suffolkboy_
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Posts posted by suffolkboy_
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Currently -0.3C here, so if we see a shower it should be of snow as the dewpoints are ofcourse low enough. Seen plenty of showers through the day, typical there are none now! Winds way too light
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Ok, here goes my punt.
I think the lowest daytime maxima initially will be on maybe Saturday/Sunday night in a snowcovered area inland with a high of -0.5C
Lowest minima, probably Bedford/Cambridge area at -6c
However, with snowcover in place, if the cold spell does continue with a possibility of even a surface high with much lighter winds, daytime maxima of -3C at Benson, nightime min around Benson again at -11C. However, can't see this happening until after Christmas. I have a feeling the cold will continue to hold on and the breakdown constantly put back by the models, and cold will never be very far away.
Purely my thoughs, please don't shoot me down!
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Thats all well and good but imo a lengthy dry cold spell isn't that interesting , we had a lengthy cold spell early this year already.
I'm a snow lover so completely biased in that regard
We need the cold air first. The longer it is established the more chance snow will occur. Anyway, don't worry about what the models show precip wise at the moment, with a warm North Sea plenty of moisture if never too far away.
Please remember though everybody, don't take anything past 72hrs as gospel, as even inside that timeframe there will be change which multiply down the line.
This is the rollercoaster of model watching, especially looking so far ahead. There will be upgrades and downgrades, some big some small.
On a personal view I would like to see sustained very cold temperatures. Snow is my worry for once it is actually at my front door!!
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-15c Braemar 29th December 1995.
For a more low level reading -12.1c at Shawbury 12th December 1981
....it's all about 81 and 95 for December.
Lowest daytime maxima -6.0c somehwere in the highlands of Scotland
Lowest minimum -14.0c somehwere in the highlands of Scotland.
Thanks for that, have added it to the first post.
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Hi everyone,
With all the excitement of some charts reminiscent of yesteryear around, and the prospect of the best cold spell in a number of years, I thought it would be nice to have a bit of light-hearted fun guessing the lowest daytime maximum temperature and lowest daytime minimum.
Whether your are a ramper of someone more pessimistic about the upcoming cold spell, please join in and post your punt here, just like our monthly CET threads.
Please post:
Lowest Daytime maxima with the location
Lowest Daytime minima with the location
No prizes i'm afraid, but maybe the weather will give us all a treat!
Just some figures I could find, not suggesting it will get this cold ofcourse :wub:
Lowest nightime minimas on record:
-27.2 Altnaharra (Highland) 30 Dec 1995
-25.1 Shawbury (Shropshire) 13 Dec 1981
Lowest Daytime Maxima
-15c Braemar 29th December 1995
-12.1c Shawbury 12th December 1981
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GFS parallel run shows practically no ppn for the south from Thursday onwards :-(
The hard part is getting the cold here in the first place, so that is all we need to be looking at to start with. Once the cold has arrived, then that's the time to worry about where any moisture will come from. Looking at this forum, most moisture looks to be in people's pants at the moment!
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How can you justify this. The current run does not suggest anything of the wintry stuff at christmas. Yes on previous runs it has but currently it doesnt. Nobody can give more than id say 10% accuracy for what lies in store xmas day. there is 15 days left to go, an eternity in terms of weather forecasting, we still dont no whats guna happen next week yet alone in a fortnights time. And if next weeks weather does come off its guna take something special to keep it here for such a long period of time... something i do not see happening, we are guna be lucky at this rate to have a severe cold spell yet alone one last for more than 10 days..... more like 8-1 to be realistic :lol:
SNOW-MAN2006
What we do have to remember though is that cold air is very dense, and with the majority of Europe covered in sub-zero air, the Atlantic will have a job to push it out of the way. This sort of set-up, once established, proves very difficult to change in a hurry. This is why people have to remember, even if the charts aren't showing snow in yor area within the reliable timeframe, the potential is still there for days to come.
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Ok CET provisonal to the 8th December is 6.1c. Thats likely to rise to cira 6.5c by the 11th then down hill
People with real Ramp whats it going to be end of December ??
Say -3c daytime -12 night who is going to do the Maths ??
Im sorry I think people should be on the pavements its plain silly to walk on the roads in nasty weather.
Re the elderly Im sure most of the senior forecasters on here will be ok.
If my maths is correct -0.6C going by your figures haha
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I'm all for ramping, but I think some people's expectations are a little too high!
If the charts still show what they are showing come Saturday evening, then I will be excited, at the moment, I am 'interested'. The movement of this high is very important, and even though there is agreement among all major models, it's not "set in stone" yet.
Sorry to be pecamistic, but I've been hurt too many times before.
However, even if this doesn't come to fruition, it still bodes well for the next few weeks ahead, and into the new year.
Personally I see the chances like this:
All charts backtrack at the last minute to give a brief settled interlude before a return to milder weather 5%
A slack easterly bringing temperatures above freezing for less than a week, very little snow 40%
A slack Easterly followed by a more intense easterly after next weekend 25%
A very cold 7-10 days, maybe an ice day or two. 20%
A Bitter 7-10 days, many ice days (maxes below -3C on more than a couple of days), snow settling for more than 5 days 10%
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I own a cottage half way between Windemere and Coniston Lakes, about 3 miles from Hawkshead. Luckily it's a fair way from the river, however, there are other homes in the village that have come very close to flooding before, hope they are ok! They've had 160mm of rain in the past 24hours!
I'll be phoning my mate tomorrow to see how everything is looking!
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5.6mm of rain and a maximum gust of 38mph. Not exactly severe here today. Haven't had any twigs broken off, let alone branches or whole trees!
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http://www.landsendweather.info/met/mainframe.htm
Wind increasing on every update at Land's End. Sustained 41mph, gusting 71mph now.
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Lands End has already seen a gust of 71mph
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Winter is (in my opinion), the most exciting period of the year for model watching. I know that emotions are high, and if everyone was to abide by those rules it would make it all the more enjoyable, unfortunatly I can't see everyone following these rules. Still, let's hope for a winter to remember, that will ultimatly make everyone happy in the end (except mild lovers ofcourse, although I think they are by far the minority on these forums by the looks of it!)
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There is absolutely no point of looking at any forecast for 7 weeks time. Even the general setup is impossible to predict at this range, let alone whether or not snow will be a likely outcome of that setup. I think trying to forecast the set-up for 3-4 weeks time would be a stab in the dark. I will only start taking "White Christmas" forecasts seriously 2 weeks before Christmas day.
In all, if the forecast says snow, don't pin your hopes up. If it says a mild Atlantic onslaught, try not to get too upset. You may as well flip a coin!
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-17.0, Tulloch Bridge, late January
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If it's mild according to Tommy Tucker,
The the winter's going to be a real cold affair.
Haha, I love it!
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"Many haws, Many snaws; Many sloes, Many cold toes"
I presume the "Haws" is Hawthorn? But I certainly know for a fact there are no end of Sloes this year, I picked mine yesterday(a bit late some may say). It only took me about 10 minutes to get as many as I needed, whereas the last few years have taken me no end of time and alot more reaching into thorns!
"If the oak bear much mast (acorns) it foreshows a long and hard winter"
Haven't really noticed oak trees producing giant amounts of acorns this year, although to be honest I haven't been looking, i'm much more intersted in the sloes for my gin!!!
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13.8mm here so far this month. Pretty dry! Everything is very brown, the dry August didn't help that either.
I cut the grass for our local pub (lazy boggers), and I have only cut it twice in 8 weeks, rather than it really needing a cut every week.
267.4 mm so far this year, but then it's always dry around here.
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Bolts coming down now within 5 miles of my location. Rain gradually getting heavier, this storm is so slow moving!
I went for a drive Paul and it was well worth it! I went towards Ipswich, about 10 miles south of me. Tuddenham st Martin was being hit hard, the road turned like a river; I was worried about getting the car stuck at times!
I've got home to find only 4mm of rain so far, but plenty of close and loud lightning! Amazing how much it can change in 8 miles!
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Just saw it on out local news, and it defnately shows it touching down, so hence it was indeed a tornado!
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Did anyone see this storm last night?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8089268.stm
I could see and hear it clearly my south-west, but it didn't move at all in about 2 hours! Some areas look to have taken a bit of a battering!
A man called into local radio earlier and said when driving from Sudbury to Stowmarket the hail was deep enough to resemble snow.
The video shows quite a well formed funnel cloud, wish the storm could have moved about 5 miles! Typical!
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Hi Kaaren,
Nope, not settling here, I'm just on the boarder of Greater London, although quite high up. But, if it gets heavier, maybe it will settle.
Any snow coming down in Norfolk or Suffolk?
I'm heading back home to near Framlingham tonight, so i'm wondering the same. I won't be back until 10 pm or so, so could be tricky by that time.
East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
The Anglia Weather forecast looked very good. In nutshell:
Light patchy snow tomorrow, more so the further North
More snow Thursday/Friday - 5-10cm
Brighter by Saturday
Return to heavier snow on Sunday
Most days showed a max of 1C and mins of -2C to -4C