the NetWeather radar, there is already thundery activity within that rain over the Bay of Biscay towards Brest (only the French could call somewhere Brest and not find it funny
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I honestly can't remember the last time when the South of the U.K was due to see up to 100mm of rain. Yorkhire and other surrounding areas got hit by these sorts of amounts as we all know - the result as we all know was major flooding. However, these areas are used to seeing high rainfall amounts, and so natural drainage is more used to this, and can drain faster, but for us down here in the south, 100mm is 2 months worth!! The river in my village floods after 12mm of rain, so 100mm in one day would have major flooding.
In the early 1990s, I remember we saw two inches ina day, and that flooded shops in a nearby town badly, so tomorrow could be very bad indeed!!
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Well July looks like maybe being the first below average month this year, and the first in a long, long time I think, we havn't had many in the last 3 years!!
I think this Autumn could be good for storms, I seem to remember that 1987 was very wet during the summer, and look what happened that Autumn!
My ideal situation would be at least 2 or 3 more below average months between now and November, leaving SSTs below average. if this happened then it only helps everything to cool down - winter in affect starts earlier, giving the sea an even longer period to cool down, leading to a general cool down pattern over the following years untill a long hot spell occurs. I know its not all that simple, but that is what i beleive "global warming" is, we are in one huge cycle, we will have hot, and cold periods, we are lucky to be in the temperate climate we are in.
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There is plenty of very warm air sitting not too far away over in Western Europe, over 40C it many western countries, hottest summer ever with forest fires. All we need is the right synoptics as Duncan said. Either way, if things don't change its not good for many, western europe gets baked, and we get very damp indeed, and no nice evenings to sit outside the pub!
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No chance were they 4 kilograms, that would mean that they contain 4 litres of water. If it was a cube then it would be 16cmx16cmx16cm (6"x6"x6") of water. I cant remember the formula for the volume of a sphere, but it would be very large. There is no way that they were that size
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--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Paul B @ 8 Jun 2007, 02:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->Well it was an exciting morning here in eastern Suffolk, with a lot of rain this morning and plenty of thunder and lightning. I ended up with 27mm here at home, but at work, nearer the coast still, they had 33mm, with lots of thunder and lightning.
The wind turbine at Lowestoft copped an unfortunate one, when it got hit by lightning earlier today.
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Here is the 24 hour cumulative rainfall. Looks like most of the heavy stuff only brushed the coastline:
Well I am right under the red part on that map, however i've only see 8mm, i think as these were high level storms, alot was evaporated again before it reached the ground.
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Nothing very special at all really. A few rumbles of thunder, a few flashes of sheet lightning. Strangely the rain was no way near how heavy it showed up on the radars. Most of the rain around 3mm/hr, got 7mm now. Dissapointing really. No more than a slightly soggy morning, with the odd rumble of thunder.
I doubt anywhere saw the 100mm which the metoffice said was possible. I would guess that the most anybody saw from this was an inch or so.
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What confuses me is that the rain is nowhere near as heavy as any of the radars are showing!? Only 3mm/hr here where the radar is showing 25mm/hr!? Is this beacause it's high level meaning evaporation before it hits the ground?
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Looks like all the lightning activity is out to sea!
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Is the summer of 2007 a turning point?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I personally don't think that a couple of cool months can signal a cool down, however, I think that if over the next 12 months we were to see say 9 or 10 months below average, we could possibly say that "global warming" was slowing down.
I personally think that the sea is the secret. The constant run of warm summers and mild winters aid in warming the giant storage heater known as the sea. As it continues to warm, any air mass near us are warmed. Its difficult to get out of that pattern. We need a run of cool summers to cool the sea down. However that energy has to go somewhere. There is alot we don't know about the workings of our climate.